Oil Prices Rise 1% as Supply Risks Remain in Focus

The Nave Photon, carrying crude oil from Venezuela, is docked at Port Freeport in Freeport, Texas, US, January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Antranik Tavitian
The Nave Photon, carrying crude oil from Venezuela, is docked at Port Freeport in Freeport, Texas, US, January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Antranik Tavitian
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Oil Prices Rise 1% as Supply Risks Remain in Focus

The Nave Photon, carrying crude oil from Venezuela, is docked at Port Freeport in Freeport, Texas, US, January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Antranik Tavitian
The Nave Photon, carrying crude oil from Venezuela, is docked at Port Freeport in Freeport, Texas, US, January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Antranik Tavitian

Oil prices rose over 1% on Friday as supply risks remained in focus despite the receding likelihood of a US military strike against Iran.

Brent crude was up 84 cents, or 1.3%, to $64.60 a barrel at 1413 GMT, on course for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. US West Texas Intermediate was up 80 cents, or 1.4%, to $59.99.

At those levels, Brent was on course for a 2% weekly gain and WTI for a 1.4% gain. Brent ⁠was up a little more than $1 at its intraday peak as investors continue to weigh the potential for supply outages should tensions in the Middle East escalate, Reuters reported.

"While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, they have not disappeared, and market participants remain concerned about potential supply disruptions," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Both benchmarks hit multi-month highs this week ⁠after protests flared up in Iran and US President Donald Trump signaled the potential for military strikes, but lost over 4% on Thursday as Trump said that Tehran's crackdown on the protesters was easing, allaying concerns of possible military action that could disrupt oil supplies.

"Above all, there are worries about a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in the event of an escalation, through which around a quarter of seaborne oil supplies flow," Commerzbank analysts said in a note.

"Should there be signs of a sustained easing on ⁠this front, developments in Venezuela are likely to return to the spotlight, with oil that was recently sanctioned or blocked gradually flowing onto the world market."

Meanwhile, analysts expect higher supply this year, potentially creating a ceiling for the geopolitical risk premium on prices.

"Despite the steady drumbeat of geopolitical risks and macro speculation, the underlying balance still points to ample supply," said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.

"Unless we see a genuine revival in Chinese demand or a meaningful bottleneck in physical barrel flows, oil looks range-bound, with Brent broadly hovering between $57 and $67."



Iraqi Oil Production Collapses as Hormuz Still Blocked by US-Iran War, Sources Say

Pumping station at the end of the Druzhba oil pipeline in Schwedt, Germany (AP)
Pumping station at the end of the Druzhba oil pipeline in Schwedt, Germany (AP)
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Iraqi Oil Production Collapses as Hormuz Still Blocked by US-Iran War, Sources Say

Pumping station at the end of the Druzhba oil pipeline in Schwedt, Germany (AP)
Pumping station at the end of the Druzhba oil pipeline in Schwedt, Germany (AP)

Iraqi oil production from its main southern oilfields has fallen by 70% to just 1.3 million barrels per day as the country is unable to export oil via the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war, 3 industry sources said on Sunday.

According to Reuters, production from the fields stood at around 4.3 million bpd before the war.


Egyptian Pound Hits Record Low as Mideast War Roils Markets

One of the ATMs in downtown Cairo, the Egyptian capital (AFP)
One of the ATMs in downtown Cairo, the Egyptian capital (AFP)
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Egyptian Pound Hits Record Low as Mideast War Roils Markets

One of the ATMs in downtown Cairo, the Egyptian capital (AFP)
One of the ATMs in downtown Cairo, the Egyptian capital (AFP)

Egypt's currency fell to a record low, trading at over 52 to the US dollar on Sunday, as the economic fallout of the war in the Middle East hits the region's most populous country.

The US-Israeli war on Iran has expanded across the Gulf and beyond, upending global energy markets and trade, and virtually halting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's crude oil travels.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi last week warned that the country was in a "state of near-emergency", warning of renewed inflationary pressures.

Despite Egypt not having been directly hit by the war, the fighting has nonetheless pushed some shipping companies away from its Suez Canal, a key source of foreign currency.

Egypt's import-dependent economy has proved highly sensitive to currency fluctuations in the past.

Inflation -- 11.9 percent in January -- peaked at nearly 40 percent in August 2023, on the back of a punishing economic crisis that has since eased, thanks in part to an over $50 billion bailout.


Saudi Index Extends Gains

An investor monitors the Saudi stocks (AFP)
An investor monitors the Saudi stocks (AFP)
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Saudi Index Extends Gains

An investor monitors the Saudi stocks (AFP)
An investor monitors the Saudi stocks (AFP)

Most Gulf stock markets rose in early trade on Sunday, with the Saudi index extending gains to a fifth session.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index .TASI climbed 2%, with all of its constituents posting gains, led by energy and materials stocks.

Saudi Aramco advanced 4% and Yanbu National Petrochemical surged 10%.

The Qatari benchmark .QSI rose 0.1%, with Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding gaining 5.3% and telecommunications company Ooredoo adding 2.1%.

In Muscat, ⁠the ⁠share index .MSX30 was up 1.4% and Bahrain's index .BAX edged up 0.2%.

Kuwait's index .BKP eased 0.5%, with most stocks in negative territory.

Kuwait Petroleum Corporation began cutting oil output on Saturday and declared force majeure, adding to earlier oil and gas reductions from Iraq and Qatar as the US-Iran war blocked shipments from the Middle East for the eighth consecutive day.