The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised estimates for world demand growth in 2026 by 100,000 barrels a day to 1.4 million a day, a fractionally higher rate than this year, on stronger economic expectations. It trimmed forecasts for supply growth outside the group by the same amount.
A monthly report showed that in July, OPEC+ raised crude output by 335,000 bpd to 41.94 million bpd during the same period.
In return, OPEC has downgraded its forecast for US oil supply growth next year, paving the way for Brazil to become the largest source of non-OPEC+ output expansion in 2026, according to the Monthly Oil Market Report.
US liquids output is now expected to rise by just 130,000 b/d — down by 80,000 b/d from last month's report and sharply lower than the 510,000 b/d projected in January. The revision reflects sustained capital discipline and weaker momentum in drilling activity, the MOMR said.
Brazilian supply is forecast to increase by 160,000 b/d in 2026, making it the top contributor to non-OPEC+ growth.
Total non-OPEC+ supply is now projected to grow by 630,000 b/d next year — 100,000 b/d less than previously expected. OPEC left its 2025 non-OPEC+ supply growth forecast unchanged at 810,000 b/d.
In the report, OPEC also increased its forecast for world economic growth slightly this year to 3.0% as US President Donald Trump's administration signs some trade deals and the economies of India, China and Brazil outperform expectations.
“Economic data at the start of the second half of 2025 further confirm the resilience of global growth, despite persistent uncertainties related to US-centered trade tensions and broader geopolitical risks,” OPEC said.
Brent crude was steady after OPEC published the report, trading close to $66 a barrel.
