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Iran-Israel Tensions Threaten Global Trade, Energy Security

An aerial view of Haifa Port in northern Israel before the onset of military tensions with Iran (Reuters). 
An aerial view of Haifa Port in northern Israel before the onset of military tensions with Iran (Reuters). 
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Iran-Israel Tensions Threaten Global Trade, Energy Security

An aerial view of Haifa Port in northern Israel before the onset of military tensions with Iran (Reuters). 
An aerial view of Haifa Port in northern Israel before the onset of military tensions with Iran (Reuters). 

The intensifying conflict between Iran and Israel is raising serious concerns over the safety of global trade routes and energy supplies. As the situation escalates, analysts warn of severe repercussions for the global economy, particularly if strategic maritime passages like the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are compromised.

Experts highlight that any disruption to these chokepoints - through which a significant portion of the world’s oil and gas flows - could send shockwaves through international markets.

Rising insurance premiums, increased shipping costs, and a potential surge in energy prices are among the immediate risks. Such instability could accelerate global inflation and weaken already fragile economic growth, especially as major economies face tariff-related pressures and slowing demand.

According to Dr. Fawaz Al-Alamy, a specialist in international trade, the continuing geopolitical unrest is likely to slow global trade growth by over 7% in 2025 and 2026. Sea freight, which carries about 90% of global trade, is particularly vulnerable. Dr. Al-Alamy also points to revised forecasts from major institutions, with trade growth now expected to drop to 2.9% in 2025 and possibly lower in 2026.

The Gulf region, which last year ranked sixth globally in merchandise trade, faces specific challenges. The Strait of Hormuz alone handled over 25% of global seaborne oil and 20% of LNG shipments in 2024 and early 2025. A disruption here would hit Asian markets hardest, as China, India, Japan, and South Korea together receive nearly 70% of Gulf crude exports.

The United States also imports around 500,000 barrels per day from the Gulf via Hormuz, about 7% of its total crude imports. A supply interruption could double oil prices and drive maritime shipping costs up by 60%, leading to slower global growth, reminiscent of post-COVID economic conditions.

Still, Al-Alamy sees potential for regional cooperation. Gulf states could invest in alternative export routes through the Arabian Sea and Red Sea, and strengthen trade ties with Asia, Africa, and Europe. Logistics and tech investments may also help the region emerge as a global trade hub.

 

 

 

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Business

Gold Drops over 1% as Thin Trading, Profit‑taking Weigh

An Indian woman tries on gold jewelry at a jewelry store in Bangalore (EPA)
An Indian woman tries on gold jewelry at a jewelry store in Bangalore (EPA)
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Gold Drops over 1% as Thin Trading, Profit‑taking Weigh

An Indian woman tries on gold jewelry at a jewelry store in Bangalore (EPA)
An Indian woman tries on gold jewelry at a jewelry store in Bangalore (EPA)

Gold prices dropped on Monday, pressured by thin trading volumes as US and China markets remained shut due to local public holidays, while some traders booked profits after last session's 2.5% jump.

Spot gold fell 1.1% to $4,986.32 per ounce by 0550 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery lost 0.8% to $5,005.60 per ounce.

"Gold has given back some of Friday's post-CPI ‌gains today due to ‌thinner trading conditions and a lack ‌of ⁠fresh upside catalysts," said ⁠Tim Waterer, KCM chief analyst, referring to the US consumer price inflation data. He also pointed to profit-taking on the day.

US markets are closed for the Presidents' Day holiday, while markets in China are closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. The US CPI rose 0.2% in January after an unrevised 0.3% gain in December, ⁠the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said ‌on Friday.

Economists polled by Reuters ‌had forecast the CPI to increase by 0.3%. Federal Reserve Bank of ‌Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that interest rates could ‌go down, but noted that services inflation remained high.

Market participants anticipate the central bank to hold interest rates at its next meeting on March 18. Still, they are pricing in 75 basis points in rate ‌cuts this year, with the first expected in July, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Non-yielding ⁠bullion tends ⁠to do well in low-interest-rate environments. "It will likely require the dollar to resume its downtrend for gold to make a push in the direction of $6,000 before year-end," Waterer said.

On the geopolitical front, the US military is preparing for the possibility of a weeks-long operation against Iran should President Donald Trump authorize an attack, two US officials told Reuters, in what could become a far more serious conflict than previously seen between the countries.

Spot silver lost 2.4% to $75.64 per ounce, after a 3% fall earlier in the session. The white metal rose 3.4% on Friday. Spot platinum slipped 0.8% to $2,045.11 per ounce, while palladium shed 0.7% to $1,673.52.

Business

Saudi Arabia Elected President of Arab Housing and Reconstruction Council Executive Office

Saudi flags seen in Riyadh (SPA)
Saudi flags seen in Riyadh (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia Elected President of Arab Housing and Reconstruction Council Executive Office

Saudi flags seen in Riyadh (SPA)
Saudi flags seen in Riyadh (SPA)

The Council of Arab Ministers of Housing and Reconstruction announced Saudi Arabia’s election as President of the Executive Office of the council for the 2026-2027 term during its 42nd session held in Doha.

During the meeting, the council also approved the theme for Arab Housing Day 2026, proposed by the Kingdom, which focuses on community resilience, building adaptive communities, promoting urban sustainability, and enhancing the readiness of Arab cities to address future challenges.

The council seeks to strengthen Arab coordination in housing and construction and to leverage the diverse expertise of member states in developing housing policies and urban planning, supporting balanced urban development across the Arab region.

Through its presidency of the Executive Office, the Kingdom will support joint Arab cooperation initiatives and promote the exchange of technical and regulatory expertise in urban planning and the development of real estate systems and legislation, helping Arab countries create more efficient and sustainable housing environments.

The adoption of the 2026 Arab Housing Day slogan reflects a shared Arab stance on building communities capable of adapting to economic, environmental, and social changes, and providing adequate housing that improves the quality of life in Arab cities.

Business

Oil Steady as Traders Brace for US–Iran Nuclear Talks

Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
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Oil Steady as Traders Brace for US–Iran Nuclear Talks

Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo

Oil traded little changed on Monday, with investors weighing the market implications of upcoming US-Iran talks aimed at de-escalating tensions against a backdrop of expected OPEC+ supply increases.

Brent crude futures edged up 3 cents to $67.78 a barrel by 0358 GMT.

US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $62.91 a barrel, up 2 cents. There will be no WTI settlement on Monday due to a US holiday, said Reuters.

Last week, both benchmarks posted ‌weekly declines with ‌Brent settling down about 0.5% and WTI losing 1% ‌after ⁠comments from US President ⁠Donald Trump that Washington could make a deal with Tehran over the next month drove down prices on Thursday.

The two countries due to hold a second round of talks in Geneva on Tuesday after renewing negotiations earlier this month aimed at tackling their decades-long dispute over Tehran's nuclear program and averting a new military confrontation.

Iran is pursuing a nuclear agreement with the US that delivers economic benefits ⁠for both sides, with energy and mining investments and aircraft ‌purchases up for discussion, an Iranian diplomat ‌was reported as saying on Sunday.

"With both sides expected to hold firm on their ‌core red lines, expectations are low that a deal can be reached ‌and this is likely to be the calm before the storm," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.

The US has dispatched a second aircraft carrier to the region and is preparing for the possibility of a sustained military campaign if the talks do not succeed, ‌US officials have told Reuters. Iran's Revolutionary Guards have warned that in case of strikes on Iranian territory, they ⁠could retaliate against any ⁠US military base.

With US-Iran tensions pushing up oil prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies - together called OPEC+ - are leaning toward resuming output increases from April following a three-month halt, to meet peak summer demand, Reuters reported.

Activity in global financial markets is expected to be muted on Monday with China, South Korea and Taiwan closed for Lunar New Year holidays, in addition to Presidents Day in the United States.

"With Chinese demand cues largely absent this week, liquidity remains thin and price action could stay erratic," said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, a New Delhi-based research firm.

In the near term, geopolitical developments and inventory data will remain the primary drivers of volatility, keeping crude vulnerable to sharp two-way swings, Sachdeva added.