Washington and Moscow: Secret Discussions on US Investments in Russian Energy Sector in Exchange for Peace

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Kherson Region Governor Vladimir Saldo (not pictured) at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, 26 August 2025. EPA/VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV / SPUTNIK / KREMLIN POOL
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Kherson Region Governor Vladimir Saldo (not pictured) at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, 26 August 2025. EPA/VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV / SPUTNIK / KREMLIN POOL
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Washington and Moscow: Secret Discussions on US Investments in Russian Energy Sector in Exchange for Peace

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Kherson Region Governor Vladimir Saldo (not pictured) at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, 26 August 2025. EPA/VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV / SPUTNIK / KREMLIN POOL
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Kherson Region Governor Vladimir Saldo (not pictured) at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, 26 August 2025. EPA/VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV / SPUTNIK / KREMLIN POOL

US and Russian government officials discussed several energy deals on the sidelines of negotiations this month that sought to achieve peace in Ukraine, according to five sources familiar with the talks.

These deals were put forward as incentives to encourage the Kremlin to agree to peace in Ukraine and for Washington to ease sanctions on Russia, they said.

The officials discussed the possibility of Exxon Mobil re-entering Russia’s Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project, three of the sources said.

Government officials also raised the prospect of Russia purchasing US equipment for its LNG projects, such as Arctic LNG 2, which is under western sanctions, four sources said.

Another idea was for the US to purchase nuclear-powered icebreaker vessels from Russia, Reuters reported on August 15.

The talks were held during US envoy Steve Witkoff’s trip to Moscow earlier this month when he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev, three of the sources said. They were also discussed within the White House with Trump, two of the sources said.

These deals were also briefly discussed at the Alaska summit on August 15, one source said.

“The White House really wanted to put out a headline after the Alaska summit, announcing a big investment deal,” said one of the sources. “This is how Trump feels like he’s achieved something.”

Trump and his national security team continue to engage with Russian and Ukrainian officials towards a bilateral meeting to stop the killing and end the war, a White House official said in response to questions about the deals. It is not in the national interest to further negotiate these issues publicly, the official said.

Trump has threatened to impose more sanctions on Russia unless peace talks make progress and to place harsh tariffs on India, a major buyer of Russian oil. Those measures would make it difficult for Russia to maintain the same level of oil exports.

Trump’s dealmaking style of politics has been on display before in the Ukraine talks, when earlier this year the same officials explored ways for the US to revive Russian gas flows to Europe. These plans have been stalled by Brussels, which put forward proposals to fully phase out Russian gas imports by 2027.

The latest discussions have shifted to bilateral deals between the US and Russia, pivoting away from the European Union, which, as a bloc, has been steadfast in its support for Ukraine.

On the same day as the Alaska summit, Putin signed a decree that could allow foreign investors, including Exxon Mobil, to regain shares in the Sakhalin-1 project. It is conditional on the foreign shareholders taking action to support the lifting of Western sanctions on Russia.

Exxon exited its Russian business in 2022 after the Ukraine invasion, taking a $4.6 billion impairment charge. Its 30% operator share in the Sakhalin-1 project in Russia's far east was seized by the Kremlin that year.

The US has placed several waves of sanctions on Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project, starting in 2022 and cutting off access to ice-class ships that are needed to operate in that region for most of the year.

The project is majority-owned by Novatek, which started working with lobbyists in Washington last year to try to rebuild relations and lift the sanctions.

The Arctic LNG 2 plant resumed natural gas processing in April, albeit at a low rate, Reuters reported. Five cargoes have been loaded from the project this year onto tankers under sanctions. A production train was previously shut down due to the difficulties in exporting given the sanctions.

This project was intended to have three LNG processing trains. The third is in planning stages, with technology expected to be supplied by China.

Washington is seeking to prompt Russia to buy US technology rather than Chinese as part of a broader strategy to alienate China and weaken relations between Beijing and Moscow, one of the sources said.

China and Russia declared a “no limits” strategic partnership days before Putin sent troops into Ukraine. Xi has met Putin over 40 times in the last decade and Putin in recent months described China as an ally.



UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
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UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)

Britain's economic ‌growth prospects this year received the sharpest downgrade of any major economy in the OECD's interim forecast update on Thursday following the US-Israeli war ​on Iran, while inflation is set to rise faster too.

The Paris-based international body cut its 2026 forecast for British economic growth by half a percentage point to 0.7%, compared with a 0.4 percentage point downgrade for the euro zone and a 0.3 percentage point upgrade for the United States.

"Planned fiscal tightening and higher energy prices ‌are anticipated to keep ‌growth subdued in the United ​Kingdom, ‌though the ⁠impact ​will be ⁠attenuated by lower policy rates next year," Reuters quoted the OECD as saying in its report.

Following are further highlights from the report and other context:

Britain's growth forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 1.3%.

Britain's inflation forecast for 2026 is revised up by 1.5 percentage points from December to 4.0%, the ⁠biggest upward revision of any large, advanced ‌economy.

UK inflation in 2027 ‌is forecast to be 2.6%, 0.5 percentage ​points higher than in ‌December and above the Bank of England's 2% target.

Poorer UK households spend more on gas and electricity than in other rich countries, though total energy spending makes up a smaller share of UK inflation than elsewhere.

The OECD expects the ‌BoE to keep interest rates unchanged this year then cut in Q1 2027 as inflation ⁠eases.

⁠Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility, in forecasts finalized just before the start of the conflict, predicted GDP growth of 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2027.

The BoE this month forecast inflation would rise to 3.0-3.5% over the next couple of quarters.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has made boosting growth and reducing the cost of living top goals for his government.

Finance minister Rachel Reeves said the forecasts showed the war in the Middle East ​was affecting Britain but ​she would still focus on "regional growth, embracing AI and innovation, and establishing a closer relationship with the EU."


Gold Drops More than 1% as Markets Assess Mideast Ceasefire Prospects

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
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Gold Drops More than 1% as Markets Assess Mideast Ceasefire Prospects

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa

Gold prices fell on Thursday, weighed down by increased expectations of US Federal Reserve rate hikes this year as elevated oil prices stoked inflation worries, with investors awaiting clarity on Middle East de-escalation efforts.

Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,451.47 per ounce by 0811 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery lost 2.3% to $4,448.

"You're ‌seeing an ‌acceleration of the idea that... this war will ‌mean ⁠inflation and inflation ⁠will mean a response from central banks, which will mean higher interest rates," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Brent crude futures climbed back above $100 a barrel on concerns that protracted fighting in the Middle East will further disrupt energy flows.

Higher crude prices tend to fuel inflation, and while rising inflation typically boosts gold's appeal ⁠as a hedge, high interest rates weigh on ‌demand for the non-yielding asset.

Markets see ‌a 37% chance of a US rate hike by December this year ‌with almost no chance of a cut now, according to ‌CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Before the conflict, markets were expecting at least two rate cuts.

US President Donald Trump said Iran was desperate to make a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting the Iranian foreign ‌minister who said his country was reviewing a US proposal but had no intention of holding talks ⁠to wind down ⁠the conflict.

"In the next 24 to 48 hours, (gold prices) will just be about reacting to headlines about negotiations," said Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

"The really big moves will happen probably at the start of next week when it becomes clearer whether the US launches a ground invasion in Iran over the weekend."

Trump has vowed to hit Iran harder if Tehran fails to accept that the country has been "defeated militarily", White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday.

Spot silver fell 2.7% to $69.36 per ounce. Spot platinum was down 2.3% at $1,874.90, while palladium dropped 2.5% to $1,387.53.


Oil Climbs and Equities Sink amid Mixed Messages on 'Talks'

FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026.  REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
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Oil Climbs and Equities Sink amid Mixed Messages on 'Talks'

FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026.  REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

Oil prices jumped and equities fell Thursday as investors tracked developments in the Middle East amid hopes that US and Iranian officials will bring an end to a conflict that has ramped up fears of an unprecedented global energy crisis.

Markets have been buoyed since late Monday after Donald Trump backed down on a threat to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure and said the two sides were in peace talks.

But while crude prices are down from last week and the mood on trading floors has been better than most of March, uncertainty and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz -- through which around 20 percent of oil and gas passes -- continue to cast a dark shadow.

Washington presented a 15-point plan to end the war, including Iran giving up its enriched uranium and opening up the waterway, while Tehran's state-run TV reported officials had put forward their own five conditions for hostilities to end.

Trump on Wednesday threatened to "unleash hell" if Iran did not strike a deal, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country does not intend to negotiate.

But the US president also said Iran was taking part in peace talks and the denials were because negotiators feared being killed by their own side.

"Pressure on energy prices, shipping flows and broader financial conditions remains one of the few meaningful sources of leverage (Iran) retains," said Saxo Markets' Charu Chanana.

"There is therefore little incentive to relinquish that leverage prematurely, particularly if market stress strengthens its negotiating position.

However, she added: "It would be imprudent to assume diplomacy is absent simply because it is not visible. In conflicts of this nature, public rhetoric and private negotiation often diverge materially.

"Markets understand this dynamic, and they also tend to inflect before the political endgame is formally in place."

With investors holding on to hope that a deal can be struck, oil prices have stabilized this week, with Brent just above $100 and WTI around $90.

Both contracts rallied Thursday.

Stocks in Wall Street and Europe rose but Asian markets struggled after a two-day rally.

Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, Sydney, Taipei, Singapore, Manila, Bangkok and Jakarta fell along with London, Paris and Frankfurt.

City Index's Fiona Cincotta said for any recovery to gain traction, "investors will want to see clearer signs of de-escalation, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz".

Her remarks come after the head of the International Chamber of Commerce, John Denton, warned the conflict could cause the "worst industrial crisis" in decades.

"The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that the world is facing an energy crisis more severe than the oil shocks of the 1970s," he added.

"From a business perspective, we believe this could yet become the worst industrial crisis in living memory."

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization said disruptions to fertilizer supplies posed a double threat to global food security through scarcity and high prices, with a third of the global fertilizer supply normally transiting the Strait of Hormuz.