Gold Drops over 1% as Thin Trading, Profit‑taking Weigh

An Indian woman tries on gold jewelry at a jewelry store in Bangalore (EPA)
An Indian woman tries on gold jewelry at a jewelry store in Bangalore (EPA)
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Gold Drops over 1% as Thin Trading, Profit‑taking Weigh

An Indian woman tries on gold jewelry at a jewelry store in Bangalore (EPA)
An Indian woman tries on gold jewelry at a jewelry store in Bangalore (EPA)

Gold prices dropped on Monday, pressured by thin trading volumes as US and China markets remained shut due to local public holidays, while some traders booked profits after last session's 2.5% jump.

Spot gold fell 1.1% to $4,986.32 per ounce by 0550 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery lost 0.8% to $5,005.60 per ounce.

"Gold has given back some of Friday's post-CPI ‌gains today due to ‌thinner trading conditions and a lack ‌of ⁠fresh upside catalysts," said ⁠Tim Waterer, KCM chief analyst, referring to the US consumer price inflation data. He also pointed to profit-taking on the day.

US markets are closed for the Presidents' Day holiday, while markets in China are closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. The US CPI rose 0.2% in January after an unrevised 0.3% gain in December, ⁠the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said ‌on Friday.

Economists polled by Reuters ‌had forecast the CPI to increase by 0.3%. Federal Reserve Bank of ‌Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that interest rates could ‌go down, but noted that services inflation remained high.

Market participants anticipate the central bank to hold interest rates at its next meeting on March 18. Still, they are pricing in 75 basis points in rate ‌cuts this year, with the first expected in July, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Non-yielding ⁠bullion tends ⁠to do well in low-interest-rate environments. "It will likely require the dollar to resume its downtrend for gold to make a push in the direction of $6,000 before year-end," Waterer said.

On the geopolitical front, the US military is preparing for the possibility of a weeks-long operation against Iran should President Donald Trump authorize an attack, two US officials told Reuters, in what could become a far more serious conflict than previously seen between the countries.

Spot silver lost 2.4% to $75.64 per ounce, after a 3% fall earlier in the session. The white metal rose 3.4% on Friday. Spot platinum slipped 0.8% to $2,045.11 per ounce, while palladium shed 0.7% to $1,673.52.



Saudi Aramco: Oil Refining Has Been Underinvested

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Saudi Aramco: Oil Refining Has Been Underinvested

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The current oil supply crisis shows there is underinvestment in oil refining as demand holds resilient, Saudi state-owned Aramco's vice president of market analysis and sustainability, Musaab Al Mulla, said on Tuesday.

Around 3 ⁠million barrels per ⁠day of refining capacity closed between 2020 and 2023, Al Mulla said at the S&P Global Energy Middle East ⁠Petroleum and Gas Conference in London.

"Now we realize if you have those refineries you may have definitely mitigated the impacts of the crisis today," he said.

The war in Iran, attacks on energy infrastructure and ⁠Iran's effective ⁠closure of the Strait of Hormuz followed by a US naval blockade, have removed around 14 million bpd of oil supply from Middle East producers to the global market.


OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecasts Over Mideast War Fallout

A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
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OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecasts Over Mideast War Fallout

A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)

The war in the Middle East has dented economic growth prospects worldwide, with a more severe shock likely if no effective ceasefire is agreed before 2027, the OECD warned Wednesday.

Global economic growth is now forecast to slip to 2.8 percent for 2026 if Gulf exports of oil and gas return to pre-conflict levels in the third quarter, the group of 38 industrialized countries said in its quarterly update.

Previously the OECD had forecast full-year global growth of 2.9 percent.

But if the Middle East war continues into next year, however, global growth could slow to 2.1 percent, the OECD said -- well below the average annual growth of 3.4 percent seen from 2013 to 2019, before the Covid pandemic.

"The longer the disruptions last, the larger the economic and social costs become," the group's chief economist Stefano Scarpetta said in the report.

Many countries would risk falling into recession, he noted, and a drop in investment spending -- "including in energy-intensive AI" -- would likely push up unemployment.

Sustained high prices for energy as well as fertilizer and other key products from hydrocarbon production in the Gulf would weigh especially hard on developing countries that have "higher shares of energy and food in household consumption".

Even if the war sparked by US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February ends in the coming weeks, the OECD forecast global inflation rising to 4.0 percent this year from 3.4 percent in 2025.

In this "time-limited disruption scenario", the group expects US growth to slow to 2.0 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2027, after growing 2.1 percent last year.

In the eurozone, where many countries are highly dependent on energy imports, GDP growth will slump to 0.8 percent this year after 1.4 percent last year, assuming a Mideast ceasefire is secured in the coming weeks.


Saudi Non-oil Private Sector Activity Hits 3-month High in May

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
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Saudi Non-oil Private Sector Activity Hits 3-month High in May

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector expanded at the fastest pace in three months in May as domestic demand improved and supply chains stabilized, while business optimism remained subdued amid conflict in the region, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 52.8 in May from 51.5 in April. The 50 mark separates growth from contraction, Reuters reported.

Output accelerated at the ⁠fastest pace in ⁠three months after March's downturn following the start of the Iran war, as firms cited normalizing working conditions, revived contracts and stronger local demand.

Export sales fell for a third straight month, hit by shipping disruption, higher freight and fuel costs, geopolitical tensions and stronger competition. The pace of decline eased only modestly from April's survey-record contraction.

However, supply chains improved, with suppliers' delivery times shortening for the first time in three months as ⁠firms relied ⁠more on local vendors. Backlogs of work rose for an 11th consecutive month, albeit moderately.

“Overall, the latest PMI reading supports the expectation that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy will continue its upward trend during the remainder of 2026," said Naif Al-Ghaith, Riyad Bank's chief economist.