How 2025 Decisions Redrew the Future of Riyadh’s Real Estate Market

Construction is seen at a real estate project in Riyadh. (SPA)
Construction is seen at a real estate project in Riyadh. (SPA)
TT

How 2025 Decisions Redrew the Future of Riyadh’s Real Estate Market

Construction is seen at a real estate project in Riyadh. (SPA)
Construction is seen at a real estate project in Riyadh. (SPA)

The Saudi capital underwent an unprecedented structural shift in its real estate market in 2025, driven by a forward-looking agenda led by Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince and Prime Minister. Far from incremental regulation, the year’s measures amounted to a deep corrective overhaul aimed at dismantling long-standing distortions, breaking land hoarding, expanding affordable housing supply, and firmly rebalancing landlord-tenant relations.

Together, the decisions ended years of speculation fueled by artificial scarcity and pushed the market toward maturity, one grounded in real demand, fair pricing, and transparency.

Observers dubbed 2025 a “white revolution” for Saudi real estate. The reforms severed the link between property and short-term speculation, restoring housing as a sustainable residential and investment product. Below is a detailed outline of the most significant of these historic decisions:

1- Unlocking land, boosting supply

In March, authorities lifted restrictions on sale, subdivision, development permits, and planning approvals for 81 million square meters north of Riyadh. A similar decision in October freed another 33.24 million square meters to the west.

The Royal Commission for Riyadh City was also mandated to deliver 10,000 - 40,000 fully serviced plots annually at subsidized prices capped at SAR 1,500 per square meter, curbing price manipulation and offering real alternatives for citizens.

2- Rent controls and contractual fairness

To stabilize households and businesses, the government froze annual rent increases for residential and commercial leases in Riyadh for five years starting in September. Enforced through the upgraded “Ejar” platform, the move halted arbitrary hikes while aligning growth with residents’ quality of life.

3- Tougher fees

An improved White Land Tax took effect in August, extending beyond vacant plots to include unoccupied built properties. Annual fees rose to as much as 10% of land value for parcels of 5,000 square meters or more within urban limits, raising the cost of land hoarding and incentivizing prompt development.

4- Investment openness and digital governance

A revised foreign ownership regime allowed non-Saudis - individuals and companies - to own property in designated zones under strict criteria, injecting international liquidity. Transparency was reinforced by the launch of the “Real Estate Balance” platform, providing real-time price indicators based on actual transactions and curbing phantom pricing.

5- Quality and urban standards

Policy shifted from quantity to quality with mandatory application of the Saudi Building Code and sustainability standards for all new developments, ensuring long-term operational value and preventing low-quality sprawl.

Structural shift

Sector specialists told Asharq Al-Awsat the measures represent a qualitative leap in market management, moving Riyadh from a scarcity and speculation-led cycle to a balanced market governed by genuine demand, efficient land use, disciplined contracts, and transparent indicators.

Khaled Al-Mobid, CEO of Menassat Realty Co., said the reforms were timely and corrective after years of rapid price escalation. He noted early positives: slowing price growth, a return to realistic negotiations, increased supply in some districts, and better-quality offerings focused on intrinsic value rather than quick appreciation.

Abdullah Al-Moussa, a real estate expert and broker, described the steps as addressing root causes, not symptoms.

He observed a behavioral shift, especially in northern Riyadh, from “hold and wait” to reassessment, alongside calmer price momentum, renewed interest in actual development, and clearer rental dynamics.

Saqr Al-Zahrani, another market expert, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the reforms tackled structural imbalances by breaking artificial scarcity created by undeveloped land banks.

Opening vast tracts north and west and introducing market-wide indicators restored “organized abundance,” aligning prices with real demand and purchasing power without heavy-handed intervention, he remarked.

He added that recent months have seen weaker demand for raw land and stalled auctions, contrasted with rising interest in off-plan sales and partnerships with developers.

Banks, too, have reprioritized toward projects with operational viability, lifting overall supply quality despite a temporary slowdown in some transactions.

Consumers, meanwhile, are showing greater patience and interest in self-build options, signaling a maturing market awareness.

Outlook

Experts expect the effects to continue through 2027, delivering broad price stability with limited corrections in overheated locations rather than sharp declines.

Homeownership, especially among young buyers, is projected to rise as capital shifts from land speculation to long-term development.

The 2025 decisions were not short-term fixes but the launch of a new social and economic trajectory for Riyadh’s property market, redefining real estate as a housing service and value-adding investment, not a speculative vessel.

As Riyadh advances toward becoming one of the world’s ten largest city economies, its real estate reset offers a model for aligning regulation with quality of life, transparency, and sustainable growth.



OPEC+ Decides on Fourth Oil Quota Hike Since Hormuz Closure

Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
TT

OPEC+ Decides on Fourth Oil Quota Hike Since Hormuz Closure

Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)

OPEC+ agreed on Sunday a fourth increase in its oil output targets in as many months, even though the US war with Iran is still preventing several of the group's members from pumping more.

The war has cut oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz, creating the world's biggest-ever supply crisis as key OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia have been unable to supply customers in full since the end of February.

Seven core members of OPEC+, which ‌groups ⁠OPEC and allied producers ⁠including Russia, have increased their output quotas from April to June by almost 600,000 barrels per day.

In reality, the group's production has collapsed due to export cuts by Gulf members, averaging 33.19 million bpd in April compared with 42.77 million in February, according to OPEC figures.

On Sunday, the seven members decided to increase targets by 188,000 bpd from July, OPEC said in a statement.

This is the same as the June hike, which was adjusted down from monthly increases ⁠of 206,000 bpd in May and April to take into ‌account the United Arab Emirates’ exit. The UAE left OPEC after almost 60 years.

On Friday, oil prices fell to around $93 a barrel as traders gained confidence that renewed conflict between the US and Iran was growing less likely. Prices were close to $72 before the war began.

The seven countries are ‌increasing production as part of the gradual unwinding of a 1.65 million bpd production cut that the group, which at the time ⁠included UAE, agreed ⁠in 2023.

The seven of 21 OPEC+ members who met on Sunday are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. In recent years, only the seven plus the UAE when it was a member have been involved in the group's output policy decisions.


China’s Central Bank Extends Gold Buying Spree for 19th Month in May

Gold items are displayed at a jewellery shop in downtown Kuwait City on June 6, 2026. (AFP)
Gold items are displayed at a jewellery shop in downtown Kuwait City on June 6, 2026. (AFP)
TT

China’s Central Bank Extends Gold Buying Spree for 19th Month in May

Gold items are displayed at a jewellery shop in downtown Kuwait City on June 6, 2026. (AFP)
Gold items are displayed at a jewellery shop in downtown Kuwait City on June 6, 2026. (AFP)

China's central bank increased up its gold reserves for a 19th month in May, data from the People's Bank of China showed on Sunday.

The country's gold reserves rose to 74.96 million ‌fine troy ‌ounces by the ‌end ⁠of May, versus the ⁠previous month's 74.64 million ounces

China's gold reserves were valued at $340.75 billion by the end of last month, down ⁠from $344.17 billion the ‌month prior, ‌according to the PBOC data.

Spot gold prices logged ‌a third straight month of decline in May as peace talks between the United ‌States and Iran failing to yield results.

Inflation ⁠risks ⁠following rising oil prices kept the "higher-for-longer" interest rate theme alive, with the dollar remaining elevated.

Gold continued to decline in June and was most recently traded at near $4,330 an ounce.


What is Expected from Today's OPEC+ Major Producers Meeting?

A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28, 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Phot
A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28, 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Phot
TT

What is Expected from Today's OPEC+ Major Producers Meeting?

A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28, 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Phot
A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28, 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Phot

All eyes turn Sunday to a series of intensive and simultaneous ministerial meetings of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ alliance. These meetings are taking place under exceptional circumstances in global energy markets, as producers strive through these multiple platforms to lay out the foundations for a new phase of balance and strategic certainty.

Three consecutive meetings will be held today, reflecting the precise institutional nature of managing this phase. It begins with the OPEC Administrative Conference, followed by the 66th meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), responsible for monitoring compliance levels, ensuring alignment, and approving current compensation plans, culminating in the 41st ministerial meeting of the broader OPEC+ alliance—a meeting the global investment community is eagerly anticipating.

This coordinated effort is driven by positive momentum and close coordination, epitomized by the important meeting that brought together Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum a few days ago.

The meeting reflected great optimism about the alliance's ability to lead the market with a flexible vision, with discussions focusing on the following positive points:

* Securing Energy Supplies: The Saudi affirmation that the world today needs "every molecule of energy" possible, reflecting the Kingdom's and the alliance's commitment to their role as a safety valve for the global economy.

* Flexibility and Readiness: OPEC+'s high ability to adapt and confront emergent geopolitical and logistical changes, while precisely revising future demand forecasts to ensure investment sustainability.

* Preparing for the Future: Coordination between the two poles aims to prepare a solid ground for the smooth and gradual return of supply flows once temporary logistical factors in the region subside.

Expectations and Targets

Instead of focusing on transient fluctuations, observers expect today's meeting to affirm collective commitment and reaffirm full solidarity among the seven major alliance countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – to ensure long-term market stability through the approval of flexible production policies. Sources told Reuters that production targets are expected to increase by approximately 188,000 barrels per day for next July, reflecting a cautious and measured approach that allows for quick and gradual intervention options based on daily market data.

Fitch

This flexible move aligns with the in-depth analysis presented by Fitch Ratings in its latest reports. The agency affirmed that the current closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents "a temporary and transient logistical shock" and in no way indicates a structural or permanent shift in global oil market trends.

The agency maintained its strategic view that global supplies will collectively exceed demand throughout 2026, based on the absence of any severe damage to oil infrastructure in the region, and the exceptional ability to achieve a rapid and intensive recovery of production in the Middle East once the strait is expected to reopen by the end of next July – assuming an actual closure period of approximately five months.

According to Fitch's base scenario, the average Brent crude price will hover around $87 per barrel throughout 2026, noting that the absence of production capacity due to the temporary logistical disruption will reduce supplies by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day compared to 2025.

However, the agency anticipates a sharp market rebound towards a surplus starting in September, with the surplus (oil glut) reaching approximately 4 million barrels per day in the last quarter of 2026, supported by strong growth from non-OPEC producers. This will exert downward pressure on prices, restoring the market to its natural equilibrium.

Fitch concludes that this dynamic lends significant effectiveness to OPEC+ plans, as the alliance possesses the ability to exceed previous quotas and pump additional quantities to ensure demand is met and prevent any structural shortages, solidifying the alliance's role as a strategic institution that transforms geopolitical challenges into real opportunities to support energy security, global economic growth, and sustainability.