Trump Tariffs Don't Spare His Fans in EU

The Hungarian city of Gyor is a prominent auto industry hub, home to more than a dozen suppliers of parts and components. STR / AFP/File
The Hungarian city of Gyor is a prominent auto industry hub, home to more than a dozen suppliers of parts and components. STR / AFP/File
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Trump Tariffs Don't Spare His Fans in EU

The Hungarian city of Gyor is a prominent auto industry hub, home to more than a dozen suppliers of parts and components. STR / AFP/File
The Hungarian city of Gyor is a prominent auto industry hub, home to more than a dozen suppliers of parts and components. STR / AFP/File

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban promised that the return of his "dear friend" Donald Trump as US president would usher in a new "golden age".

But trade unionist Zoltan Laszlo says Hungary's auto industry has seen the opposite as the United States announced new tariffs, with order cancellations and workflow disruptions marking employees' day-to-day experience, AFP said.

With tariff rates rising from 2.5 percent before Trump's return to around 25 percent and finally to 15 percent, the "American tariff slalom" has caused nothing but chaos in the car industry, said Laszlo, who represents workers at Mexican automotive parts manufacturer Nemak's Hungarian plant.

In recent years, Hungary and neighboring Slovakia have become European manufacturing hubs for global car brands seeking lower labor costs, including British Jaguar Land Rover, German Mercedes and Japanese Suzuki.

But due to the export-oriented nature of their automotive sectors, catering in part to the US market, they are among those EU nations hardest-hit by the latest tariffs slated to kick in on August 7.

Despite hailing Trump's comeback and visiting him twice at his Mar-a-Lago luxury estate last year, Orban -- his closest EU ally -- was not spared the pain.

Distress calls

Neither were more favorable conditions extended to Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, whose country is the world's largest automobile manufacturer per capita.

According to analyst Matej Hornak, the incoming tariffs won't bode well. He warns of a drop in exports amounting to "several hundred million euros" and the loss of "10,000-12,000" jobs in the sector.

After the announcement of the EU-US trade deal, Orban was quick to apportion blame to EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, saying Trump "ate" her "for breakfast".

But in April, the mayor of the Hungarian city of Gyor, whose strong economic growth is closely linked to its car manufacturing plants, had already warned of possible cutbacks and layoffs.

For the city, which is home to various global brands and more than a dozen different parts and component suppliers including Nemak, the fresh tariffs are a disaster.

As one of the biggest employers in Hungary, German carmaker Volkswagen alone provides jobs for more than 12,000 people. Its main engine factory in Gyor produces some Audi-branded vehicles directly for the US market.

The Hungarian government has said that it is still assessing the impact of the tariff rates, vowing that upcoming business deals with Washington could mitigate the negative effects of Trump's "America first" policy.

Difficult compromise

But more headwinds are ahead for Hungary and Slovakia, said Brussels-based geopolitical analyst Botond Feledy.

"When it comes to European dealmaking, Trump now prioritizes more geopolitically influential figures -- the main option for smaller nations such as Slovakia and Hungary is to join forces with others," he told AFP.

But the "aggressive posturing" in the same vein of Trump's protectionist policies both countries adopted in recent months have isolated them among fellow EU countries, making compromises difficult, the expert added.

Moreover, the stakes are high for Orban, whose 15-year rule has recently been challenged by former government insider-turned-rival Peter Magyar ahead of elections scheduled for next spring.

"Dissatisfaction with the standard of living has made voters more critical, which is also reflected in the popularity ratings of the governing parties," said economist Zoltan Pogatsa, adding that "Hungary has been in a state of near stagnation for many years now".

This year's economic "flying start" touted by Orban did not materialize, with the government further lowering the country's growth goal from the initial 3.4 to one percent.

"So far, Trump's second presidency has only impacted the Hungarian economy through his tariff policy, which has been negative," Pogatsa added.

At the Nemak plant, a recent warning strike has led to management promising to sort out the unpredictable work schedules caused by the tariff changes, which were "unhealthy and physically unbearable" and made "family and private life become incompatible with work", said Laszlo.



Oil Prices Rise 1% as Supply Risks Remain in Focus

The Nave Photon, carrying crude oil from Venezuela, is docked at Port Freeport in Freeport, Texas, US, January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Antranik Tavitian
The Nave Photon, carrying crude oil from Venezuela, is docked at Port Freeport in Freeport, Texas, US, January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Antranik Tavitian
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Oil Prices Rise 1% as Supply Risks Remain in Focus

The Nave Photon, carrying crude oil from Venezuela, is docked at Port Freeport in Freeport, Texas, US, January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Antranik Tavitian
The Nave Photon, carrying crude oil from Venezuela, is docked at Port Freeport in Freeport, Texas, US, January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Antranik Tavitian

Oil prices rose over 1% on Friday as supply risks remained in focus despite the receding likelihood of a US military strike against Iran.

Brent crude was up 84 cents, or 1.3%, to $64.60 a barrel at 1413 GMT, on course for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. US West Texas Intermediate was up 80 cents, or 1.4%, to $59.99.

At those levels, Brent was on course for a 2% weekly gain and WTI for a 1.4% gain. Brent ⁠was up a little more than $1 at its intraday peak as investors continue to weigh the potential for supply outages should tensions in the Middle East escalate, Reuters reported.

"While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, they have not disappeared, and market participants remain concerned about potential supply disruptions," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Both benchmarks hit multi-month highs this week ⁠after protests flared up in Iran and US President Donald Trump signaled the potential for military strikes, but lost over 4% on Thursday as Trump said that Tehran's crackdown on the protesters was easing, allaying concerns of possible military action that could disrupt oil supplies.

"Above all, there are worries about a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in the event of an escalation, through which around a quarter of seaborne oil supplies flow," Commerzbank analysts said in a note.

"Should there be signs of a sustained easing on ⁠this front, developments in Venezuela are likely to return to the spotlight, with oil that was recently sanctioned or blocked gradually flowing onto the world market."

Meanwhile, analysts expect higher supply this year, potentially creating a ceiling for the geopolitical risk premium on prices.

"Despite the steady drumbeat of geopolitical risks and macro speculation, the underlying balance still points to ample supply," said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.

"Unless we see a genuine revival in Chinese demand or a meaningful bottleneck in physical barrel flows, oil looks range-bound, with Brent broadly hovering between $57 and $67."


Gold Eases as Strong US Data, Easing Geopolitical Tensions Sap Momentum

FILE PHOTO: A saleswoman displays a gold necklace inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Kolkata, India, May 7, 2019. REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A saleswoman displays a gold necklace inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Kolkata, India, May 7, 2019. REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri/File Photo
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Gold Eases as Strong US Data, Easing Geopolitical Tensions Sap Momentum

FILE PHOTO: A saleswoman displays a gold necklace inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Kolkata, India, May 7, 2019. REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A saleswoman displays a gold necklace inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Kolkata, India, May 7, 2019. REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri/File Photo

Gold prices ticked lower on Friday, extending losses from the previous session, as stronger-than-expected US economic data and easing geopolitical tensions in Iran hampered bullion's bullish momentum.

Spot gold eased 0.3% to $4,603.02 per ounce by 0918 GMT. However, the metal is poised for a weekly gain of about 2% after scaling a record peak of $4,642.72 on Wednesday. US gold futures for February delivery edged 0.4% lower to $4,606.70.

"There was ‌a lot of ‌momentum in the (gold) market, which seems to ‌have ⁠faded slightly ‌at the moment....the economic news flow out of the US has been causing some headwinds rather than tailwinds as of late, which is reflected in a somewhat stronger US dollar," said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.

The US dollar hovered near a six-week high on the back of positive economic data on Thursday showing initial jobless claims dropped 9,000 ⁠to a seasonally adjusted 198,000 last week, below economists' forecast of 215,000.

A firmer ‌dollar makes greenback-priced bullion more expensive for overseas ‍buyers. On the geopolitical front, people ‍inside Iran, reached by Reuters on Wednesday and Thursday, said ‍protests appeared to have abated since Monday.

Safe-haven gold tends to do well during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, gold demand in India stayed muted this week as prices hit record highs again, taking the shine off retail buying, while bullion traded at a premium in China as demand remained steady ahead of the Lunar ⁠New Year.

Spot silver shed 1.1% to $91.33 per ounce, although it was headed for a weekly gain of over 14% after hitting an all-time high of $93.57 in the previous session. "The silver market seemed very determined to reach the $100 per ounce threshold before moving lower again....speculative traders are keeping an eye on that level even though it would not be sustainable in the medium to longer-term," Menke added.

Spot platinum dropped 2.7% to $2,345.78 per ounce, and was set to gain more than 3.1% for the week so far. Palladium lost 2.6% to $1,755.04 per ‌ounce, after hitting a more than one-week low earlier, and was headed for a weekly loss of 3.3%.


IMF's Growth Forecasts to Show Resilience to Global Trade Shocks, Georgieva Says

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during an interview with Reuters, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during an interview with Reuters, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko
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IMF's Growth Forecasts to Show Resilience to Global Trade Shocks, Georgieva Says

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during an interview with Reuters, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during an interview with Reuters, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko

The International Monetary Fund's latest economic forecasts due next week will show the global economy's continued resilience to trade shocks and "fairly strong" growth, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Reuters on Thursday.

In an interview during a visit to Kyiv to discuss the IMF's loan to Ukraine, Georgieva suggested the IMF could again revise its forecasts slightly upward as the World Bank did this week.

In October, the IMF edged its 2025 global GDP growth forecast higher to 3.2% from 3.0% in July as the drag from US tariffs was less than initially ‌feared. It kept ‌its 2026 global growth outlook unchanged at 3.1%.

Asked what ‌the ⁠January forecasts ‌would show after the upgrade in October, Georgieva said: "More of the same - that the world economy is remarkably resilient, that trade shock has not derailed global growth, that risks are more tilted to the downside, even if performance now is fairly strong."

The IMF is expected to release its World Economic Outlook update on January 19.

Georgieva said risks were focused on geopolitical tensions and rapid technological shifts. Things could turn out well, ⁠she said, but the global economy could also face significant financial distress if the huge resources flowing into ‌artificial intelligence did not result in promised productivity gains.

"We ‍are in a more unpredictable ‍world, and yet, quite a number of businesses and policymakers operate as if ‍the world hasn't changed."

Georgieva said she worried that many countries had failed to build up sufficient reserves to deal with any new shock that could occur. The IMF currently has 50 lending programs, a high number by historic standards, but was bracing for more countries to seek funds, she said.

The IMF chief said US economic performance had been "quite impressive" despite a raft of tariffs imposed by President Donald ⁠Trump last year on nearly every country in the world.

She said overall tariff levels were lower than initially threatened, and the US accounted for only about 13% to 14% of global trade. Most other countries had also refrained - at least so far - from imposing retaliatory measures, which had helped limit the impact of the wave of US tariffs.

She said inflation and macroeconomic conditions could still worsen, though, if the trade picture darkened.

Geopolitical factors were also clouding the outlook and now played a more significant role than in years past, said Georgieva, who took office in October 2019, just months before the COVID-19 pandemic hit in early 2020.

"Regrettably, since I took ‌this job (in 2019), there has been one shock after another after another," she said.