ECB Holds Rates Steady, Offers No Clues on Next Move

The European Central Bank building in Frankfurt (Reuters)
The European Central Bank building in Frankfurt (Reuters)
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ECB Holds Rates Steady, Offers No Clues on Next Move

The European Central Bank building in Frankfurt (Reuters)
The European Central Bank building in Frankfurt (Reuters)

The European Central Bank warned Thursday a stronger euro could push inflation down too far after recent gains in the single currency, but sought to downplay any immediate threat to the eurozone economy.

As expected, the central bank for the 21-nation single-currency area kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at two percent, where it has been since June last year.

ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed the eurozone economy, which has been picking up speed recently, remained "resilient" and officials were confident inflation would settle around the central bank's two-percent target.

But much attention at her press conference focused on the recent gains of the euro, which jumped above the $1.20 threshold last week as the dollar weakened on renewed worries about US economic policy under President Donald Trump.

Combined with news that inflation had dropped below the ECB's target in January, speculation had mounted that the central bank might start mulling if and when to cut rates.

Lagarde made a nod to these concerns, warning that "a stronger euro could bring inflation down beyond current expectations", and noted the issue had been discussed by ECB officials at Thursday's meeting.

A stronger currency makes imports cheaper, which tends to push inflation down -- potentially leading consumers to delay purchases, with negative ripple effects across the economy.

A strong euro can also weigh on the eurozone's crucial exporters, particularly Germany, as it makes the cost of companies' goods pricier overseas.

But despite the gains last week, Lagarde pointed out that the euro had been steadily strengthening against the dollar since shortly after Trump took power last year.

And the current exchange rate was "very much in line with the overall average" since the euro was introduced, she stressed.

According to AFP, she also reiterated that the ECB feels it is in a "good place" -- phrasing which has been taken to mean the central bank is happy with the current level of rates.

The euro was barely changed against the dollar after Thursday's meeting at $1.18.

However, Frederik Ducrozet, an economist at Pictet Wealth Management, said some of the central bank's language appeared to signal "the ECB's growing discomfort with regard to the stronger euro".

Lagarde's comments indicate "that further currency appreciation would bring us closer to a pain threshold", he added.

As usual, the ECB chief gave no signal about the central bank's next move on rates.

But, given the movements in currencies and inflation, some analysts are now raising their bets on rate cuts in the second half of the year.

The Bank of England also left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Thursday, at 3.75 percent, while cutting its forecasts for UK growth this year and next.

Lagarde also said the global environment remained "challenging".

"The outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions," she said.

Trump's volatile trade policies in particular have unnerved Europe.

There was another flare-up last month when Trump threatened to hit eight European countries with new tariffs over their opposition to his desire to annex Greenland, but he later climbed down.

Central bankers around the world have been especially worried by Trump's targeting of US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, whom he has criticized for not cutting rates faster.

On Thursday however Lagarde welcomed Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh, a former Fed official, to be the next chief of the US central bank, a move that has broadly reassured markets.

"We go back a long way and I very much welcome (the) announcement of his appointment," said Lagarde.



Bank of America Pledges $250 Billion for US Infrastructure Financing

Signage is seen at the Bank of America Tower in Manhattan, New York City, New York, US, November 2, 2022. (Reuters)
Signage is seen at the Bank of America Tower in Manhattan, New York City, New York, US, November 2, 2022. (Reuters)
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Bank of America Pledges $250 Billion for US Infrastructure Financing

Signage is seen at the Bank of America Tower in Manhattan, New York City, New York, US, November 2, 2022. (Reuters)
Signage is seen at the Bank of America Tower in Manhattan, New York City, New York, US, November 2, 2022. (Reuters)

Bank of America said on Wednesday it plans to deploy $250 billion by July 2027 to support US digital and infrastructure projects, a move it says will boost the country's economic growth and help create tens of thousands of jobs.

The Wall Street bank said its "Critical Infrastructure Finance Initiative," launched on the heels of the nation's 250th anniversary celebrations, will provide primary market lending, investments, ‌capital markets services, ‌and banking and advisory offerings.

The announcement underscores how ‌major ⁠US financial institutions are seeking ⁠to capitalize on rising demand for AI data centers, critical minerals and energy infrastructure upgrades.

It comes days after Morgan Stanley said it would facilitate roughly $1.5 trillion over the next decade to finance technology and infrastructure projects.

Last year JPMorgan Chase launched a $1.5 trillion plan to facilitate, finance and invest in industries deemed critical to the US national security and economic resilience, including defense, ⁠energy and advanced manufacturing.

BOOSTING GROWTH, CREATING JOBS

Bank of ‌America's financing will target three areas: ‌digital infrastructure, including data centers and computing; energy and power infrastructure, including renewable generation ‌and energy storage; and core infrastructure such as transportation and natural gas.

"Meeting ‌America's growing infrastructure needs requires mobilizing capital at scale across increasingly interconnected sectors," said Karen Fang, global head of infrastructure and sustainable finance at Bank of America.

"Delivering these projects requires integrated financing solutions spanning corporate and project-level capital in both public ‌and private markets."

The $250 billion target will be measured over an 18-month period from January 1, 2026, to July ⁠4, 2027, ⁠the bank said.

"If we all do our job right, we should be deploying more capital," said Fang, who is also co-head of global capital solutions at BofA, when asked about potential deployment of more capital after July 2027.

Many projects require new infrastructure to be built before becoming operational, she said.

In the United States, infrastructure construction loans typically have terms of five to seven years. Once projects are completed and operating, they are often refinanced with longer-term debt lasting 10, 15 or 20 years, Fang said.

She said greater infrastructure investment would help drive economic growth and create long-term jobs.

"Infrastructure spending will lead to economic growth and prosperity," she said.


IEA Cuts 2026 Oil Demand Forecast Again as Hormuz Remains Shut

Boats and a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, August 3, 2026. (Reuters)
Boats and a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, August 3, 2026. (Reuters)
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IEA Cuts 2026 Oil Demand Forecast Again as Hormuz Remains Shut

Boats and a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, August 3, 2026. (Reuters)
Boats and a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, August 3, 2026. (Reuters)

The International Energy Agency on Wednesday sharply reduced its forecast for global oil demand this year, as supplies remain crimped by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and high prices deter buyers.

Demand is expected to slump by 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d), compared with its forecast slump of one million barrels in its previous monthly report in July.

Crude prices have remained well above levels seen before the US and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February, sparking a war that has seen Iran launch attacks at several Gulf countries.

Tehran also responded by effectively shutting down tanker and cargo traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, through which around one-fifth of global oil supplies usually transit.

"The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and elevated fuel prices continue to weigh on oil consumption," the Paris-based IEA said.

Despite a purported ceasefire and repeated claims that a deal to open the strait was imminent -- what the IEA referred to as "sudden diplomatic pivots" -- only a handful of ships are being let through, leading to volatile pricing on global oil markets.

The IEA said global supplies rose by 2.4 million barrels per day in July, to reach 101.5 mb/d, but that was still 6.3 mb/d lower than a year ago.

But "renewed hostilities and maritime disruptions in July and early August undermined the recovery efforts," the agency said.

It now expects global supply to fall by 4.3 mb/d on average this year, before recovering next year.

On the demand side, the IEA is projecting a return to growth in the fourth quarter of this year.


Oil Rises After Attacks on Ships in Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb

A drone view of drilling rigs in Midland, Texas, US, June 11, 2025. (Reuters)
A drone view of drilling rigs in Midland, Texas, US, June 11, 2025. (Reuters)
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Oil Rises After Attacks on Ships in Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb

A drone view of drilling rigs in Midland, Texas, US, June 11, 2025. (Reuters)
A drone view of drilling rigs in Midland, Texas, US, June 11, 2025. (Reuters)

Oil prices rose on Wednesday after attacks on two ships reinforced worries about disruptions to Middle East supplies, while industry data showing swelling inventories of US crude might keep bulls in check.

Brent futures were up 90 cents, or 1%, at $89.81 a barrel by 0757 GMT, set for their sixth day of gains. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 88 cents, ‌or 1.1%, to $84.08, ‌up for a fifth day. Both contracts earlier ‌rose ⁠more than $1.

The United States ⁠and Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis reported separate attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Tuesday, two crucial export valves for Middle Eastern oil and gas in addition to the Suez Canal.

Iran's top security official said Hormuz would stay closed unless the US accepted Iran's conditions to end the war, including release of its frozen ⁠assets.

Shipping data showed the number of vessels transiting ‌Hormuz fell to a one-week low of ‌eight on Tuesday. Before the war, 125 to 140 vessels passed through the ‌crucial waterway each day.

In Libya, the country's National Oil Corporation ‌said all fires at fuel storage tanks in the Zawiya oil complex were under control.

On the supply front, a Reuters poll showed that US crude oil and fuel inventories were expected to have fallen last week.

However, market sources citing ‌American Petroleum Institute data said US crude inventories rose sharply, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell.

Crude stocks rose ⁠by about 9.1 ⁠million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels and 596,000 barrels, respectively, from the previous week, the sources said.

The crude build far exceeded expectations and, if confirmed by the Energy Information Administration report later on Wednesday, could ease market concerns about supply tightness, Haitong Futures said in a note.

Official numbers from the EIA, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, are due at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT).

For longer-term supply, the EIA expected significant disruptions to Middle East crude supplies to persist through the end of 2027. The EIA said it expects 2026 Brent crude oil prices to average $86.81 a barrel, and WTI to average $80.88.