Trump’s Doubling of Tariffs on Indian Imports Takes Effect, Hiking Tensions 

Workers look for fabrics for dresses inside a store at a garment manufacturing unit in Noida, India, August 27, 2025. (Reuters)
Workers look for fabrics for dresses inside a store at a garment manufacturing unit in Noida, India, August 27, 2025. (Reuters)
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Trump’s Doubling of Tariffs on Indian Imports Takes Effect, Hiking Tensions 

Workers look for fabrics for dresses inside a store at a garment manufacturing unit in Noida, India, August 27, 2025. (Reuters)
Workers look for fabrics for dresses inside a store at a garment manufacturing unit in Noida, India, August 27, 2025. (Reuters)

US President Donald Trump's doubling of tariffs on goods from India to as much as 50% took effect as scheduled on Wednesday, escalating tensions between the world's two largest democracies and strategic partners.

A punitive 25% tariff imposed due to India's purchases of Russian oil adds to Trump's prior 25% tariff on many products from India. It takes total duties to as high as 50% for goods such as garments, gems and jewellery, footwear, sporting goods, furniture and chemicals - among the highest imposed by the US and on par with Brazil and China.

The new tariffs threaten thousands of small exporters and jobs, including in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state of Gujarat.

India's Commerce Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. However, a Commerce Ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said exporters hit by tariffs would receive financial assistance and be encouraged to diversify to markets, such as China, Latin America and the Middle East.

A US Customs and Border Protection notice to shippers provides a three-week exemption for Indian goods that were loaded onto a vessel and in transit to the US before the midnight deadline. These goods can still enter the US at prior lower tariff rates before 12:01 a.m. EDT (0401 GMT) on September 17.

Also exempted are steel, aluminum and derivative products, passenger vehicles, copper and other goods subject to separate tariffs of up to 50% under Section 232 national security trade law.

India trade ministry officials say the average tariff on US imports is around 7.5%, while the US Trade Representative's office has highlighted rates of up to 100% on autos and an average applied tariff rate of 39% on US farm goods.

FAILED TALKS

As the midnight activation deadline approached, US officials offered no hope for India to avert the tariffs.

"Yeah," said White House trade adviser Peter Navarro when asked if the increased tariffs on India's US-bound exports would go into effect as previously announced on Wednesday. He offered no further details.

Wednesday's tariff move follows five rounds of failed talks, during which Indian officials had signaled optimism that US tariffs could be capped at 15%, the rate granted to goods from some other major US trade partners including Japan, South Korea and the European Union.

Officials on both sides blamed political misjudgment and missed signals for the breakdown in talks between the world's biggest and fifth-largest economies. Their two-way goods trade totaled $129 billion in 2024, with a $45.8 billion US trade deficit, according to US Census Bureau data.

EXPORTERS LOSE COMPETITIVE EDGE

Exporter groups estimate hikes could affect nearly 55% of India's $87 billion in merchandise exports to the US, while benefiting competitors such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and China.

"The move will disrupt Indian exports to the largest export market," said S.C. Ralhan, president of Federation of Indian Export Organizations, noting about 55% of exports, including textiles, chemicals and leather, will face a 30–35% price disadvantage against competitors.

The government should consider a one-year moratorium on banks loans for affected exporters, besides extending low-cost credit and easier availability of loans, he said.

Rajeswari Sengupta, an economics professor at Mumbai's Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, said allowing the rupee to "depreciate is one way to provide indirect support to the exporters" and regain lost competitiveness.

Sustained tariffs at this rate could dent India's growing appeal as an alternative manufacturing hub to China for goods, such as smartphones and electronics.

The US-India standoff has raised questions about the broader relationship between India and the US, important security partners who share concerns about China.

However, on Tuesday the US State Department and India's Ministry of External Affairs issued identical statements saying senior officials of the ministries and defense departments met virtually on Monday and expressed "eagerness to continue enhancing the breadth and depth of the bilateral relationship."

Both sides also reaffirmed their commitment to the Quad, a partnership that brings together the US and India with Australia and Japan.



UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
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UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)

Britain's economic ‌growth prospects this year received the sharpest downgrade of any major economy in the OECD's interim forecast update on Thursday following the US-Israeli war ​on Iran, while inflation is set to rise faster too.

The Paris-based international body cut its 2026 forecast for British economic growth by half a percentage point to 0.7%, compared with a 0.4 percentage point downgrade for the euro zone and a 0.3 percentage point upgrade for the United States.

"Planned fiscal tightening and higher energy prices ‌are anticipated to keep ‌growth subdued in the United ​Kingdom, ‌though the ⁠impact ​will be ⁠attenuated by lower policy rates next year," Reuters quoted the OECD as saying in its report.

Following are further highlights from the report and other context:

Britain's growth forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 1.3%.

Britain's inflation forecast for 2026 is revised up by 1.5 percentage points from December to 4.0%, the ⁠biggest upward revision of any large, advanced ‌economy.

UK inflation in 2027 ‌is forecast to be 2.6%, 0.5 percentage ​points higher than in ‌December and above the Bank of England's 2% target.

Poorer UK households spend more on gas and electricity than in other rich countries, though total energy spending makes up a smaller share of UK inflation than elsewhere.

The OECD expects the ‌BoE to keep interest rates unchanged this year then cut in Q1 2027 as inflation ⁠eases.

⁠Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility, in forecasts finalized just before the start of the conflict, predicted GDP growth of 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2027.

The BoE this month forecast inflation would rise to 3.0-3.5% over the next couple of quarters.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has made boosting growth and reducing the cost of living top goals for his government.

Finance minister Rachel Reeves said the forecasts showed the war in the Middle East ​was affecting Britain but ​she would still focus on "regional growth, embracing AI and innovation, and establishing a closer relationship with the EU."


Gold Drops More than 1% as Markets Assess Mideast Ceasefire Prospects

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
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Gold Drops More than 1% as Markets Assess Mideast Ceasefire Prospects

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa

Gold prices fell on Thursday, weighed down by increased expectations of US Federal Reserve rate hikes this year as elevated oil prices stoked inflation worries, with investors awaiting clarity on Middle East de-escalation efforts.

Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,451.47 per ounce by 0811 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery lost 2.3% to $4,448.

"You're ‌seeing an ‌acceleration of the idea that... this war will ‌mean ⁠inflation and inflation ⁠will mean a response from central banks, which will mean higher interest rates," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Brent crude futures climbed back above $100 a barrel on concerns that protracted fighting in the Middle East will further disrupt energy flows.

Higher crude prices tend to fuel inflation, and while rising inflation typically boosts gold's appeal ⁠as a hedge, high interest rates weigh on ‌demand for the non-yielding asset.

Markets see ‌a 37% chance of a US rate hike by December this year ‌with almost no chance of a cut now, according to ‌CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Before the conflict, markets were expecting at least two rate cuts.

US President Donald Trump said Iran was desperate to make a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting the Iranian foreign ‌minister who said his country was reviewing a US proposal but had no intention of holding talks ⁠to wind down ⁠the conflict.

"In the next 24 to 48 hours, (gold prices) will just be about reacting to headlines about negotiations," said Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

"The really big moves will happen probably at the start of next week when it becomes clearer whether the US launches a ground invasion in Iran over the weekend."

Trump has vowed to hit Iran harder if Tehran fails to accept that the country has been "defeated militarily", White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday.

Spot silver fell 2.7% to $69.36 per ounce. Spot platinum was down 2.3% at $1,874.90, while palladium dropped 2.5% to $1,387.53.


Oil Climbs and Equities Sink amid Mixed Messages on 'Talks'

FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026.  REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
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Oil Climbs and Equities Sink amid Mixed Messages on 'Talks'

FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026.  REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

Oil prices jumped and equities fell Thursday as investors tracked developments in the Middle East amid hopes that US and Iranian officials will bring an end to a conflict that has ramped up fears of an unprecedented global energy crisis.

Markets have been buoyed since late Monday after Donald Trump backed down on a threat to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure and said the two sides were in peace talks.

But while crude prices are down from last week and the mood on trading floors has been better than most of March, uncertainty and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz -- through which around 20 percent of oil and gas passes -- continue to cast a dark shadow.

Washington presented a 15-point plan to end the war, including Iran giving up its enriched uranium and opening up the waterway, while Tehran's state-run TV reported officials had put forward their own five conditions for hostilities to end.

Trump on Wednesday threatened to "unleash hell" if Iran did not strike a deal, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country does not intend to negotiate.

But the US president also said Iran was taking part in peace talks and the denials were because negotiators feared being killed by their own side.

"Pressure on energy prices, shipping flows and broader financial conditions remains one of the few meaningful sources of leverage (Iran) retains," said Saxo Markets' Charu Chanana.

"There is therefore little incentive to relinquish that leverage prematurely, particularly if market stress strengthens its negotiating position.

However, she added: "It would be imprudent to assume diplomacy is absent simply because it is not visible. In conflicts of this nature, public rhetoric and private negotiation often diverge materially.

"Markets understand this dynamic, and they also tend to inflect before the political endgame is formally in place."

With investors holding on to hope that a deal can be struck, oil prices have stabilized this week, with Brent just above $100 and WTI around $90.

Both contracts rallied Thursday.

Stocks in Wall Street and Europe rose but Asian markets struggled after a two-day rally.

Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, Sydney, Taipei, Singapore, Manila, Bangkok and Jakarta fell along with London, Paris and Frankfurt.

City Index's Fiona Cincotta said for any recovery to gain traction, "investors will want to see clearer signs of de-escalation, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz".

Her remarks come after the head of the International Chamber of Commerce, John Denton, warned the conflict could cause the "worst industrial crisis" in decades.

"The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that the world is facing an energy crisis more severe than the oil shocks of the 1970s," he added.

"From a business perspective, we believe this could yet become the worst industrial crisis in living memory."

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization said disruptions to fertilizer supplies posed a double threat to global food security through scarcity and high prices, with a third of the global fertilizer supply normally transiting the Strait of Hormuz.