Energy Prices Soar, Stock Markets Slide on Iran War Fallout

Gas prices surged and stocks sank after US and Israeli forces began striking Iran at the weekend © - / US NAVY/US CENTRAL COMMAND/AFP
Gas prices surged and stocks sank after US and Israeli forces began striking Iran at the weekend © - / US NAVY/US CENTRAL COMMAND/AFP
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Energy Prices Soar, Stock Markets Slide on Iran War Fallout

Gas prices surged and stocks sank after US and Israeli forces began striking Iran at the weekend © - / US NAVY/US CENTRAL COMMAND/AFP
Gas prices surged and stocks sank after US and Israeli forces began striking Iran at the weekend © - / US NAVY/US CENTRAL COMMAND/AFP

Oil and gas prices soared, stock markets slid and the dollar firmed on Monday as the widening Iran war shook financial markets across the globe.

European natural gas prices rocketed more than 50 percent after Qatar's state-run energy firm said it had halted liquefied natural gas production following Iranian attacks on facilities at two of its main gas processing bases.

Meanwhile world crude futures surged nearly nine percent on fears of disruption to supplies.

Asian and European stock markets retreated as much as over two percent as investors exited trades in favour of the dollar and gold, seen as safer bets in times of economic unrest, according to AFP.

The greenback jumped nearly one percent against the British pound before paring gains, while the precious metal rose 3.1 percent to $5,410.70 an ounce.

There were sizeable gains to share prices of energy majors and defence companies, with BAE Systems jumping six percent in London.

"Investors are scuttling towards safe havens, seeking shelter as conflict widens in the Middle East," noted Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club.

After US and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend, Israel bombarded Lebanon on Monday following rocket fire from Hezbollah.

Several American warplanes crashed in Kuwait -- from friendly fire -- and Iran lashed out against the region with missiles as the war expanded.

The bombings have also seen the vital Strait of Hormuz -- through which around 20 percent of global seaborne oil passes -- effectively shut and several ships attacked.

Airline share prices took a battering as carriers were forced to cancel flights -- with Qantas and Singapore Airlines each losing around five percent.

British Airways owner IAG lost 5.8 percent Air France-KLM fell 8.3 percent.

However, energy firms rallied, with Australia's Woodside Energy jumping more than six percent, and PetroChina adding almost four percent.

Shell rose nearly three percent and TotalEnergies more than four percent.

"If higher oil prices persist, it raises the risk of stickier headline inflation," wrote Saxo Markets' Charu Chanana.

This could prove troublesome for US President Donald Trump, who has promised his electorate low prices, as the United States approaches mid-term elections in November.

Rising energy prices, increased shipping costs and loss of revenue for air transport could have "a harmful effect on growth", said economist Eric Dor from the IESEG School of Management in Paris.

"If it's a matter of three days, it's not serious. But if it's over a longer period, then it will have an additional recessionary effect," he told AFP.

In theory, oil-importing countries have reserves, with OECD members required to maintain 90 days' worth of stocks, but prices above $100 cannot be ruled out according to analysts.

If the disruption at Hormuz continues, "no matter how much spare capacity, (it) is not going to fill that gap. That gap is just too big," said Amena Bakr, head of Middle East and OPEC+ research at analysts Kpler.

Key members of the OPEC+ oil cartel on Sunday announced a greater-than-expected increase to production quotas.



EU, China to Hold Beijing Talks to Avert Trade War

Brussels toughened its stance towards Beijing to defend businesses from what it believes is unfair competition in critical sectors including cars. CN-STR/AFP/File
Brussels toughened its stance towards Beijing to defend businesses from what it believes is unfair competition in critical sectors including cars. CN-STR/AFP/File
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EU, China to Hold Beijing Talks to Avert Trade War

Brussels toughened its stance towards Beijing to defend businesses from what it believes is unfair competition in critical sectors including cars. CN-STR/AFP/File
Brussels toughened its stance towards Beijing to defend businesses from what it believes is unfair competition in critical sectors including cars. CN-STR/AFP/File

EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic will head to Beijing on Thursday for two days of make-or-break meetings with Chinese officials to try to stave off a trade war.

The European Union has toughened its stance towards Beijing to defend businesses against what it believes is unfair competition in critical sectors including cars.

Increasingly European leaders and observers warn of a "China Shock 2.0", used to describe Chinese firms' shift into more high-tech manufacturing, which is threatening many traditional EU industries.

The first shock in the early 2000s saw a glut of cheap, more low-tech exports from China hurt manufacturers not just in Europe but around the world.

EU and Chinese officials have been locked in talks since June to address Brussels' concerns about the current trade imbalance.

The EU is simultaneously preparing to boost its trade defense toolbox -- but Beijing has threatened to retaliate against any moves targeting China.

Sefcovic raised the stakes for this week's meetings in summer when he warned the EU expected "tangible results by October" from the process.

But experts cautioned against expecting too much from this week's meetings.

"There may be a few crumbs, but I would not expect any kind of major breakthrough," Penny Naas, director of the Brussels office of German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) think tank, said.

There could be "agreements on some specific issues, rather than any broad settlement of the trade relationship", said Zhu Tian, professor of economics at the China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) in Shanghai.

It is clear Brussels is aware the talks won't solve all of its woes, with the commission working in parallel on new tools to protect European industries, which are expected to be presented to leaders in December.

- 'Worrying trends' -

What the EU wants is to cut its trade deficit with China.

It hit around 360 billion euros in 2025, meaning the EU imported far more from the Asian nation than it exported there. China has a lower figure of around $292 billion but expects the deficit to rise further this year.

The EU's trade enforcement chief, Denis Redonnet, said sectors facing "sustained and abnormal" import increases included machinery, textiles, basic metals and chemicals.

There were "potentially worrying trends for almost a quarter of all imports into the EU at the moment", driven mainly by Chinese goods, Redonnet told the European Parliament last week.

Sefcovic said the EU wanted to deliver on three main objectives including tackling export surges from China to the bloc's market, especially in critical sectors, and increasing exports from Europe to China.

Brussels also wanted "a system of export licensing for rare earths and other products" after major producer China introduced restrictions on them last year.

Europe hopes to manage Chinese exports through voluntary limits, for example on hybrid cars shipped to the bloc, but an EU official said Brussels wants to include other products. Beijing has said it firmly opposes import quotas.

China has limited room for maneuver because of weak domestic demand, which means the government relies on exports to sustain growth levels.

- Diversifying suppliers -

Since the bloc does not expect significant changes by China, the EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it was also steaming ahead with preparing new tools.

Several EU nations including France have pushed for a "European equivalent of Section 301" -- the trade tool US President Donald Trump used to probe foreign practices Washington deems discriminatory, and retaliate with tariffs.

Responding to reports last week about such a tool, Beijing warned it would "respond resolutely" to "discriminatory restrictive measures".

The EU knows they are not empty threats: China previously retaliated against the bloc's trade defense moves with duties on European cognac, and conducted anti-dumping probes into pork and dairy products.

Brussels is also developing a tool that would support businesses, through funding, to diversify their suppliers in critical sectors.

It is still unclear, however, how far the EU as a whole would be willing to go against China -- for fear of provoking Beijing.

Germany, which is especially exposed since its biggest trading partner is China, has been especially cautious -- though Berlin's stance has hardened as it worries Chinese overcapacities are hurting its export-led economy.

Europe has "the ability to do something more aggressive to stem this China 2.0 shock", GMF's Naas said. "The question is, will they?"


Saudi Non-Oil Sector Grows at Seven-Month High in September

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
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Saudi Non-Oil Sector Grows at Seven-Month High in September

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)

Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector recorded significant acceleration in September 2026, as the Riyad Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), seasonally and economically adjusted and compiled by S&P Global, rose to 55.3 percent, up from 53.8 percent in August. This increase reflects the highest level for business conditions since February, surpassing the 50 percent neutral mark that separates growth from contraction.

Record Rise in New Orders

Report data showed that the sector's growth was primarily supported by a sharp rebound in new orders, which recorded their fastest rate of increase since last February, amid improving market conditions, increased domestic spending, and customer demand.

In response to this influx of orders, companies bolstered their operational and investment capacities, driving employment activity to accelerate to its highest level in seven months. Recruitment efforts specifically targeted supporting technical staff and expanding sales teams. Purchasing activity also saw robust growth, with purchases of production inputs recording their highest increase in seven months.

Decline in Foreign Sales

Despite the domestic rebound, the report indicated continued weakness in foreign demand, with new orders from international clients declining for the seventh consecutive month due to supply chain disruptions and regional geopolitical tensions.

Supply chain data also showed only a slight improvement in supplier delivery times, and at the slowest pace in five months. These delays and rising costs contributed to a slowdown in production growth to its lowest level in five months, coupled with an increase in backlogs for the first time since May.

Cost Pressures and Rising Selling Prices

Companies reported a continued sharp increase in input prices due to elevated material and transportation costs. To protect profit margins, establishments raised selling prices to customers at a high rate, marking the second fastest increase in over six years.

Regarding the outlook, the Future Output Index showed a decline in business optimism for the coming year to its lowest level since March, amid the prevailing uncertainty caused by regional disruptions and supply chains.

Commenting on these results, Dr. Naif Alghaith, Chief Economist at Riyad Bank, affirmed that September's results are consistent with the overall picture of the Saudi economy; where domestic consumption, investment activity, government projects, in addition to Public Investment Fund projects, and credit availability, continue to provide fundamental support for non-oil activity.

Alghaith added: “The increase in unfinished work, coinciding with the acceleration in employment and purchasing to a seven-month high, indicates that companies are building their operational capacities to meet sustained demand and expand their production capabilities, rather than merely offering temporary responses.”


Egypt Non-oil Downturn Deepens in September as Orders Slump

Part of the New Administrative Capital east of Cairo (New Capital Company)
Part of the New Administrative Capital east of Cairo (New Capital Company)
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Egypt Non-oil Downturn Deepens in September as Orders Slump

Part of the New Administrative Capital east of Cairo (New Capital Company)
Part of the New Administrative Capital east of Cairo (New Capital Company)

Egypt's non-oil ‌private sector contracted at a faster pace in September as output and new orders fell sharply amid inflation and geopolitical disruptions, a business survey showed on Monday, Reuters reported.

* The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Egypt Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 47.2 in September from 49.6 in August, a survey by ‌S&P Global ‌showed. The 50-mark separates growth ‌from ⁠contraction.

* Output and ⁠new business both declined at faster rates in September. Firms cited weaker market conditions, ongoing geopolitical disruptions and strong inflationary pressures.

* Export sales also fell, though at a ⁠marginal pace that was the ‌joint-slowest in ‌the current seven-month decline.

* Employment rose for ‌a second straight month, the ‌first back-to-back increase in staffing in more than a year, although the pace slowed from August and remained slight.

* Output ‌price inflation eased slightly from August but remained steep and ⁠well ⁠above the historical trend, while input cost inflation rose to a three-month high.

* The survey said firms remained optimistic that output would rise over the coming 12 months.

* "All this suggests that Egyptian firms remain hopeful about the future in spite of the economic challenges they face," said David Owen, Principal Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.