Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge Holds Steady Despite Trump’s Tariffs

FILE PHOTO: Kroger logo is seen in this illustration taken, February 11, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Kroger logo is seen in this illustration taken, February 11, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge Holds Steady Despite Trump’s Tariffs

FILE PHOTO: Kroger logo is seen in this illustration taken, February 11, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Kroger logo is seen in this illustration taken, February 11, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge mostly held steady last month despite President Donald Trump’s board-based tariffs, but a measure of underlying inflation increased.

Prices rose 2.6% in July compared with a year ago, the Commerce Department said Friday, the same annual increase as in June. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, prices rose 2.9% from a year earlier, up from 2.8% in the previous month and the highest since February, according to The Associated Press.

The figures illustrate why many officials at the Federal Reserve have been reluctant to cut their key interest rate. While inflation is much lower than the roughly 7% peak it reached three years ago, it is still running noticeably above the Fed’s 2% target.

At the same time, the report showed that consumer spending picked up last month and could boost economic growth, which weakened considerably in the first six months of the year.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% from June to July, down from 0.3% the previous month, while core prices increased 0.3% for the second month in a row.

The figures are similar to those reported earlier this month in the more widely-followed consumer price index, which has risen 2.7% from a year ago. The core CPI increased 3.1% in July compared with a year earlier.

Separately, the Friday report showed that consumer spending jumped 0.5% in July, the biggest increase since March and a sign that many Americans are still willing to open their wallets despite high interest rates and uncertainty surrounding the direction of the economy. Spending jumped sharply for long-lasting goods such as cars, appliances and furniture, many of which are imported.

Incomes rose 0.4% from June to July, boosted by a healthy gain in wages and salaries, the report showed.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said the central bank will likely cut its key rate at its meeting next month. But policymakers are expected to proceed cautiously and it’s not clear how many more rate cuts will happen this year.

When the Fed reduces its key rate, it often — though not always — lowers borrowing costs for things like mortgages, car loans, and business borrowing.

Trump has relentlessly pushed Powell and the Fed for lower interest rates since earlier this year, calling Powell “Too Late” and a “moron” and arguing that there is “no inflation.”

On Monday he sought to fire Lisa Cook, a member of the Fed’s governing board in an effort to gain greater control over the central bank.



Gold Climbs to Over One-month High after Fed Rate Cut; Silver Hits Fresh Record

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 08: Silver jewelry is displayed in the Manhattan Jewelry district on December 9, 2025, in New York City. Spencer Platt/Getty Images/AFP
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 08: Silver jewelry is displayed in the Manhattan Jewelry district on December 9, 2025, in New York City. Spencer Platt/Getty Images/AFP
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Gold Climbs to Over One-month High after Fed Rate Cut; Silver Hits Fresh Record

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 08: Silver jewelry is displayed in the Manhattan Jewelry district on December 9, 2025, in New York City. Spencer Platt/Getty Images/AFP
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 08: Silver jewelry is displayed in the Manhattan Jewelry district on December 9, 2025, in New York City. Spencer Platt/Getty Images/AFP

Gold rose on Thursday to hit its highest level in more than a month after the US Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate cut pushed the dollar lower, while silver surged to a fresh record high.

Spot gold was up 1.2% at $4,275.39 per ounce, as of 11:49 a.m. ET (16:49 GMT), reaching its highest level since October 21. US gold futures for February delivery gained 1.9% to $4,303.90 per ounce.

Spot silver added 3.2% to $63.77 per ounce, hovering near the session’s record high of $63.93, Reuters reported.

"Silver seems to be pulling gold up with it and it's also pulling up platinum and palladium...there's a lot of momentum behind it right now," said Marex analyst Edward Meir.

The US dollar slipped to over seven-week low against a basket of rival currencies, making greenback-priced gold more affordable for overseas buyers.

"Inflation hasn't really come back down to the Fed's 2% target, so, when you're lowering rates in an inflationary environment that is still not optimum, and that's very bullish for gold," Meir added.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday delivered its third consecutive quarter-point cut, while policymakers also signaled a likely pause in further reductions as they monitor labor market trends and inflation that "remains somewhat elevated.”

Lower interest rates tend to be favorable to gold, as it is a non-yielding asset.

US President Donald Trump has advocated for lower interest rates since the start of his second term in January, and his nominee for the next Federal Reserve chair is expected to maintain that stance. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is currently viewed as the leading candidate for the position.

Investors now await the monthly US non-farm payrolls report, set to be released on December 16, for fresh cues on the Fed's policy path.

Meanwhile, India's pension regulator on Wednesday permitted investments in gold and silver ETFs for the country's pension funds.

Elsewhere, platinum gained 2.5% to $1,698.10, while palladium rose 1.3% to $1,494.88.


Saudi Industrial Production Jumps 8.9% in October, Driven by Mining Sector

 A facility operated by the Saudi International Petrochemical Company (Sipchem) (Photo: the company’s website) 
 A facility operated by the Saudi International Petrochemical Company (Sipchem) (Photo: the company’s website) 
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Saudi Industrial Production Jumps 8.9% in October, Driven by Mining Sector

 A facility operated by the Saudi International Petrochemical Company (Sipchem) (Photo: the company’s website) 
 A facility operated by the Saudi International Petrochemical Company (Sipchem) (Photo: the company’s website) 

Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) released preliminary data for the Industrial Production Index (IPI) for October 2025, reporting a strong 8.9 percent increase compared with the same month last year.

The rise was supported by robust performance across most major economic activities, led by mining and quarrying, manufacturing, and higher output in electricity, gas, water, and wastewater services.

On a monthly basis, the overall index inched up 0.3 percent from September 2025. Mining and quarrying, by far the heaviest-weighted component of the IPI, was the main engine of growth, posting an 11.5 percent annual rise in October. The increase was largely attributed to a sharp boost in Saudi oil production, which reached 10 million barrels per day, up from 8.9 million barrels per day in the same month of 2024.

Month-on-month, the sector continued to strengthen, with its sub-index rising 0.4 percent from September.

The manufacturing sub-index recorded a solid 5.5 percent annual expansion. This performance was driven by coke and refined petroleum products, up 8.0 percent year-on-year, and chemicals and chemical products, which posted 8.1 percent growth.

Monthly data also showed momentum: manufacturing rose 0.9 percent from September, supported by a 2.7 percent increase in chemicals and a 1.5 percent rise in refined petroleum products.

Within manufacturing, most detailed activities registered year-on-year growth. Manufacture of paper and paper products climbed 5.6 percent, while non-metallic mineral products rose 4.4 percent. However, some subsectors diverged: basic metals declined 6.3 percent year-on-year, and food products fell 4.9 percent month-on-month despite recording 1.9 percent annual growth.

In the utilities segment, the electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply index grew 5.1 percent year-on-year. Water supply, wastewater, waste management, and remediation activities posted an even stronger rise of 8.5 percent.

Despite positive annual trends, electricity and gas supply fell 5.8 percent on a monthly basis, whereas water and wastewater services edged up 0.6 percent.

A breakdown by economic activity shows that October’s annual growth was heavily influenced by oil production. The petroleum activities index recorded a 10.8 percent year-on-year increase.

Non-oil industrial activities also expanded, rising 4.4 percent annually. On a monthly basis, petroleum activities grew 0.6 percent, while non-oil activities slipped 0.3 percent compared with September.

 

 

 

 

 


Oil Extends Gains after US Seizure of Tanker off Venezuela

FILE PHOTO: A worker walks past infrastructure on D Island, the main processing hub, at the Kashagan offshore oil field in the Caspian sea in western Kazakhstan August 21, 2013.  REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A worker walks past infrastructure on D Island, the main processing hub, at the Kashagan offshore oil field in the Caspian sea in western Kazakhstan August 21, 2013. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
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Oil Extends Gains after US Seizure of Tanker off Venezuela

FILE PHOTO: A worker walks past infrastructure on D Island, the main processing hub, at the Kashagan offshore oil field in the Caspian sea in western Kazakhstan August 21, 2013.  REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A worker walks past infrastructure on D Island, the main processing hub, at the Kashagan offshore oil field in the Caspian sea in western Kazakhstan August 21, 2013. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo

Oil rose for a second straight session on Thursday after the US seized a sanctioned oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast, escalating tensions between the two countries and raising concern over further supply disruptions.
Brent crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $62.48 a barrel by 0101 GMT, and US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $58.79 a barrel, up 33 cents, or 0.6%.
WTI crude oil is trading higher after news that the US seized an oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note, adding that reports of Ukraine striking a vessel from Russia’s shadow fleet also lent support, reported Reuters.
"These developments are likely to keep crude oil above our key $55 support level into year-end, barring an unexpected peace deal in Ukraine," Sycamore said.
US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday, "we've just seized a tanker on the coast of Venezuela, large tanker, very large, largest one ever, actually, and other things are happening."
Trump administration officials did not name the vessel. British maritime risk management group Vanguard said the tanker Skipper was believed to have been seized off Venezuela.
Traders and industry sources said Asian buyers are demanding steep discounts on Venezuelan crude, pressured by a surge of sanctioned oil from Russia and Iran and heightened loading risks in the South American country as the US boosts its military presence in the Caribbean.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian sea drones hit and disabled a tanker involved in trading Russian oil as it sailed through Ukraine's exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea.
Investors remain focused on developments in Ukraine peace talks. The leaders of Britain, France and Germany held a call with Trump to discuss Washington's latest peace efforts to end the war in Ukraine, in what they said was a "critical moment" in the process.
On the US policy front, a sharply divided Federal Reserve cut interest rates. Lower rates can reduce consumer borrowing costs and boost economic growth and oil demand.