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Oil Gains on Prospect of More Sanctions on Russia; OPEC+ Output Hike Seen Modest

FILED - 16 August 2019, Emlichheim: Pump jacks operate at Wintershall Dea premises. Photo: Mohssen Assanimoghaddam/dpa
FILED - 16 August 2019, Emlichheim: Pump jacks operate at Wintershall Dea premises. Photo: Mohssen Assanimoghaddam/dpa
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Oil Gains on Prospect of More Sanctions on Russia; OPEC+ Output Hike Seen Modest

FILED - 16 August 2019, Emlichheim: Pump jacks operate at Wintershall Dea premises. Photo: Mohssen Assanimoghaddam/dpa
FILED - 16 August 2019, Emlichheim: Pump jacks operate at Wintershall Dea premises. Photo: Mohssen Assanimoghaddam/dpa

Oil prices climbed more than $1 on Monday, regaining some of last week's losses, helped by the prospect of more sanctions on Russian crude after an overnight strike on Ukraine.

OPEC+ flagged plans to further increase production from October but the amount was modest.

Brent crude climbed $1.24, or 1.9%, to $66.74 a barrel by 0640 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.17, or 1.9%, to $63.04 a barrel.

Both benchmarks fell more than 2% on Friday as a weak US jobs report dimmed the outlook for energy demand. They lost more than 3% last week.

OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, agreed on Sunday to further raise oil production from October.

OPEC+ has been increasing production since April after years of cuts to support the oil market. The latest decision comes despite a likely looming oil glut in the northern hemisphere winter months.

Eight members of OPEC+ will lift production from October by 137,000 barrels per day. That, however, is much lower than increases of about 555,000 bpd for September and August and 411,000 bpd in July and June.

"The oil market was supported by relief over OPEC+'s modest output hike and a technical bounce following last week's decline," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, adding the OPEC+ output hike had been priced in since last week.

"Expectations of tighter supply from potential new US sanctions on Russia are also lending support," he said.

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday he is ready to move to a second phase of sanctioning Russia, the closest he has come to suggesting he is on the verge of ramping up sanctions against Moscow or its oil buyers over the war in Ukraine.

New sanctions on buyers of Russian oil could disrupt crude flows, energy trader Gunvor's global head of research and analysis, Frederic Lasserre, said on Monday.

Russia launched its largest air attack of the war on Ukraine, setting the main government building on fire in central Kyiv and killing at least four people, Ukrainian officials said on Sunday.

Trump said on Sunday that individual European leaders would visit the United States on Monday and Tuesday to discuss how to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war.

"Buying emerged as the OPEC+ output increase was smaller than anticipated, while fading prospects for peace in the Russia-Ukraine war and views that Russian oil won't flood the market also supported prices," said Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst with Rakuten Securities.

In a note over the weekend, Goldman Sachs said it expects a slightly larger oil surplus in 2026 as supply upgrades in the Americas outweigh a downgrade to Russia supply and stronger global demand. It left its Brent/WTI price forecast unchanged for 2025 and projected the 2026 average at $56/$52 a barrel.

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Business

Strait of Hormuz Blockade Drives up Costs at Panama Canal

Aerial view of the One Contribution container ship sailing under the Tokio flag as it enters the Panama Canal in Panama City on April 21, 2026. (EPA)
Aerial view of the One Contribution container ship sailing under the Tokio flag as it enters the Panama Canal in Panama City on April 21, 2026. (EPA)
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Strait of Hormuz Blockade Drives up Costs at Panama Canal

Aerial view of the One Contribution container ship sailing under the Tokio flag as it enters the Panama Canal in Panama City on April 21, 2026. (EPA)
Aerial view of the One Contribution container ship sailing under the Tokio flag as it enters the Panama Canal in Panama City on April 21, 2026. (EPA)

The war in the Middle East has boosted demand to move vital cargo through the Panama Canal to such an extent that one vessel carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) paid $4 million to skip the line and avoid a wait that can take up to five days, according to an official report.

A surge in such payments has been recorded since the US-Israeli attacks on Iran began February 28, which led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas exports from Gulf countries.

To meet fuel demand, Asia's refineries are choosing to buy oil or gas from the United States and ship it through the transoceanic waterway instead of purchasing from Gulf countries who rely on the Strait of Hormuz, according to reports from the Panama Canal Authority.

The average number of ships passing through the canal on a daily basis has "remained strong," the authority told AFP in a statement Tuesday, with 34 ships in January and 37 ships in March. Some days exceeded 40 transits.

"The increase reflects changes in global trade patterns and market conditions, including geopolitical factors affecting key routes," the authority said.

Ships transiting the canal book their passage well in advance, and ships without bookings wait an average of five days to get through, but there is an auction where last-minute transits can be purchased.

The most recent auction included a $4 million bid for an LNG vessel, and in recent weeks two oil tankers exceeded bids of $3 million, the authority said.

Past average auction prices between October and February stood at around $130,000, and rose to $385,000 in March and April.

Five percent of global maritime trade passes through the Panama Canal, and its main users are the US and China. The route primarily connects the US East Coast with China, South Korea and Japan.

In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, which runs October to September, the Panamanian waterway recorded passage of 6,288 ships, a year-on-year increase of 3.7 percent, according to official figures.

Business

UK Inflation Jumps in March as Middle East War Propels Energy Prices

Vehicles pass a petrol station as they make their way down the A3 during the morning rush hour near Ripley, south-west of London on April 22, 2026. (AFP)
Vehicles pass a petrol station as they make their way down the A3 during the morning rush hour near Ripley, south-west of London on April 22, 2026. (AFP)
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UK Inflation Jumps in March as Middle East War Propels Energy Prices

Vehicles pass a petrol station as they make their way down the A3 during the morning rush hour near Ripley, south-west of London on April 22, 2026. (AFP)
Vehicles pass a petrol station as they make their way down the A3 during the morning rush hour near Ripley, south-west of London on April 22, 2026. (AFP)

Britain's annual inflation rate jumped to 3.3 percent in March as the Middle East war sent oil and gas prices surging, official data showed Wednesday.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) increased from 3.0 percent in the 12 months to February, the Office for National Statistics said in a statement.

"Inflation climbed in March, largely due to increased fuel prices, which saw their largest increase for over three years," Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS, said in a statement.

Finance minister Rachel Reeves reiterated the Labour government's opposition to a conflict that has increased the cost of living for millions of Britons.

"This is not our war, but it is pushing up bills for families and businesses. That's why it's my number one priority to keep costs down," Reeves said in a statement.

At 3.3 percent, the latest UK inflation figure matches the March print for the United States. But the pace of the CPI increase in the world's biggest economy was far sharper, having stood at 2.4 percent in February.

Britain's inflation rate is also much larger than in the eurozone, where annual inflation rose to 2.6 percent in March from 1.9 percent in February.

The US-Iran war began on February 28, sending energy prices rocketing.

They have since pulled back on a ceasefire that US President Donald Trump extended Tuesday. But oil and gas prices remain far above their pre-war levels as Gulf supplies remain largely blocked from transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Business

Pakistan Receives Additional $1 Billion from Saudi Arabia Under $3 Billion Package

The State Bank of Pakistan logo is seen at a reception desk at its headquarters in Karachi (Reuters)
The State Bank of Pakistan logo is seen at a reception desk at its headquarters in Karachi (Reuters)
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Pakistan Receives Additional $1 Billion from Saudi Arabia Under $3 Billion Package

The State Bank of Pakistan logo is seen at a reception desk at its headquarters in Karachi (Reuters)
The State Bank of Pakistan logo is seen at a reception desk at its headquarters in Karachi (Reuters)

Pakistan’s central bank said Tuesday it had received $1 billion from Saudi Arabia’s finance ministry as a second tranche of a recently agreed $3 billion deposit package between the two countries.

In a post on its official X account, the State Bank of Pakistan said the funds were credited on April 20, 2026. The transfer comes just days after Islamabad received a first tranche of $2 billion, which was deposited on April 15.

With this latest payment, Saudi Arabia has completed the full transfer of the agreed $3 billion support in a short period, providing immediate liquidity that strengthens Pakistan’s monetary policy flexibility.

Ongoing Saudi support

The inflow caps a week of major Saudi financial moves aimed at supporting Pakistan’s economic stability and easing balance-of-payments pressures. In addition to the new $3 billion package, Riyadh last week renewed an existing $5 billion deposit held at the State Bank of Pakistan.

Analysts say the combination of rolling over existing deposits and injecting new funds lifts total Saudi deposits at the central bank, directly bolstering foreign exchange reserves and giving Islamabad a stronger footing in ongoing negotiations with international financial institutions.

Impact on Pakistan’s economy

Saudi support is seen as a key pillar of Pakistan’s efforts to restore macroeconomic stability. The funds are expected to help stabilize the rupee against the US dollar, improve the country’s financial position and its ability to meet external obligations, and provide a buffer against external shocks and high energy costs.

The financial measures underscore the depth of the strategic partnership between Riyadh and Islamabad, and reflect Saudi Arabia’s commitment to supporting Pakistan’s economic stability as part of its broader role in promoting regional and global financial stability.