ECB Holds Rates Steady, Offers No Clues on Next Move

The European Central Bank building in Frankfurt (Reuters)
The European Central Bank building in Frankfurt (Reuters)
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ECB Holds Rates Steady, Offers No Clues on Next Move

The European Central Bank building in Frankfurt (Reuters)
The European Central Bank building in Frankfurt (Reuters)

The European Central Bank warned Thursday a stronger euro could push inflation down too far after recent gains in the single currency, but sought to downplay any immediate threat to the eurozone economy.

As expected, the central bank for the 21-nation single-currency area kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at two percent, where it has been since June last year.

ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed the eurozone economy, which has been picking up speed recently, remained "resilient" and officials were confident inflation would settle around the central bank's two-percent target.

But much attention at her press conference focused on the recent gains of the euro, which jumped above the $1.20 threshold last week as the dollar weakened on renewed worries about US economic policy under President Donald Trump.

Combined with news that inflation had dropped below the ECB's target in January, speculation had mounted that the central bank might start mulling if and when to cut rates.

Lagarde made a nod to these concerns, warning that "a stronger euro could bring inflation down beyond current expectations", and noted the issue had been discussed by ECB officials at Thursday's meeting.

A stronger currency makes imports cheaper, which tends to push inflation down -- potentially leading consumers to delay purchases, with negative ripple effects across the economy.

A strong euro can also weigh on the eurozone's crucial exporters, particularly Germany, as it makes the cost of companies' goods pricier overseas.

But despite the gains last week, Lagarde pointed out that the euro had been steadily strengthening against the dollar since shortly after Trump took power last year.

And the current exchange rate was "very much in line with the overall average" since the euro was introduced, she stressed.

According to AFP, she also reiterated that the ECB feels it is in a "good place" -- phrasing which has been taken to mean the central bank is happy with the current level of rates.

The euro was barely changed against the dollar after Thursday's meeting at $1.18.

However, Frederik Ducrozet, an economist at Pictet Wealth Management, said some of the central bank's language appeared to signal "the ECB's growing discomfort with regard to the stronger euro".

Lagarde's comments indicate "that further currency appreciation would bring us closer to a pain threshold", he added.

As usual, the ECB chief gave no signal about the central bank's next move on rates.

But, given the movements in currencies and inflation, some analysts are now raising their bets on rate cuts in the second half of the year.

The Bank of England also left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Thursday, at 3.75 percent, while cutting its forecasts for UK growth this year and next.

Lagarde also said the global environment remained "challenging".

"The outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions," she said.

Trump's volatile trade policies in particular have unnerved Europe.

There was another flare-up last month when Trump threatened to hit eight European countries with new tariffs over their opposition to his desire to annex Greenland, but he later climbed down.

Central bankers around the world have been especially worried by Trump's targeting of US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, whom he has criticized for not cutting rates faster.

On Thursday however Lagarde welcomed Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh, a former Fed official, to be the next chief of the US central bank, a move that has broadly reassured markets.

"We go back a long way and I very much welcome (the) announcement of his appointment," said Lagarde.



Iraq in Talks with Gulf States on Pipeline Exports beyond Hormuz

Workers carry out maintenance on a pipeline at a gas separation station in the Zubair oil field near Basra (AP). 
Workers carry out maintenance on a pipeline at a gas separation station in the Zubair oil field near Basra (AP). 
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Iraq in Talks with Gulf States on Pipeline Exports beyond Hormuz

Workers carry out maintenance on a pipeline at a gas separation station in the Zubair oil field near Basra (AP). 
Workers carry out maintenance on a pipeline at a gas separation station in the Zubair oil field near Basra (AP). 

Iraq is in talks with Gulf countries to use their pipeline networks to secure alternative oil export routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz, the state oil marketer SOMO said Thursday.

The move is part of an emergency strategy by the oil ministry to tap regional infrastructure and bypass maritime chokepoints, ensuring Iraqi crude continues to reach global markets while offsetting higher transport costs linked to the current crisis.

Ali Nizar al-Shatari, head of the State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO), said the ministry is prioritizing negotiations to access Gulf pipeline systems extending beyond the Strait of Hormuz and into the Arabian Sea, allowing exports to avoid areas of military tension.

“The goal is to secure stable routes that guarantee efficient flows of Iraqi oil at lower transport costs,” Shatari said, adding that Iraq generated about $2 billion in oil revenues in March, up 28 percent from February.

He said SOMO exported around 18 million barrels of crude from Basra, Kirkuk and the Kurdistan region by using all available outlets, including southern ports that operated until early March and northern routes to Türkiye’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.

As part of efforts to diversify export options, Shatari revealed that the first shipments of fuel oil and Basra Medium crude successfully reached Syrian ports.

He noted that Iraq had signed a deal to export 50,000 barrels per day via this route, describing cooperation with Syria as “very significant,” with storage and security provided to ensure safe delivery to the port of Baniyas.

The route has proven effective and could become a permanent option after the crisis, he added.

Shatari further noted that the oil ministry is close to completing repairs on the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline, which suffered extensive damage in previous years.

Technical teams have inspected the most difficult terrain, with about 200 kilometers (125 miles) still to be assessed in the coming days before full pumping of Kirkuk crude resumes.

In a notable logistical move, Iraq has begun pumping Basra crude northwards for export via Ceyhan.

Flows started at 170,000 barrels per day and are expected to stabilize between 200,000 and 250,000 bpd, helping offset disrupted southern exports and supply energy-hungry markets in Europe and the Americas.

Shatari said Iraq has benefited from rising global prices by selling Kirkuk crude — a medium-grade oil — at strong premiums.

He also confirmed the reactivation of an agreement with the Kurdistan region to reuse the pipeline through the region to Ceyhan, helping lift total exports to 18 million barrels in March.

This came despite a drop in production in Kurdistan fields to about 200,000 bpd due to security threats, he added.

 

 


World Food Prices Rose in March as Iran War Lifted Energy Costs, FAO Says

 A farmer carries harvested rice at a paddy field in Samahani, Aceh province on April 2, 2026. (AFP)
A farmer carries harvested rice at a paddy field in Samahani, Aceh province on April 2, 2026. (AFP)
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World Food Prices Rose in March as Iran War Lifted Energy Costs, FAO Says

 A farmer carries harvested rice at a paddy field in Samahani, Aceh province on April 2, 2026. (AFP)
A farmer carries harvested rice at a paddy field in Samahani, Aceh province on April 2, 2026. (AFP)

The war in the Middle East has pushed food commodity prices higher due to higher energy and fertilizer costs, the UN's food agency said Friday. 

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said its Food Price Index, which measures the monthly changes in international prices of a basket of food commodities, had increased 2.4 percent in March from February. 

It was the second rise in a row, which the agency said was largely due to higher energy prices linked to conflict in the Middle East. 

Within the index, the category of vegetable oil saw the sharpest rise, of 5.1 percent over February, as palm oil prices reached their highest point since the middle of 2022, due to effects from spiking crude oil prices, FAO said. 

However, a "broadly comfortable" supply of cereal has cushioned the damaged from the conflict, FAO said. 

"Price rises since the conflict began have been modest, driven mainly by higher oil prices and cushioned by ample global cereal supplies," said FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero in a statement. 

But he warned that if the conflict goes on beyond 40 days and the high prices on fertilizer continue, "farmers will have to choose: farm the same with fewer inputs, plant less, or switch to less intensive fertilizer crops". 

"Those choices will hit future yields and shape our food supply and commodity prices for the rest of this year and all of the next." 

Disruptions to production and supply chain routes had also introduced "additional uncertainty" into the outlook for wheat and maize, FAO found. 


Turkish Inflation Near 2% Monthly in March, Below Forecasts

A full moon rises behind Galata Tower, in Istanbul, Türkiye, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)
A full moon rises behind Galata Tower, in Istanbul, Türkiye, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)
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Turkish Inflation Near 2% Monthly in March, Below Forecasts

A full moon rises behind Galata Tower, in Istanbul, Türkiye, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)
A full moon rises behind Galata Tower, in Istanbul, Türkiye, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)

Turkish consumer price inflation was 1.94% month-on-month in March, while the annual figure fell to 30.87%, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed ‌on Friday.

In ‌a Reuters ‌poll, ⁠monthly inflation was ⁠forecast to be 2.32%, with the annual rate seen at 31.4%, driven by ⁠a rise in ‌fuel prices ‌and weather-related pressures ‌on food inflation.

In ‌February, consumer prices rose 2.96% month-on-month and 31.53% year-on-year, broadly in ‌line with estimates and reinforcing expectations that ⁠the ⁠disinflation process may be stalling.

The data also showed the domestic producer index rose 2.30% month-on-month in March for an annual increase of 28.08%.