US Economy in the Dark as Government Shutdown Cuts off Crucial Data

The US government shutdown enters its 30th day on Thursday, putting a scheduled GDP data release on ice along with other economic reports this month. DANIEL HEUER / AFP/File
The US government shutdown enters its 30th day on Thursday, putting a scheduled GDP data release on ice along with other economic reports this month. DANIEL HEUER / AFP/File
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US Economy in the Dark as Government Shutdown Cuts off Crucial Data

The US government shutdown enters its 30th day on Thursday, putting a scheduled GDP data release on ice along with other economic reports this month. DANIEL HEUER / AFP/File
The US government shutdown enters its 30th day on Thursday, putting a scheduled GDP data release on ice along with other economic reports this month. DANIEL HEUER / AFP/File

US policymakers, financial institutions and business owners have been flying blind for almost a month as a government shutdown has stopped the release of crucial federal economic data ranging from the size of the labor force to the country's GDP.

The void is set to deepen by Thursday as Washington holds off publishing gross domestic product (GDP) numbers measuring the growth of the world's biggest economy in the July to September period, said AFP.

The United States has already delayed reports on employment, trade, retail sales and others, only recalling some furloughed staff to produce key inflation figures needed for the government to calculate Social Security payments.

Congressional Republicans and Democrats remain at an impasse, each assigning blame to the other side over the shutdown with no quick end in sight and food aid for millions now at stake.

Analysts warn the growing information blackout could, in turn, cause businesses to lower hiring and investment.

"There's a huge demand right now for government data," said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. "Every industry is trying to figure out if the Federal Reserve is going to keep cutting interest rates."

The central bank's decisions hinge upon the economy's health, particularly inflation and the weakening jobs market.

"This is the time of year where most organizations are finalizing their budgets for 2026," Long told AFP.

"So, almost any company is sitting there thinking: Do we think 2026 is going to be an uptick? Or a slowdown, or a recession?"

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the shutdown could cost the economy up to $14 billion.

Economist Matthew Martin of Oxford Economics expects firms to proceed cautiously, with President Donald Trump's tariffs already sending uncertainty surging this year.

"Businesses would therefore reduce their overall hiring to be on the safe side of things, until they see data that really points towards increased demand, or at least stabilization in the economy," he told AFP.

Similarly, those in the financial markets need data to make investments and decide their moves in equities, he said.

'Tainted data'

Should the shutdown last through mid-November, as prediction markets expect, most delayed data releases will likely not come out until December, Goldman Sachs said in a note this week.

"The risk would grow that delays could distort not just the October but the November data too," the report added.

Long said that October's data could even be lost if the shutdown drags on for too long, "because the data was not collected."

Government workers could ask people to recount economic conditions once the shutdown ends, but this proves tricky if the delay is too long, she said.

The risk is no data or "tainted data" if memories are seen as less reliable over time, she added.

While economists, policymakers and business leaders have been relying on private sector data, analysts stress that these cannot replace numbers produced by the US government, which are viewed as the gold standard.

"We have a remarkable amount of uncertainty about just literally what's happening with labor supply, like how many people are in the United States and want jobs," said Brookings Institution senior fellow Wendy Edelberg.

She added that there is significant disagreement about how many people have left the country since the start of 2025.

Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House said despite strong GDP growth recently, there are many "signs of strain underneath the surface," alongside signals that "not every component or group in the economy is doing equally well."

She cautioned that the shutdown is unhelpful for the economy: "If you're not sure when your next paycheck is coming as a government worker, you're not going to be going out to eat for dinner."

"You're maybe pushing off a trip, or just not buying little discretionary things."



Alkhorayef to Asharq Al-Awsat: Saudi Efforts Drive Mining Investment

Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef speaks at a press conference in response to a question from Asharq Al-Awsat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef speaks at a press conference in response to a question from Asharq Al-Awsat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Alkhorayef to Asharq Al-Awsat: Saudi Efforts Drive Mining Investment

Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef speaks at a press conference in response to a question from Asharq Al-Awsat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef speaks at a press conference in response to a question from Asharq Al-Awsat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef said on Tuesday the Kingdom is intensifying its efforts, through the Future Minerals Forum and by reshaping long-standing negative perceptions of the sector, to encourage investors worldwide to reassess the value of mining investments, particularly in Africa.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the Riyadh forum, held under the patronage of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz, Alkhorayef said that one of the biggest challenges facing the mining sector was the flow of investment.

This issue had been raised since the launch of the Future Minerals Forum and the roundtable initiative, he added.

The World Bank's participation in the Future Minerals Forum signaled the importance of finding solutions capable of supporting investment in the sector, he stressed.

Alkhorayef revealed that there were other initiatives aimed at supporting sectors complementary to mining, particularly logistics services, through government partnerships and support provided by international organizations, alongside banks and development funds.

The international ministerial meeting of ministers responsible for mining affairs was held on Tuesday as part of the Future Minerals Forum.

It is regarded as the world’s largest and most prominent government platform for discussing the future of the mining and minerals sector, with participation from over 100 countries, more than 70 international and non-governmental organizations, as well as business federations and leading global industry executives.

The meeting is following up on progress in the three ministerial initiatives, identifying upcoming work milestones, and cooperating on capacity building with international partners and skills development.

It will also launch the Future Minerals Framework as a scientific pathway to align visions and boost cooperation worldwide.


Saudi Arabia Urges Collective Action to Boost Mineral Supplies, Future Jobs

Representatives from 100 governments and 70 international organizations gathered on Tuesday to develop a roadmap for securing the flow of critical minerals the world needs to achieve its digital and green transitions. (Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef on X)
Representatives from 100 governments and 70 international organizations gathered on Tuesday to develop a roadmap for securing the flow of critical minerals the world needs to achieve its digital and green transitions. (Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef on X)
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Saudi Arabia Urges Collective Action to Boost Mineral Supplies, Future Jobs

Representatives from 100 governments and 70 international organizations gathered on Tuesday to develop a roadmap for securing the flow of critical minerals the world needs to achieve its digital and green transitions. (Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef on X)
Representatives from 100 governments and 70 international organizations gathered on Tuesday to develop a roadmap for securing the flow of critical minerals the world needs to achieve its digital and green transitions. (Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef on X)

Under the patronage of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz, Riyadh has emerged as the “global capital of mining” by hosting the fifth ministerial roundtable of the Future Minerals Forum 2026.

The meeting was not merely a forum for discussion, but a platform to launch a new phase of international cooperation under the theme “Minerals: Meeting the Challenges of a New Era of Development.”

Representatives from 100 governments and 70 international organizations gathered on Tuesday to develop a roadmap for securing the flow of critical minerals the world needs to achieve its digital and green transitions.

The gathering marked a significant shift in collective action, reviewing progress since the launch of three initiatives in 2023 and urging governments to join the Future Minerals Framework.

The framework is not simply an agreement but a vital mechanism to strengthen partnerships between supplier and consumer countries, and to build an investment ecosystem capable of attracting public and private financing.

This momentum culminated in an announcement by Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef of the appointment of a permanent ministerial steering committee of 17 founding member states, selected to ensure geographic balance and representation of both supplier and consumer countries.

The committee will provide strategic guidance, oversee implementation of initiatives, and ensure the continuity of dialogue between major producing and consuming powers.

Ministerial guidance

Alkhorayef stated that achieving countries’ economic, industrial, and energy ambitions depends on the availability of secure and resilient mineral supplies, stressing that such supplies cannot be guaranteed without substantial investments and the adoption of innovative technologies, which require significant financing.

He said mineral resources are at the core of technologies driving electrification and digitalization, and form the foundation of industrial development and future jobs in both producing and consuming countries, making them a key driver of global growth.

Alkhorayef noted that joint work over the past five years had delivered progress beyond expectations, adding that details of these achievements were documented in a booklet provided to participants.

He cited cooperation with the World Bank to address the financing gap in mineral exploration and the elevation of infrastructure financing on the global agenda.

He said efforts also included leading a new dialogue focused on transparency and supply chain traceability, developing standards that reflect current realities, and establishing a network of centers of excellence to build capabilities in talent, sustainability, and technological empowerment.

These initiatives, he said, embody the roundtable’s goal of finding common ground on difficult issues, aligning supplier and consumer countries, and bringing governments, industry, and multilateral organizations under one roof.

The minister praised the participation of a large number of ministers and representatives, whether attending for the first time or regular participants, saying the turnout reflected the importance of joint international action.

He recalled that the first Future Minerals ministerial roundtable, hosted in 2022, brought together 32 countries and focused on what was then known as the “greater region,” encompassing Africa, West, and Central Asia.

Today, senior representatives from over 100 countries and 70 international organizations are participating.

Global development
The expanded participation came in response to requests from countries in other regions, such as Latin America, reflecting the global importance of the dialogue and participants’ ability to shape solutions, Alkhorayef added.

He pointed to growing interest from consuming countries in engaging in the discussion, noting that the table today brings together representation from all G20 countries alongside producers and consumers, underscoring that the right dialogue is taking place with the right parties at the right time and place.

This presence reflects a shared responsibility to shape a new era of global development, prosperity, and stability through the use of minerals, he remarked, emphasizing that minerals are the cornerstone of global development.

At the same time, the minister acknowledged challenges including slow project development, fragmented global policies, infrastructure gaps, financing constraints, and a lack of trust in the sector.

None of these challenges can be addressed individually, he explained, adding that genuine, well-designed cooperation among the countries gathered can make a difference.

Alkhorayef urged participants to use their shared time wisely, adopt a long-term mindset, and engage in frank, practical discussions that lead to a vital action agenda for the planet’s future, emphasizing that collective action is the foundation for securing the mineral supplies the world needs.

Supply chains

Saudi Vice Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources for Mining Affairs Khalid Al-Mudaifer reviewed progress made in 2025 across the three ministerial roundtable initiatives: developing an international framework to scale up infrastructure financing and align enabling government policies, building capabilities in emerging supply regions through a network of centers of excellence, and enhancing transparency of mineral supply chains through traceability.

He stated that the world requires more than $5 trillion to meet its energy needs by 2035, encompassing both electricity and infrastructure, noting that this capital requirement applies to over 20 mining companies amid significant financing challenges.

Al-Mudaifer spoke about developing the Global Mining Framework announced by Saudi Arabia last year to maximize value creation in supplier countries, stressing the importance of cooperation at the meeting to confront this major challenge and agree on key enablers to seize opportunities.

He outlined policies that support supply chain development, value creation for the sector, enabling infrastructure, responsible mining practices, skills development for a qualified workforce, the technology needed to make operations safer and more productive, and easier access to reliable geological data to attract investors and accelerate exploration.

Future minerals framework

He presented for discussion a draft of the Future Minerals Framework, which outlines principles and objectives and initiates a process to enhance cooperation between supplier and consumer countries to develop mineral supplies.

The framework aims to boost cooperation between producing and consuming countries by creating an inclusive, multi-stakeholder space that brings together decision-makers to discuss complex challenges and identify solutions to secure the minerals needed for development.

It seeks to attract investment to develop mineral value chains and infrastructure in the “super region” spanning Africa, West and Central Asia, and other supply regions, maximize regional mineral value chains, and drive local value creation through infrastructure financing and cross-border partnerships.

It aims to establish an attractive investment ecosystem for public and private financing, promote responsible supply through transparency and traceability, integrate sustainability priorities across all stages of mineral value chains, build capacities and policy frameworks, and empower emerging supplier countries to maximize the benefits of their mineral wealth.

The framework is based on voluntary participation, consensus-based decision-making, transparency, accountability, and fair benefit sharing, as well as adherence to international responsible sourcing frameworks and cooperation with industry, multilateral partners, and civil society.

The framework represents the culmination of work carried out by the Future Minerals Forum since 2023, with initiatives reaching a level of maturity that requires active state participation in implementation through an agreed structure and mechanism overseen by the steering committee.

It also allows for the integration of new initiatives adopted by the ministerial roundtable.

The World Bank Group presented a new minerals strategy focused on supporting countries in strengthening mineral development and value chains, from extraction and processing to regional manufacturing, to create greater local value and jobs.

The strategy is built on three pillars: policies, governance and institutions, core infrastructure, and private sector mobilization and innovation.

Participants welcomed the strategy and stressed the importance of the forum’s partnerships with multilateral organizations, including the World Bank Group, in developing innovative mechanisms to finance infrastructure that supports the resilience of global supply chains.

Voluntary standard

The voluntary standard will complement existing standards and draw on the forum’s sustainability framework, which is built on four priorities identified by countries: development, cooperation, capacity building, and performance.

The development of the voluntary standard is expected to take approximately two years, enabling countries to design legal, policy, and regulatory frameworks that enhance supply chain transparency and boost investor confidence.

The work will be coordinated through a sustainability center being established at Mohammed VI Polytechnic University in Morocco.

The sustainability center is one of the outcomes of the forum’s initiative to create a network of centers of excellence for capacity building in supply regions.

Participants praised the achievement and underscored its role in delivering tangible benefits to enhance mineral supply transparency, pledging to encourage national standards bodies in their countries to take part in the process.


Trump Set to Lead Largest-Ever US Delegation to World Economic Forum in Davos Next Week

This photograph shows a sign of the World Economic Forum (WEF) at the Congress center, during the WEF annual meeting in Davos on January 20, 2025. (AFP)
This photograph shows a sign of the World Economic Forum (WEF) at the Congress center, during the WEF annual meeting in Davos on January 20, 2025. (AFP)
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Trump Set to Lead Largest-Ever US Delegation to World Economic Forum in Davos Next Week

This photograph shows a sign of the World Economic Forum (WEF) at the Congress center, during the WEF annual meeting in Davos on January 20, 2025. (AFP)
This photograph shows a sign of the World Economic Forum (WEF) at the Congress center, during the WEF annual meeting in Davos on January 20, 2025. (AFP)

US President Donald Trump will return to the World Economic Forum's annual meeting of business, political and cultural elites in Davos, Switzerland next week, leading a record-large US delegation, organizers said Tuesday.

The Geneva-based think tank says Trump, whose assertive foreign policy on issues as diverse as Venezuela and Greenland in recent months has stirred concerns among US friends and foes alike, will be accompanied by five Cabinet secretaries and other top officials for the event running from Monday through Jan. 23.

A total of 850 CEOs and chairs of the world's top companies will be among the 3,000 participants from 130 countries expected in the Alpine resort this year, the forum says.

Forum President Borge Brende says six of seven G7 leaders — including Trump — will attend, as well as presidents Volodymyr Zelenskky of Ukraine, Ahmed al-Sharaa of Syria and others. A total of 64 heads of state or government are expected so far — also a record — though that number could increase before the start of the event, he said.

China's delegation will be headed by Vice Premier He Lifeng, Beijing's top trade official, Brende said.

The forum, which held its first annual meeting in 1971, has long been a hub of dialogue, debate and deal-making. Trump has already attended twice while president and was beamed in by video last year just days after being inaugurated for his second term.

Critics call it a venue for the world’s elites to hobnob and do business that sometimes comes at the expense of workers, the impoverished or people on the margins of society. The forum counters that its stated goal is “improving the state of the world” and insists many advocacy groups, academics and cultural leaders have an important role too.