S&P Upgrades Lebanon’s Local Credit Rating, Keeps Foreign Debt in Default
A man counts Lebanese pounds at an exchange shop in Beirut, Lebanon, August 20, 2018 (File – AP)
Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has raised Lebanon’s long-term local currency credit rating to CCC from CC, maintaining a “stable” outlook. However, the agency left the country’s foreign currency rating at Selective Default (SD), underscoring Beirut’s ongoing failure to honor certain obligations.
The upgrade reflects what S&P described as Lebanon’s improved capacity to service domestic commercial debt, supported by fiscal surpluses over the past two years and initial progress on reforms tied to a prospective IMF program. The “selective default” designation refers to a situation where an entity defaults on specific commitments while continuing to meet others.
Lebanon remains among the world’s weakest credit risks. Fitch downgraded the country to Restricted Default (RD) in mid-2024 for both local and foreign currencies before withdrawing its ratings altogether, citing lack of essential financial data. Moody’s still places Lebanon at C, its lowest rating.
Lebanon’s local-currency debt has shrunk dramatically, falling to around 2 percent of GDP - less than $1 billion - by the end of 2024, down from roughly 100 percent before the financial collapse in 2020. This was largely the result of a 98 percent collapse in the Lebanese pound’s value between 2019 and 2024.
Despite the turmoil, the government has maintained payments on local commercial obligations. It resumed interest payments to the central bank in 2024 after a three-year halt and has pledged to start repaying arrears this year.
The government formed in early 2025 under President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has pushed through several reforms, including a revised banking secrecy law and a bank restructuring bill. However, the crucial “financial gap” law - needed to apportion past losses and protect depositors - remains stalled.
The IMF, following a recent mission to Beirut, stressed that passing this law and approving the 2026 budget are essential. The fund has urged Lebanon to adopt a revenue-boosting and spending-rationalization strategy before further support can be unlocked.
S&P cautioned that major debt restructuring is unlikely before the May 2026 parliamentary elections, five years after Lebanon defaulted on its Eurobonds. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, despite a November 2024 ceasefire, continues to darken economic prospects.
Lebanon’s economy contracted by 6.5 percent in 2024, following smaller declines in 2022 and 2023. In dollar terms, GDP has halved from $55 billion in 2018 to $28 billion last year. S&P projects modest average growth of 2.3 percent in 2025–2026.
Since February 2024, the pound has stabilized around 89,500 to the dollar. Government net debt is expected to fall to 113 percent of GDP by end-2025, down from about 240 percent in 2022, thanks to fiscal gains, currency stability, and inflation-driven nominal growth.
Russia to Increase Economic Influence in Syria Through Commercial Logistics Hub at Syrian Porthttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5294366-russia-increase-economic-influence-syria-through-commercial-logistics-hub-syrian
Russia to Increase Economic Influence in Syria Through Commercial Logistics Hub at Syrian Port
A general view of the Russian Navy facility in Syria's coastal Tartous, Syria, December 14, 2024. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo
Moscow is moving to consolidate its economic influence in Syria by establishing a commercial logistics hub in the port of Tartous, a move that reflects a shift in its strategy from military presence to expanded economic weight.
The Russian move coincides with discussions over the future of Moscow’s military bases at Tartous and Hmeimim, as Washington plans to renew contracts and investments in the country.
According to Reuters, Russia hopes by mid-July to have the commercial logistics hub up and running in one of two berths at the naval base it leases in the Tartous port, while keeping a military presence at the other.
The hub will handle a wide range of Russian goods including wheat and grains, and target initial cargo volumes of about 250,000 tons per month while operations were expected to begin with a 30,000-ton grain shipment.
“The project is central to Russian efforts to maintain and expand its influence in Syria through economic channels, after the overthrow of former president Bashar al-Assad in 2024 deprived Moscow of its staunchest ally in the Middle East,” Syrian officials told Reuters on Thursday.
But much more than business is at stake, with a battle for influence under way as Washington seeks ways to ensure not only that Syria awards contracts to US companies but also curbs Moscow's military presence.
The officials said Moscow and Syria are now negotiating over the future of Russia's bases at Tartous and Hmeimim.
In 2025, Syria's new government cancelled a 49-year contract granting Russian company Stroytransgaz the right to develop commercial facilities at Tartous. The United Arab Emirates' DP World secured an $800 million, 30-year concession agreement to redevelop and operate the port.
But on June 6, the Russian-Syrian Business Council, a body operating under Russia's Ministry of Industry and Trade, announced plans to establish an “assembly and distribution center for Russian goods” at Tartous.
Ossama Ajaj, general manager of Rus Line and adviser to the Russian-Syrian Business Council, said the hub will initially handle Russian wheat, grains, animal feed, vegetable oils, timber, steel, clinker, coal, rice, sugar and mineral oils.
He said the hub will operate from Pier No. 4 at Tartous port, in what he called a “restricted zone” of the naval base. The other berth remains dedicated to Russian naval operations.
The project aims to establish a regular maritime route between Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and Tartous, from where goods will be distributed across Syria and neighboring countries.
Ajaj identified Iraq and Jordan as the primary target markets, followed by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain. He added that the project will be run by Syria's General Authority for Ports and Customs.
Ajaj told Reuters cargo volumes of about 250,000 tons per month were being targeted initially and operations were expected to begin in mid-July with a 30,000-ton grain shipment.
He suggested Russia would maintain a “reduced military presence.”
Ajaj and two officials from Syria's foreign ministry said the project was outlined at a January 28 meeting in Moscow between Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The officials called the meeting a turning point in efforts to revive economic cooperation.
Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in June that Moscow and Damascus were discussing a possible “reformatting” of Russia's military facilities in Syria and that cooperation between the two countries was developing actively.
The commercial logistics hub is set to increase Moscow's already significant economic role in Syria. Some 85% of Syria's imported wheat — 2.9 million tons for the 2025-26 season — comes from Russia and Russian-occupied Crimea, a Syrian customs document showed.
Reuters has also reported that Syria's reliance on Russian crude oil imports has increased since Assad's fall. It received about 16.8 million barrels of Russian oil in 2025 and an estimated 60,000 barrels per day in the first months of 2026.
The project could help Russia maintain influence regardless of the eventual shape of its military presence, said Nanar Hawach, a senior Syria adviser at International Crisis Group.
“Russia's hold on Syria rests on what it supplies and maintains, and on its (United Nations) Security Council vote, which gives it influence that outlasts any drawdown of troops,” he said.
“A logistics role reinforces that by keeping Russia physically present at the port, strengthening its hand while the future of the base is being decide,” he noted.
The US is meanwhile watching closely.
Congressman Joe Wilson last month secured an amendment to the Pentagon budget directing it to assess options for reducing Russia's influence in Syria and securing the departure of its forces from Tartous and Hmeimim.
“We closely monitor Russian-backed commercial and logistics projects in Syria and are concerned that such initiatives may not contribute to stability in the country,” a US State Department official said in response to Reuters questions.
The official said the US was encouraging Syria to engage “trusted corporate partners – especially US firms” during the country's recovery and reconstruction after its civil war, while urging Damascus to respect US sanctions on Russia.
Saudi Arabia, Canada Open New Investment Era in AI, Mininghttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5294234-saudi-arabia-canada-open-new-investment-era-ai-mining
Saudi Arabia, Canada Open New Investment Era in AI, Mining
Officials are seen at the Saudi-Canadian Investment Forum in Jeddah. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Saudi Arabia and Canada have entered a new phase of strategic economic partnership, with both countries seeking to translate diplomatic momentum into commercial deals in mining, energy, artificial intelligence, data centers, financial services, and advanced industries.
Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister, received Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on an official visit that capped a year of intensified diplomatic and investment activity between the two countries.
The visit coincided with the Saudi-Canadian Investment Forum in Jeddah, where senior officials and business leaders from both sides met to shape a practical road map for moving relations from discussion to implementation.
Carney said Saudi Arabia had become one of the main pillars of the global economy, praising the sharp acceleration in its economic growth and the structural transformation taking place under Vision 2030.
Speaking on the sidelines of the forum, he said Canada was firmly committed to deepening cooperation with the Kingdom in strategic sectors, led by energy and mining.
The joint push aims to connect Canadian technology, innovation and capital with the scale of opportunities created by Vision 2030, particularly in financial services, mining, advanced industries, artificial intelligence and data centers.
Saudi Investment Minister Fahad Al-Saif said the Kingdom’s economy had grown from about $720 billion in 2017 to nearly $1.3 trillion. Non-oil activities now account for more than 50% of gross domestic product, while non-oil and non-government investment represent about 77% of total investment.
Al-Saif said the forum offered a practical platform to link Canada’s strengths in capital, innovation, natural resources, education and professional expertise with opportunities being created in Saudi Arabia.
He said the presence of investors, companies, entrepreneurs and government representatives from both countries created the right mix to move from talks to execution.
The next phase of Saudi-Canadian investment ties should be more specific, more ambitious and more commercially focused, he said. It should link Canadian capital, technology and entrepreneurship with opportunities in the Kingdom, while opening new channels for Saudi capital, companies and national institutions in Canada.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks during a media availability in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Thursday, July 9, 2026. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press via AP)
Natural partners
Mining emerged as a central pillar of the talks.
Carney said the mineral wealth sector offered a major base for cooperation and recalled his earlier participation in the Future Minerals Forum in Saudi Arabia. He said the Kingdom had become one of the most important suppliers and active players in global mining, backed by major financial investment in the sector.
He called for faster integration of Canadian experts, capital and advanced geological expertise with Saudi opportunities, and for steering the partnership toward mutual education and training. The goal, he said, was to turn geological science and modern technology into sustainable jobs for workers in Saudi Arabia’s mining sector.
Carney said Canadian educational institutions, including Niagara College, were ready to help train the Saudi national workforce and develop its digital and technical skills to use artificial intelligence tools.
He said about 40% of major mining companies worldwide were linked through close partnerships at several levels, strengthening prospects for joint work, operational development and the exploration of opportunities and calculated risks.
Carney said Canada and Saudi Arabia were natural partners in minerals and mining, adding that their cooperation would help meet growing global market needs.
Human dimension
David Morrison, Senior Diplomatic and International Affairs Advisor to the Prime Minister, said trade and investment ties between Ottawa and Riyadh were at their strongest point in history.
Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the forum, Morrison said mining and minerals were a strategic pillar in Carney’s Jeddah talks because of the fit between Canada’s long experience in the sector and the opportunities offered by Vision 2030.
He said the strong Canadian business presence at the forum and Carney’s visit reflected a full commitment to supporting Vision 2030 targets.
The next phase would bring major partnerships and high-value deals focused on modern technologies, led by artificial intelligence, the digital economy, infrastructure and mining, he added.
Morrison also stressed the human dimension of the partnership, saying Canadian institutions and colleges, including Niagara College, were helping train young Saudis for the jobs of the future.
Success in healthcare, aviation and mining was now closely tied to the ability to lead the use of artificial intelligence tools, an area Canada is working to develop with Saudi Arabia, he remarked.
Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister, welcomes Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in Jeddah on Thursday. (SPA)
Agreements
Mohammed Al-Dulaim, chairman of the Saudi-Canadian Business Council, said that about 15 agreements to be signed on the sidelines of the event in the presence of the Canadian prime minister would be worth more than $1 billion.
He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the agreements would expand trade between the two sides, which has exceeded 66 billion over the past five years, and said the visit would mark a new stage in bilateral relations.
Al-Dulaim said Canada has expertise and technical capabilities in technology, mining, health, insurance, infrastructure, and artificial intelligence, while Saudi Arabia has a dynamic economy and a Vision 2030 agenda that makes Riyadh an investment destination.
The Kingdom and Canada are also positioned to build an integrated value chain for critical minerals. Saudi Arabia’s mineral resources are estimated at about $2.5 trillion and include more than 50 minerals across more than 2.1 million square kilometers.
Exploration opportunities and downstream value chains are expanding rapidly in areas that align with Canadian mining expertise.
Saudi Arabia is offering Canadian partners investment opportunities in artificial intelligence, data centers, financial services and mining, while highlighting progress in developing its investment environment.
The stock of Canadian direct investment in financial and insurance activities reached 177 million riyals, or $47.2 million, in 2024.
Saudi Arabia also offers access to the largest economy in the Middle East and a Gulf market worth about $2.3 trillion. Since last February, foreign investors have had full direct access to the Saudi main market, where market capitalization reached 8.82 trillion riyals, or $2.35 trillion.
Türkiye, Iraq to Sign 12-month Extension of Oil Pipeline Dealhttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5294158-t%C3%BCrkiye-iraq-sign-12-month-extension-oil-pipeline-deal
Türkiye's Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar speaks as he meets with reporters at Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Antalya, Türkiye, April 18, 2026. REUTERS/Umit Bektas
Türkiye, Iraq to Sign 12-month Extension of Oil Pipeline Deal
Türkiye's Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar speaks as he meets with reporters at Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Antalya, Türkiye, April 18, 2026. REUTERS/Umit Bektas
Türkiye and Iraq are set to sign, within days, a one-year agreement to keep open the crude oil pipeline between the two countries, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on Thursday. Their decades-old pipeline agreement, which governs exports through the pipeline, is due to expire on July 27.
"We have brought the agreement that will cover the next 12 months to the final stage. We aim to sign it in the coming days," Bayraktar, who was in Baghdad for an official visit, said in a statement, adding that oil flow from Iraq to Türkiye's port of Ceyhan on the eastern Mediterranean coast will continue.
The pipeline had remained offline for 2-1/2 years after an arbitration court ruled for Ankara to pay $1.5 billion in damages for unauthorized Iraqi exports Türkiye received between 2014 and 2018.
Flows resumed late last year. In an earlier post on X, Bayraktar said he had a fruitful meeting with Iraq Oil Minister Basim Mohammed, during which they discussed oil and gas cooperation. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi also met with Bayraktar during his visit, according to his office.
لم تشترك بعد
انشئ حساباً خاصاً بك لتحصل على أخبار مخصصة لك ولتتمتع بخاصية حفظ المقالات وتتلقى نشراتنا البريدية المتنوعة
