Oil Hovers Near Six-month High with Nuclear Talks and US Tariffs in Focus

Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
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Oil Hovers Near Six-month High with Nuclear Talks and US Tariffs in Focus

Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo

Oil prices steadied near a six-month high on Monday as the US and Iran prepared for a third round of nuclear talks while increased economic uncertainty was also in focus after the latest US tariff upheaval.

Brent crude futures were up 9 cents at $71.85 a barrel by 1308 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 15 cents to $66.63, Reuters reported.

Growing concern over potential military conflict between the US and Iran pushed Brent prices up more than 5% last week to their highest since July 2025 at $72.34.

"With the next, and possibly last, round of the Iranian nuclear talks not until Thursday, focus is on the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down import tariffs and the subsequent reaction from the government," said PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga.

The US Customs and Border Protection agency said it would halt collections of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act at 12:01 a.m. EST (0501 GMT) on Tuesday.

However, Trump said on Saturday that he would raise a temporary tariff from 10% to 15% on US imports from all countries, the maximum allowed under the law, after the US Supreme Court struck down his previous tariff program.

"This morning’s weakness is a defensive move, and needless to say, with the uncertainty surrounding a US military intervention in Iran, the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and now the US Supreme Court’s decision, oil price direction is not (clear), but volatility is guaranteed," PVM's Varga said.

Iran has indicated it is prepared to make concessions on its nuclear program in return for the lifting of sanctions and recognition of its right to enrich uranium, a senior Iranian official told Reuters ahead of Thursday's third round of nuclear talks between the two nations.

While prices on paper had moved higher, softer prompt spreads and weaker physical differentials pointed to pricing being based on geopolitical concerns rather than an actual lack of oil in the market, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note.



IMF Says More Work Needed on Lebanon Reforms

A man walks past Lebanon's Central Bank headquarters in Beirut on November 10, 2026. (AFP)
A man walks past Lebanon's Central Bank headquarters in Beirut on November 10, 2026. (AFP)
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IMF Says More Work Needed on Lebanon Reforms

A man walks past Lebanon's Central Bank headquarters in Beirut on November 10, 2026. (AFP)
A man walks past Lebanon's Central Bank headquarters in Beirut on November 10, 2026. (AFP)

The International Monetary Fund said on Friday that more work was needed to reach an agreement on restructuring Lebanon's banking sector, one of the steps towards unlocking billions of dollars in financial assistance.

An IMF staff-level agreement reached in April 2022 laid out conditions to unlock assistance, including a law on the distribution of losses in the banking sector, known as the financial gap law, which parliament has still not voted on.

In a statement at the end of meetings that began on Tuesday, the IMF said "there was progress in further clarifying the approaches under consideration by the Banque du Liban (BdL) and the Government regarding banking sector reform, the draft financial regulation law and the recovery of deposits, and aligning them with international standards".

It however noted that "further work is needed to reach an agreement on a strategy for an effective and durable restructuring of Lebanon's banking sector, leading to a sound and resilient system".

The cabinet submitted a draft of the law to parliament in 2025, but the text is contested by the banking sector and political parties, preventing a vote.

Differences over estimates of losses and their distribution have stalled negotiations with the IMF.

In 2022, the government estimated losses resulting from the 2019 financial crisis at around $70 billion, a figure believed to have increased over the last seven years during which the crisis has remained unresolved.

Lebanese Finance Minister Yassin Jaber said during a news conference that he hoped to "achieve progress that would allow us to reach an agreement on a program with the IMF and sign it during the first quarter of next year, and by its end at the latest".

Lebanon's economic crisis, which the World Bank has ranked among the worst since 1850, has deprived depositors of access to all of their funds, destroyed confidence in the banking sector and led to greater reliance on cash liquidity in various economic and commercial activities.


Silver Demand Seen Down 5% This Year Due to Weaker Jewellery Purchases

Silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. (Reuters)
Silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. (Reuters)
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Silver Demand Seen Down 5% This Year Due to Weaker Jewellery Purchases

Silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. (Reuters)
Silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. (Reuters)

Silver demand is expected to fall by 5% in 2026 due to weaker jewellery demand and lower consumption in solar cells, where high prices have accelerated substitution, research showed on Friday.

Research done by consultancy Metals Focus for the Silver Institute puts demand at 1.08 billion troy ounces this year.

Silver, used in jewellery, electronics, electric vehicles and solar panels as well as for investment, is ‌down 59% ‌to $50 an ounce since retail buying drove prices ‌to ⁠a record high ⁠of $121.6 in January.

The base for that rally was created in 2025, when silver surged 147%, as massive inflows of the metal to US inventories due to tariff uncertainty and into silver-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs) tightened liquidity in the London market.

This year, expectations for higher interest rates, a stronger dollar and higher bond yields have weighed on investment ⁠sentiment.

Silver released through ETP selling, outflows from stocks ‌in the US and a smaller ‌market deficit improved liquidity in the physical market, the Silver Institute and ‌consultancy Metals Focus said on Friday.

Metals Focus sees net ETP ‌outflows of 45 million ounces this year after 278 million ounces of inflows in 2025.

As of early November, ETP holdings stood at 1.25 billion ounces.

Industrial demand is expected to fall by 3% in 2026 as installations ‌in photovoltaics have fallen short of expectations, particularly in China, while January's record silver prices accelerated ⁠substitution.

Meanwhile, demand ⁠for jewellery and silverware is forecast to decline by 22% and 17%, respectively, as higher prices and weaker rural spending in India encouraged purchases of smaller, lighter products.

Demand in China and the US is also subdued. Strong retail investment in late 2025 and early 2026 gave way to far more subdued buying from March as silver prices fell, Metals Focus said.

It expects global bar and coin demand to fall 2% this year, with US retail investment hitting its lowest level since 2010.


Gold Rises on Bargain Hunting but Heads for Weekly Decline

Gold necklaces are on display inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Mumbai, India April 18, 2018. (Reuters)
Gold necklaces are on display inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Mumbai, India April 18, 2018. (Reuters)
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Gold Rises on Bargain Hunting but Heads for Weekly Decline

Gold necklaces are on display inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Mumbai, India April 18, 2018. (Reuters)
Gold necklaces are on display inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Mumbai, India April 18, 2018. (Reuters)

Gold rose on Friday as bargain hunting emerged after prices hit a more than one-year low in the previous session, while market focus shifted to upcoming US inflation data.

Spot gold climbed 1% to $3,915.31 per ounce by 0322 GMT but was down 3.5% so far this week. US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.9% to $3,919.60.

"Today's move is ‌more of a ‌positioning adjustment, given that several intraday short-term ‌momentum ⁠indicators had kind ⁠of hit an extreme oversold level after yesterday's dramatic fall," said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

"A short-term driver that could be bullish for gold will be a sudden turn of the US Treasury yield, that would potentially slow down the US dollar."

Spot gold prices hit their lowest level since ⁠October 2025 on Thursday as oil prices climbed ‌on fading hopes for peace ‌in the Middle East, spurring fears of higher inflation and elevated interest ‌rates.

Markets see an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point US ‌rate hike in December, while the probability of a larger 50-basis-point move is priced at 11%, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Although gold is typically seen as an inflation hedge, higher interest rates increase the ‌opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, reducing its appeal to investors.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York ⁠President John ⁠Williams said on Thursday more rate hikes are likely as the US central bank seeks to lower high levels of inflation in an otherwise healthy economy.

Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, but remained at a level consistent with a stable labor market.

Market participants now await the US Producer Price Index data due at 1330 GMT.

Among other metals, spot silver rose 1% to $50.49 per ounce and palladium climbed 2.1% to $1,014.50, but both were headed for weekly declines.

Spot platinum gained 1.3% to $1,538.22 and was on track for a modest weekly gain.