Gold Falls, US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Key US Inflation Data

The employee of a currency exchange shop counts US dollar banknotes in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico July 27, 2023. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez/File Photo
The employee of a currency exchange shop counts US dollar banknotes in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico July 27, 2023. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez/File Photo
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Gold Falls, US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Key US Inflation Data

The employee of a currency exchange shop counts US dollar banknotes in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico July 27, 2023. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez/File Photo
The employee of a currency exchange shop counts US dollar banknotes in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico July 27, 2023. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez/File Photo

Gold prices fell on Friday as the US dollar ticked higher and investors remained cautious ahead of key US inflation data due later in the day to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory.

Spot gold was down 0.7% at $3,292.28 an ounce as of 1145 GMT. Bullion is down 1.9% so far this week.

US gold futures fell 0.8% to $3,290.30.

The dollar rose 0.3% and was on track for a weekly gain, making gold costlier for foreign buyers.

"The US dollar is up slightly, which could be a source of pressure for gold," said Carsten Menke, analyst at Julius Baer.

"Barring a major surprise to the PCE data, I would not expect gold to show a meaningful reaction. That said, the market seems to be a bit more nervous as of late, suggesting that volatility should stay high in the short-term," Menke said. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is due at 1230 GMT. The data is likely to show that inflation rose 2.2% in April, according to economists polled by Reuters, compared with a 2.3% increase in March, Reuters reported.

"With US core PCE looming large, there is some hesitance to take new long positions in gold," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

Investors are currently anticipating 50 basis points worth of Fed rate cuts by the end of this year, starting in October.

Bullion, which is considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty, tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment.

Meanwhile, a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated the most sweeping of President Donald Trump's tariffs on Thursday, a day after a US trade court ruled he had exceeded his authority and ordered an immediate block.

Spot silver fell 0.6% to $33.14 an ounce, platinum eased 1.2% to $1,068.80 and palladium dropped 0.6% to $967.70.



IMF Says US Tax, Spending Bill Runs Counter to Deficit-Cutting Advice

 Pens lay on a table before House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., arrives to sign President Donald Trump's signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts, Thursday, July 3, 2025, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP)
Pens lay on a table before House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., arrives to sign President Donald Trump's signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts, Thursday, July 3, 2025, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP)
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IMF Says US Tax, Spending Bill Runs Counter to Deficit-Cutting Advice

 Pens lay on a table before House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., arrives to sign President Donald Trump's signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts, Thursday, July 3, 2025, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP)
Pens lay on a table before House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., arrives to sign President Donald Trump's signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts, Thursday, July 3, 2025, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP)

The massive US tax and spending bill slated for a final vote in Congress runs counter to the International Monetary Fund's recommendations that Washington reduce fiscal deficits over the medium term, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said on Thursday.

Kozack told a regular news briefing that there was a broad consensus that the Republican bill will add to US fiscal deficits, while the US needs to start a fiscal consolidation.

"From the IMF side, we have been consistent in saying that the US will need to reduce its fiscal deficit over time to put public debt-to-GDP on a decisive downward path," Kozack said. "Of course, the sooner that process starts to reduce the deficit, the more gradual the deficit reduction can be over time."

Kozack said that there were many policy options for the US to reduce deficits and debt, adding: "It is, of course, important to build consensus within the United States about how it will address its these chronic fiscal deficits."

In recent years, the IMF has recommended that the US raise taxes, including on middle income earners, to close fiscal deficits. The Republican tax bill extends 2017 tax cuts and adds new tax breaks for many Americans.

The IMF advice is at odds with the views of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has consistently said that he disagrees with traditional budget forecasts and believes that the so-called "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" will spur additional US economic growth that will boost revenues.

The United States is the biggest shareholder of the IMF. Bessent, who manages the US stake, has criticized the Fund for straying too far from its core economic stability and surveillance missions.

Kozack said that the IMF was examining details of the US legislation and the likely impact on the economy, and will incorporate its analysis into the late July update of its World Economic Outlook global growth forecasts.

The forecasts also will assess the state of play on US tariffs, after President Donald Trump's July 9 deadline to subject many countries to sharply higher duties unless they agree trade deals.