Saudi Budget Forum Reveals Govt. Spending Now Independent of ‘Oil Cycle’

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan and Economy Minister Faisal Alibrahim attend the Saudi Budget Forum (Saudi 2026 Budget Forum)
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan and Economy Minister Faisal Alibrahim attend the Saudi Budget Forum (Saudi 2026 Budget Forum)
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Saudi Budget Forum Reveals Govt. Spending Now Independent of ‘Oil Cycle’

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan and Economy Minister Faisal Alibrahim attend the Saudi Budget Forum (Saudi 2026 Budget Forum)
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan and Economy Minister Faisal Alibrahim attend the Saudi Budget Forum (Saudi 2026 Budget Forum)

Saudi Arabia’s 2026 budget forum, held a day after the Cabinet approved the new fiscal plan under the chairmanship of Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman, served as a high-level platform to explain the budget’s objectives and strategic direction.

Officials said the budget aims to balance fiscal prudence with the acceleration of Vision 2030’s third phase, intensifying efforts to implement its programs and projects to deliver sustainable economic and social impact.

The Crown Prince has repeatedly stressed that citizens’ welfare remains the government’s top priority.

The Cabinet approved the 2026 budget on Tuesday with total spending of 1.31 trillion riyals ($349.3 billion) and projected revenues of 1.15 trillion riyals ($306 billion), implying a deficit of 165 billion riyals ($43.9 billion).

Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said the government had overcome a key structural challenge by ending the link between public spending and oil price cycles. “Expenditure is now increasing in a studied, deliberate manner, away from the volatility of the oil sector,” he said.

Economy and Planning Minister Faisal Alibrahim said the kingdom is entering a new phase in which artificial intelligence will become the main driver of non-oil growth, reshaping the economy.

Technology, he said, will amplify economic returns and allow Saudi companies such as HUMAIN to play a leading role in the future economy, similar to the role Aramco played in the energy sector.

Officials said this approach is part of a broader strategy to strengthen institutional capacity and expand private-sector partnerships to sustain the momentum of non-oil growth, projected to remain between 4.5 and 6 % in coming years.

Fiscal Policy Shift: Spending Decoupled from Oil

At the forum’s opening session, al-Jadaan outlined a new fiscal policy designed to delink spending from oil-revenue fluctuations — a structural reform marking a turning point in Saudi financial management.

“The biggest challenge in previous years was that spending moved in line with the economic cycle,” he said. “Under the current policy, spending now grows in a disciplined and planned way.”

He said the shift ensures steady non-oil growth regardless of oil-market swings. The minister noted that the oil sector had recorded “negative growth for eight years,” underscoring the need for this policy change.

Al-Jadaan added that the government has capped public debt at 40 % of GDP and expects non-oil revenues this year to reach 501 billion riyals ($133.4 billion), accounting for almost 46 % of total revenues — the highest share in five years.

He said debt levels were not a concern “as long as returns exceed costs,” adding: “Debt in itself is not good on a personal level, and the same applies to the state — but there are exceptions.”

He stressed that “the government’s goal is not to raise taxes but to expand the size of the economy.”

Economic Transformation Delivering ‘Large Real Returns’

Alibrahim said Vision 2030’s transformation drive is producing “very large real returns,” reflected in strong growth across sectors. He emphasized that quality growth, not just quantity, will define the next stage.

He said 74 economic activities have grown by more than 5 % annually over the past five years, while 37 have expanded by over 10%. “The non-oil economy is now the foundation of sustainable growth,” he said, noting that cumulative growth since 2015 has exceeded 30% and reliance on oil revenues has fallen from 90 to 68%.

Non-oil growth is expected to average between 4.5 and 6% annually in the coming years.

Private-sector participation, he said, remains essential to sustaining this trajectory. Its contribution to GDP has risen from 30 to 50%, with further room for expansion “provided projects are executed at the right cost.”

Alibrahim said hundreds of international firms have entered the Saudi market, and domestic investment has surged, showing the kingdom’s progress in building a competitive business climate. “Opening long-term opportunities for the private sector is crucial to creating quality jobs and achieving sustainable growth,” he said.

He estimated that infrastructure investment needs would reach 3.5 trillion riyals over the next decade, calling infrastructure “one of the fastest-growing asset classes globally.”

The minister said artificial intelligence will power the next phase of economic diversification, boosting productivity, maximizing returns, and attracting global talent and technology firms. He cited HUMAIN, a Public Investment Fund- and Aramco-backed firm, as poised to take a pioneering role in the future economy “just as Aramco did for decades in energy.”

Foreign Property Ownership and Housing

Housing Minister Majed al-Hogail said the government will begin implementing a new law next month allowing foreigners to own property in Saudi Arabia. The legislation, he said, is intended to bring balance to the real-estate market through the white-land fee policy.

He said development housing programs for low-income families had enabled more than 50,000 households to acquire homes and protect over 16,000 families from default.

Al-Hogail said the Finance Ministry and the central bank had provided 46.6 billion riyals to inject liquidity into housing programs. More than 250,000 citizens benefited from mortgage guarantees for those with financial challenges.

He said over 20,000 rental contracts have been signed under market-balancing initiatives, with plans to add 60,000 housing units next year and 100,000 under off-plan sales. The housing program aims to grant ownership to 20,000 families by 2026.

Logistics Hub Ambitions

Transport and Logistics Minister Saleh al-Jasser said Saudi Arabia is witnessing a major transformation toward becoming a global logistics hub and a model of integrated mobility.

Private-sector investment in transport and logistics has exceeded 280 billion riyals across aviation, maritime, rail, and road services, he said.

The aviation sector, he added, is expanding rapidly with more than 500 aircraft on confirmed order for national carriers. Passenger routes have increased to 172 from 100 before the pandemic, with a target of 250 by 2030.

Projects include expanding King Abdulaziz Airport, building King Salman Airport, opening new airports in Jazan and Jouf, and launching an additional national carrier in the Eastern Province.

Air-freight volumes grew 30% last year, with a goal of surpassing 3.5 million tons by 2030. The rail network now spans 6,000 kilometers, with plans to double its length, move 30 million tons of freight and 10 million passengers, and add 10 new passenger trains.

Building a World-Class Labor Market

Human Resources and Social Development Minister Ahmed al-Rajhi said Saudi Arabia is crafting a new strategy to make its labor market among the best globally.

He said the 2020 Labor Market Strategy introduced 28 reform initiatives, 94% of which have been implemented. His ministry participates in eight of the 11 Vision 2030 programs and has completed most of its 100 related initiatives.

The number of Saudis working in the private sector rose from 1.7 million to 2.5 million in four years, he said. Engineering jobs grew from 52,000 to 218,000 Saudi nationals, and freelance work expanded to 430,000 workers nationwide.

Tourism Growth

Deputy Tourism Minister Princess Haifa Al Saud said the number of visitors to the kingdom reached 116 million, with spending totaling 275 billion riyals.

Tourists from Europe accounted for 14% of arrivals and those from East Asia and the Pacific 15%. Domestic tourism spending climbed to 105 billion riyals by the end of the third quarter of 2025, up 18% year-on-year, reflecting the sector’s growing role in diversifying revenue sources.

Defense Industries and Localization

General Authority for Military Industries Governor Ahmed al-Ohali said the sector has undergone a major transformation over the past six years, driven by regulatory reforms and investment incentives.

He said the number of licensed defense companies jumped from fewer than five in 2018 to more than 340 in 2024, while local military spending rose from 4 to 25% of total outlays and local content reached 40%.

 

 



Saudi Arabia Reinforces Global Mining Leadership at PDAC 2026 in Canada

Al-Belushi noted that the Kingdom has offered over 46,000 km² for exploration - SPA
Al-Belushi noted that the Kingdom has offered over 46,000 km² for exploration - SPA
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Saudi Arabia Reinforces Global Mining Leadership at PDAC 2026 in Canada

Al-Belushi noted that the Kingdom has offered over 46,000 km² for exploration - SPA
Al-Belushi noted that the Kingdom has offered over 46,000 km² for exploration - SPA

Saudi Arabia participated in the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention, held March 1–4, 2026, highlighting exploration and mining opportunities in the Kingdom built on vast geological data and supported by a reformed regulatory framework.

On the sidelines of the conference, Deputy Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources for Mineral Resources Management Abdulrahman Al-Belushi, delivered keynote remarks at the Saudi Showcase titled “KSA: The Future Hub for Global Mineral Processing,” highlighting the Kingdom’s transformation from an emerging jurisdiction to a top global mining destination.

Al-Belushi emphasized that Saudi Arabia’s $2.5 trillion mineral wealth, modern regulatory framework, transparent licensing rounds, large-scale geological mapping program covering 700,000 km² of the Arabian Shield, and its world-class mine-to-market facilities provide a strong foundation for global investors seeking long-term opportunities across the mining sector, SPA reported.

During his participation at the International Mines Ministers Summit (IMMS), Al-Belushi highlighted the importance of global partnerships to meet rising mineral demand and shared details of the Future Minerals Forum’s Ministerial Roundtable Initiative, which promotes economic development, responsible supply, and capacity building across the mining sector.

Al-Belushi noted that the Kingdom has offered over 46,000 km² for exploration and is actively addressing financing gaps through a suite of competitive incentives, including the Exploration Enablement Program to support early-stage investment.

He also highlighted ongoing talent development initiatives, such as the recently launched Saudi School of Mines at the fifth Future Minerals Forum in January, alongside more than 80 years of geological data made digitally accessible to investors through the National Geological Database (NGD).

Throughout PDAC 2026, the Saudi delegation engaged in a series of bilateral meetings with global mining executives, investors, and institutional partners to accelerate collaboration across exploration, mining services, processing, and downstream integration.

By combining governance reform, large-scale geological data, financial risk-sharing mechanisms, and integrated mine-to-market infrastructure, Saudi Arabia is positioning itself as a strategic partner in strengthening global mineral supply chains.

Saudi Arabia’s participation at PDAC affirms that the Kingdom’s mining sector has moved from an emerging market to a competitive global destination. Through a modernized regulatory framework, extensive geological data, and competitive incentives, the Kingdom continues to strengthen its position as a trusted and preferred destination for mining investment—a reliable partner in building resilient and sustainable mineral supply chains.


S&P Global: UK Consumers Hit by Worries Over War in Iran

A man shops in a supermarket in Chanverrie, France, October 16, 2024. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe
A man shops in a supermarket in Chanverrie, France, October 16, 2024. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe
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S&P Global: UK Consumers Hit by Worries Over War in Iran

A man shops in a supermarket in Chanverrie, France, October 16, 2024. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe
A man shops in a supermarket in Chanverrie, France, October 16, 2024. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe

British consumers have turned their least confident since the start of last year following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, financial data firm S&P Global said on Monday in an early sign of the potential impact of the conflict on the economy.

S&P Global's Consumer Sentiment Index - based on a survey conducted ⁠March 5-9 - dropped ⁠to 44.1 in March from 44.8 in February, its lowest since January 2025.

"A marked deterioration of consumer sentiment in March means we are seeing the first ⁠concrete signs of the war in the Middle East damaging the UK economy," Maryam Baluch, an economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said, according to Reuters.

Households were the most downbeat about their financial prospects since December 2023 and the wariest about making big purchases in 14 months, the firm said.

The Bank ⁠of ⁠England, along with private economists, is watching for the impact of the US-Israeli war with Iran on the economy, including any hit to consumer spending as the rise in global energy prices threatens to push up inflation.

The BoE is likely to delay a previously expected interest rate cut on Thursday.


Gold Falls as Inflation Fears Pressure Fed Rate-cut Outlook

AFP_96 Gold bars weighing 1000 grams each are displayed at the Austrian Gold and Silver Refinery _Oegussa_ in Vienna
AFP_96 Gold bars weighing 1000 grams each are displayed at the Austrian Gold and Silver Refinery _Oegussa_ in Vienna
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Gold Falls as Inflation Fears Pressure Fed Rate-cut Outlook

AFP_96 Gold bars weighing 1000 grams each are displayed at the Austrian Gold and Silver Refinery _Oegussa_ in Vienna
AFP_96 Gold bars weighing 1000 grams each are displayed at the Austrian Gold and Silver Refinery _Oegussa_ in Vienna

Gold prices dipped on Monday, pressured by concerns that surging oil costs could stoke inflation further and prompt a more hawkish policy stance by major central banks including the US Federal Reserve, dulling the appeal of the non-yielding asset.

Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,983.17 per ounce, as of 0944 GMT. US gold futures for ‌April delivery ‌fell 1.5% to $4,987.30.

"The gold market has moved its ‌focus ⁠from looking at ⁠the implications of the Hormuz trade closure, and towards implications of longer-term inflation," said Bernard Dahdah, an analyst at Natixis.

"Higher oil prices mean higher inflation and this has repercussions on the Fed. The Fed could pivot, stop cutting rates and that puts downward pressure on gold prices."

Oil held above $100 a ⁠barrel, up more than 40% this month ‌to its highest levels since 2022, ‌after US-Israeli strikes on Iran prompted Tehran to halt shipments through ‌the Strait of Hormuz.

US President Donald Trump on Sunday pressed ‌allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz as Iranian forces continue attacks on the vital waterway amid the US-Israeli war on Iran, now in its third week.

The Fed will meet this week ‌for a two-day policy meeting, where it is widely expected to hold interest rates steady.

Other ⁠central ⁠banks including the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also meet this week, with the focus on policymakers' assessment of the Iran war on inflation, growth and future policies.

"But we expect central banks to be watchful of inflation risks without making knee-jerk policy rate hikes," UBS said in a note.

"In addition, the longer the US-Iran conflict goes on, the higher the risk of negative economic impacts, which should support hedging demand for gold."

Elsewhere, spot silver fell 2.6% to $78.46 per ounce. Spot platinum held steady at $2,024.85 and palladium slid 0.5% to $1,542.92.