Dollar Slips again on Caution over US Economy

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
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Dollar Slips again on Caution over US Economy

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo

The dollar slipped on Tuesday after declining for a week, weighed down by the Federal Reserve's caution over the economy and as US lawmakers came closer to passing a bill expected to widen the nation's fiscal deficit.

The greenback sold off broadly on Monday following last week's downgrade of the US sovereign rating by Moody's on deficit concerns. Now attention turns to a critical vote in Washington over US President Donald Trump's sweeping tax cuts.

Dollar selling continued on Tuesday, leaving the US currency down 0.35% against the yen at 144.305 hitting a fresh 12-day low. The euro rose 0.14% to $1.1259, and the Swiss franc strengthened, pushing the dollar down 0.2% to 0.83280 francs, Reuters reported.

Bucking the trend was the Australian dollar which edged lower after the Reserve Bank of Australia's cut benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points and left the door open to further easing in the months ahead. It was last down 0.59% to $0.64195, trimming a 0.8% gain on Monday.

"Ultimately, the RBA's statement does not indicate that it is considering pausing or ending the interest rate cycle. This is why the AUD took a slight hit this morning," Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank, wrote in a note.

But traders remain focused on the US, with Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic telling CNBC on Monday the U.S. central bank may only be able to cut interest rates by a quarter point over the rest of the year given concerns about rising inflation stoked by higher tariffs.

Trump is expected to join the congressional debate over his tax bill on Tuesday. The vote comes after Moody's stripped the US government of its top-tier credit rating, citing concerns over the nation's growing $36.2 trillion debt pile.

"The market is still very wary of the lack of austerity coming from the fiscal side in the US" said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank.

"We think that is potentially a driver for dollar weakness over the coming quarters as the market is likely to demand a higher premium to lend money to the US," he added.

Trump's bill would add $3 trillion to $5 trillion to the debt, according to nonpartisan analysts. Ballooning fiscal debt, trade frictions, and weakened confidence have weighed on US assets. The US dollar index has tumbled as much as 10.6% from its January highs, one of the sharpest retreats for a three-month period.

The dollar got a breather after Trump paused many of the largest tariffs he announced last month. But comments from Japan's top trade envoy on Tuesday that Tokyo was firm in its anti-tariff stance pointed to no easy off-ramp in the negotiations in the weeks and months ahead.

And in the wake of Trump's tariff turmoil, Britain on Monday agreed to the most significant reset of defence and trade ties with the European Union since Brexit

The pound was last up 0.16% at 1.33840 having risen 0.6% on Monday.

"Optimism surrounding key UK economic data and a major political breakthrough has fuelled sterling’s gains alongside broad-based dollar weakness," wrote George Vessey, lead FX and macro strategist at Convera.

Elsewhere, the Chinese yuan weakened against the as China cut key benchmark lending rates while corporate seasonal demand for dollars remained high.



Oil Prices Slide on Hopes of Diplomacy in Iran War

Oil tankers in Basra port (Reuters)
Oil tankers in Basra port (Reuters)
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Oil Prices Slide on Hopes of Diplomacy in Iran War

Oil tankers in Basra port (Reuters)
Oil tankers in Basra port (Reuters)

Oil prices slid to their lowest in more than a week on Monday as investors hoped for diplomatic progress on the Iran war due to this week's UN meeting.

Brent crude futures and US West Texas Intermediate crude touched their lowest since September 10 earlier on Monday. The Brent contract for November was at $102.09 a barrel at 0655 GMT, down $1.78, or 1.71%, after settling 0.91% lower on Friday, Reuters said.

The WTI October contract that is expiring on Tuesday fell $1.97, or 1.96%, to $98.33 a barrel following a ‌1.58% drop in the ‌previous session.

"It seems that a degree of risk premium is ‌being ⁠removed from oil prices ⁠on hopes that a diplomatic path to de-escalate the US-Iran war may arrive this week," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

"Whether that hope proves to be warranted or not is another question. Time will tell."

WTI broke a key psychological support at $100 a barrel while some investors may have rolled over their positions in the October contract a day ahead of expiry to November, a Singapore-based broker said.

Iran and the US exchanged new threats on Sunday, although President Donald Trump said ⁠he would be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is ‌expected to be in New York this week for ‌the United Nations General Assembly.

Iran has conveyed its conditions to mediators for re-engaging in negotiations aimed at ‌ending the war with the US, Al Jazeera cited Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, as ‌saying in an interview on Saturday.

On Monday, a spokesman ‌for the Revolutionary Guards, Hossein Mohebbi, said Iran would use new weapons and target locations not previously attacked if the US launched a ⁠new offensive against it, ⁠according to the Fars news agency.

China has asked Iran to help rein in the Houthis after an appeal to Beijing following the attacks, according to three Iranian sources familiar with the matter.


Gold Slips as Focus Remains on Middle East, Rate Outlook

Gold bars, each weighing 1000 grams, displayed at a gold and silver refinery in Vienna (AFP)
Gold bars, each weighing 1000 grams, displayed at a gold and silver refinery in Vienna (AFP)
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Gold Slips as Focus Remains on Middle East, Rate Outlook

Gold bars, each weighing 1000 grams, displayed at a gold and silver refinery in Vienna (AFP)
Gold bars, each weighing 1000 grams, displayed at a gold and silver refinery in Vienna (AFP)

Gold prices slipped on Monday as market participants assessed developments in the Middle East and their implications for inflation and interest rates.

Spot gold fell 0.3% to $4,362.60 per ounce by 0417 GMT after hitting a one-week high on Friday. US gold futures were down 0.6% at $4,400.20, Reuters reported.

Iran and the United States exchanged new threats, with President ‌Donald Trump ‌warning Iran would fail economically or face its ‌leadership ⁠being wiped out ⁠if it didn't make a deal, and the Iranian military saying it would retaliate harshly to any fresh attack.

"The focus remains on geopolitics, oil and the reaction in bond yields. For gold to gain meaningful upside traction, a clear move lower in oil and/or bond yields is likely required," said Tim Waterer, chief market ⁠analyst at KCM Trade.

"Gold may trade in a ‌roughly $4,200 to $4,580 range in the near ‌term."

Oil prices fell on hopes diplomacy in the Iran war will ‌get a chance this week amid a UN meet.

The prospect of a new global rate-tightening cycle has come into focus as some of the world's top central banks ‌raise rates and signal more may be needed to tame inflation fueled by the Iran war.

The Bank ⁠of Japan ⁠became the latest big central bank to tighten on Friday, following rate increases by the Federal Reserve earlier that week and the European Central Bank the week before.

Though gold is often seen as an inflation hedge, rising rates tend to curb its demand by making interest-bearing assets more attractive.

Analysts at Standard Chartered said in a note that gold remains volatile but continues to find firm downside support from official-sector demand. They said structural drivers remain in place to lift prices, albeit at a slower pace.

Among other metals, spot silver rose 0.2% to $66.37, platinum fell 0.1% to $1,798.31 and palladium added 0.6% at $1,309.65.


Qatar Launches Wealth Fund Division for Domestic Investments

Qatari flag flutters in Doha - AAWSAT/File
Qatari flag flutters in Doha - AAWSAT/File
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Qatar Launches Wealth Fund Division for Domestic Investments

Qatari flag flutters in Doha - AAWSAT/File
Qatari flag flutters in Doha - AAWSAT/File

Qatar's prime minister announced on Sunday the creation of a new division of the Qatar Investment Authority dedicated to developing domestic investments.

"We aim to expand the role of the private sector in driving Qatar's economic growth," Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said as he announced the new division, Doha Investment, at a special edition of the Qatar Economic Forum in New York.

The annual gathering was cancelled in May, following weeks of Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf states, including Qatar, according to Reuters.

"It will support our strongest companies, help emerging businesses grow, deepen capital markets and attract international capital and expertise to contribute to this effort," he added.

The new division will operate as the dedicated manager of QIA's local portfolio, initially overseeing 45 state-owned enterprises that represent roughly one-third of the wealth fund's total assets, according to Sheikh Faisal bin Thani Al Thani, Qatar's minister of commerce and industry. He will serve as managing director and vice-chairman of Doha Investment.

Sheikh Faisal described the division not as a new creation but a consolidation, adding that the step has been under consideration for more than a decade.