Oil Hovers Near Six-month High with Nuclear Talks and US Tariffs in Focus

Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
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Oil Hovers Near Six-month High with Nuclear Talks and US Tariffs in Focus

Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo

Oil prices steadied near a six-month high on Monday as the US and Iran prepared for a third round of nuclear talks while increased economic uncertainty was also in focus after the latest US tariff upheaval.

Brent crude futures were up 9 cents at $71.85 a barrel by 1308 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 15 cents to $66.63, Reuters reported.

Growing concern over potential military conflict between the US and Iran pushed Brent prices up more than 5% last week to their highest since July 2025 at $72.34.

"With the next, and possibly last, round of the Iranian nuclear talks not until Thursday, focus is on the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down import tariffs and the subsequent reaction from the government," said PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga.

The US Customs and Border Protection agency said it would halt collections of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act at 12:01 a.m. EST (0501 GMT) on Tuesday.

However, Trump said on Saturday that he would raise a temporary tariff from 10% to 15% on US imports from all countries, the maximum allowed under the law, after the US Supreme Court struck down his previous tariff program.

"This morning’s weakness is a defensive move, and needless to say, with the uncertainty surrounding a US military intervention in Iran, the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and now the US Supreme Court’s decision, oil price direction is not (clear), but volatility is guaranteed," PVM's Varga said.

Iran has indicated it is prepared to make concessions on its nuclear program in return for the lifting of sanctions and recognition of its right to enrich uranium, a senior Iranian official told Reuters ahead of Thursday's third round of nuclear talks between the two nations.

While prices on paper had moved higher, softer prompt spreads and weaker physical differentials pointed to pricing being based on geopolitical concerns rather than an actual lack of oil in the market, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note.



US Extends Sanctions Waiver on Russian at-Sea Oil by 30 Days

 US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent arrives at meeting of G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in preparation for the summit of heads of State and government to be held in June 2026 in Evian, in Paris on May 18, 2026. (AFP)
US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent arrives at meeting of G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in preparation for the summit of heads of State and government to be held in June 2026 in Evian, in Paris on May 18, 2026. (AFP)
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US Extends Sanctions Waiver on Russian at-Sea Oil by 30 Days

 US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent arrives at meeting of G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in preparation for the summit of heads of State and government to be held in June 2026 in Evian, in Paris on May 18, 2026. (AFP)
US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent arrives at meeting of G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in preparation for the summit of heads of State and government to be held in June 2026 in Evian, in Paris on May 18, 2026. (AFP)

The US Treasury secretary on Monday said Washington was extending by 30 days its sanctions waiver for Russian oil cargoes already at sea, as global energy prices continue to surge due to the Iran war.

The latest "temporary 30-day general license" will "provide the most vulnerable nations with the ability to temporarily access Russian oil currently stranded at sea," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a social media post.

Monday's announcement is the second time US authorities have extended the temporary measure, which is meant to address oil supply shortages sparked by the US-Israel war on Iran.

Iran's retaliatory action has targeted US regional allies and virtually blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies normally pass.

The previous waiver for Russian at-sea oil expired on May 16.

Global oil prices have spiked since the start of the war, with US consumers feeling the pinch of gasoline costs that are more than 50 percent higher than when the war began.

The United States first issued a sanctions waiver on Russian oil cargoes that were at sea in March.

The moves have been criticized by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose country has been locked in war with Russia since its 2022 invasion.

Bessent said the extension would "provide additional flexibility" and "will help stabilize the physical crude market and ensure oil reaches the most energy-vulnerable countries.


IEA Chief Warns Commercial Oil Inventories Are Depleting Rapidly, Only Weeks Left

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Secretary-General Mathias Cormann and International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol talk on the day of a G7 finance ministers' and central bank governors' meeting in Paris, France, May 18, 2026. (Reuters)
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Secretary-General Mathias Cormann and International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol talk on the day of a G7 finance ministers' and central bank governors' meeting in Paris, France, May 18, 2026. (Reuters)
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IEA Chief Warns Commercial Oil Inventories Are Depleting Rapidly, Only Weeks Left

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Secretary-General Mathias Cormann and International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol talk on the day of a G7 finance ministers' and central bank governors' meeting in Paris, France, May 18, 2026. (Reuters)
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Secretary-General Mathias Cormann and International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol talk on the day of a G7 finance ministers' and central bank governors' meeting in Paris, France, May 18, 2026. (Reuters)

Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, said on Monday that commercial oil inventories were depleting rapidly with only a few weeks' worth left due to the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.

Birol, who is participating in the Group of Seven finance leaders meeting in Paris, told reporters that the release of strategic oil reserves had added 2.5 million barrels of oil per day to the market, but said these reserves "are ‌not endless".

The ‌onset of the spring planting and summer ‌travel ⁠seasons in the northern ⁠hemisphere will drain inventories more quickly as demand for diesel, fertilizer, jet fuel and gasoline increases, Birol added.

Asked about his comments in the G7 meeting, he said he described "a perception gap in the markets between the physical markets and the financial markets" for oil.

Birol said that before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran at ⁠the end of February, there was a major ‌surplus in the oil markets, and ‌commercial inventories were very high. But the situation has rapidly shifted due to ‌the war.

He said commercial inventories would last "several weeks, but we ‌should be aware of the fact that it is declining rapidly".

Last week, the IEA said global oil supply will fall short of total demand this year as the Iran conflict wreaks havoc on Middle East oil ‌production, and inventories were being drained at an unprecedented pace. The IEA had previously forecast a surplus this ⁠year.

Global observed ⁠oil inventories fell at a record pace in March and April, dropping by 246 million barrels, the IEA said in its latest monthly oil market report.

The 32-member IEA coordinated the largest-ever release of stocks from strategic reserves in March, agreeing to withdraw 400 million barrels in a bid to calm markets.

Around 164 million barrels had been released by May 8, it said.

Overall global oil supply will fall by around 3.9 million barrels per day across 2026 due to the war, the agency said, slashing its previous forecast, which had projected a 1.5 million bpd drop.


Operating Profits Drive Saudi Petrochemical Firms to Record 111% Jump in Earnings

SABIC’s manufacturing facility in Jubail (company website) 
SABIC’s manufacturing facility in Jubail (company website) 
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Operating Profits Drive Saudi Petrochemical Firms to Record 111% Jump in Earnings

SABIC’s manufacturing facility in Jubail (company website) 
SABIC’s manufacturing facility in Jubail (company website) 

Saudi-listed petrochemical companies posted a sharp improvement in financial performance during the first quarter of 2026, driven by a strong recovery in operating efficiency that pushed the sector’s net profits up 111.75 percent to more than SAR374.36 million ($92.57 million).

The turnaround reflected the success of major companies in adapting to global market changes, with the sector’s operating profits surging nearly fivefold to $548.97 million.

The strong momentum was fueled by higher average selling prices for most products, lower operating and administrative expenses, improved investment returns and a decline in non-recurring costs that had weighed on last year’s results.

Among the nine petrochemical companies listed on the Saudi stock exchange, Tadawul, six posted net profits: SABIC, SABIC Agri-Nutrients, Yanbu National Petrochemical Co. (Yansab), Saudi Industrial Investment Group (SIIG), Advanced Petrochemical Co. and Alujain Corp.

Three companies posted losses: Sahara International Petrochemical Co. (Sipchem), National Industrialization Co. (Tasnee) and Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co.

According to filings on Tadawul, SABIC Agri-Nutrients recorded the highest profits in the sector, with first-quarter earnings rising 24.57 percent to SAR1.23 billion from SAR985 million a year earlier. The company attributed the increase to higher average selling prices for most of its products.

SIIG posted the second-highest profits, reporting SAR252 million in first-quarter earnings compared with SAR18 million in the same period last year, a jump of 1,300 percent.

The company said profits rose because of a significant increase in its share of earnings from jointly managed companies, supported by exceptional improvements in product selling prices and lower depreciation expenses after reassessing the useful life of fixed assets.

Advanced Petrochemical ranked third among profitable companies despite a 58.33 percent decline in earnings, posting a net profit of SAR30 million compared with SAR72 million a year earlier.

The company attributed the drop to depreciation expenses, fixed costs and financing expenses linked to the start of operations at Advanced Polyolefins Industry Co.

The sector’s total operating profits rose nearly fivefold in the first quarter, climbing 492 percent to SAR2.06 billion from SAR347.56 million during the same period in 2025.

SABIC led the sector in operating profits, recording SAR1.4 billion in the first quarter, up more than 383 percent.

SABIC Agri-Nutrients came second with operating profits of SAR1.17 billion, an increase of 36.29 percent, while SIIG ranked third with SAR252 million in operating profit, marking a rise of 1,160 percent.

Financial markets analyst and member of the Saudi Economic Association Sulaiman Al-Humaid Al-Khalidi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the petrochemical sector saw a notable turnaround in the first quarter as major firms regained a significant portion of profitability momentum, supported by better product prices, improved operating efficiency and easing exceptional pressures that had weighed on results last year.

He noted that the sharp rise in earnings was driven by several factors, notably higher average selling prices for petrochemical products and fertilizers, especially at SABIC Agri-Nutrients, which benefited from strong global demand and stable fertilizer markets.

Lower operating expenses also played a major role in boosting results, particularly at SABIC, which returned to profitability after a decline in non-recurring costs and lower administrative and research expenses.

Al-Khalidi added that SIIG benefited from exceptional product pricing, stronger contributions from joint ventures and lower depreciation expenses, allowing it to post one of the sector’s strongest profit jumps.

At the same time, companies such as Saudi Kayan and Tasnee continued to face challenges despite reducing losses, reflecting a gradual improvement in operating conditions as some input costs declined and factories resumed operations after maintenance and expansion work.

Al-Khalidi said the sector appeared headed toward greater stability compared with 2024 and 2025, supported by improving global industrial demand, recovering economic activity in major markets and continuing Saudi industrial and economic transformation projects.

He added that any further rise in oil and energy prices would support profit margins for petrochemical companies as firms focus on improving operating efficiency, reducing costs and expanding higher value-added products.

He continued that the sector appeared to be entering a phase of “smart gradual recovery” rather than a temporary boom, potentially allowing companies to achieve more balanced and sustainable financial results in coming quarters.

Selective improvement

Mohamed Hamdy Omar, chief executive of G World, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the sector’s financial performance improved selectively rather than uniformly.

He said companies tied to strong pricing conditions or better operating factors posted stronger results, while firms burdened by high fixed costs or affected by maintenance and expansion projects remained under pressure.

He pointed to SABIC Agri-Nutrients benefiting from higher average selling prices despite lower sales volumes and weaker contributions from joint projects, indicating pricing had a greater impact on profitability than volumes.

Omar added that SIIG’s sharp profit increase was driven by stronger earnings contributions from jointly managed companies and lower depreciation expenses following the reassessment of asset lifespans.

He said SABIC’s return to profitability was largely driven by lower non-recurring expenses that had burdened the comparison period in 2025, along with lower general and research expenses.

Omar further noted that profit growth across the sector was mainly driven by three factors: improved selling prices for some products, especially fertilizers; stronger operating and investment performance at some companies; and lower non-recurring costs, which particularly benefited SABIC.

Loss-making companies, meanwhile, remained under pressure from lower sales volumes, weaker prices, higher financing expenses and maintenance and expansion costs, as seen at Tasnee and Saudi Kayan, he said.

Omar expected the petrochemical sector to remain highly sensitive in coming quarters to global price movements in petrochemicals, fertilizers and energy markets.

“Volatility between companies may continue even if the overall trend remains positive,” he said, adding that stronger firms with pricing power and operating efficiency, such as SABIC Agri-Nutrients, would be best positioned to maintain healthy margins if market conditions remain supportive.

Omar added that SABIC would remain a key factor in shaping the sector’s direction, though sustaining profitability would depend more on reducing non-recurring items and improving the global industrial cycle than on any single factor.

“The sector is entering a phase of improving operating quality rather than merely a rapid cyclical recovery,” he said, adding that the sustainability of the recovery would depend on prices, global demand and disciplined capital and operating spending.