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Oil Falls as Trump Predicts Middle East De-escalation

Wells at the San Ardo Oil Field in San Ardo, Calif., Monday, March 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Nic Coury)
Wells at the San Ardo Oil Field in San Ardo, Calif., Monday, March 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Nic Coury)
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Oil Falls as Trump Predicts Middle East De-escalation

Wells at the San Ardo Oil Field in San Ardo, Calif., Monday, March 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Nic Coury)
Wells at the San Ardo Oil Field in San Ardo, Calif., Monday, March 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Nic Coury)

Oil prices fell on Tuesday after hitting a more than three-year high in the previous session as US President Donald Trump predicted the war in the Middle East could end soon, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to global oil supplies.

Brent futures fell $6.28, or 6.3%, to $92.68 a barrel at 0715 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $6.19, or 6.5%, to $88.58 a barrel, reported Reuters.

Both contracts fell as much as 11% earlier before paring some losses. Oil surged past $100 a barrel on Monday to the highest since mid-2022, as ‌supply cuts ‌by Saudi Arabia and other producers during the expanding US-Israeli war ‌on ⁠Iran stoked fears ⁠of major disruptions to global supplies.

Prices later retreated after Russian President Vladimir Putin held a call with Trump and shared proposals aimed at a quick settlement to the war, according to a Kremlin aide, easing concerns about supply.

Trump said on Monday in a CBS News interview that he thought the war against Iran was "very complete" and Washington was "very far ahead" of his initial four- to five-week estimated time frame.

"Clearly Trump's comments about a short-lived war have calmed ⁠markets. While there was an overreaction to the upside yesterday, we ‌think there is an overreaction to the downside today," ‌said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, adding that the market was ‌underappreciating risks at these levels for Brent.

"Murban and Dubai grades are still well above $100 ‌per barrel, so practically nothing much has changed in terms of ground realities," he added, referring to benchmark Middle Eastern oil grades.

In response to Trump, Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said they would "determine the end of the war," and Tehran would not allow "one liter of oil" to be exported ‌from the region if US and Israeli attacks continued, state media reported on Tuesday, citing the IRGC's spokesperson.

Prices, however, remain under ⁠pressure as Trump ⁠considers easing oil sanctions on Russia and releasing emergency crude stockpiles as part of a package of options aimed at curbing spiking global oil prices, according to multiple sources.

"Discussions around easing sanctions on Russian oil, comments from Donald Trump hinting that the conflict could eventually de-escalate, and the possibility of G7 countries tapping strategic oil reserves all pointed to the same message - that oil barrels will somehow continue to reach the market," Priyanka Sachdeva, a Phillip Nova analyst, said in a note on Tuesday.

"Once traders sensed that supply routes could still be maintained, the initial 'panic premium' that had pushed prices above the $100 mark yesterday started to fade, and oil prices quickly pulled back."

G7 nations had said on Monday they were prepared to implement "necessary measures" in response to surging global oil prices but stopped short of committing to the release of emergency reserves.

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Gold Set for Weekly Drop as Oil Price Surge Weighs on Rate-cut Hopes

FILE PHOTO: A goldsmith weighs gold jewelry inside a showroom in Ahmedabad, India, July 31, 2025. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A goldsmith weighs gold jewelry inside a showroom in Ahmedabad, India, July 31, 2025. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo
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Gold Set for Weekly Drop as Oil Price Surge Weighs on Rate-cut Hopes

FILE PHOTO: A goldsmith weighs gold jewelry inside a showroom in Ahmedabad, India, July 31, 2025. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A goldsmith weighs gold jewelry inside a showroom in Ahmedabad, India, July 31, 2025. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo

Gold prices were on track for a second consecutive weekly drop, despite edging up on Friday, as surging energy prices due to the Middle East war dimmed prospects for near-term US interest rate cuts.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at $5,095.55 per ounce, as of 0633 GMT on Friday. US gold futures for April delivery fell 0.1% to $5,100.20.

The US 10-year Treasury yields eased, increasing the appeal of the non-yielding bullion. Bullion, however, has ‌lost more ‌than 1% so far this week. Since the war ‌started ⁠on February 28, ⁠it has dropped over 3% so far.

Fears of inflation and questions about the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates if high oil prices persist are somewhat counteracting gold's appeal, said Tim Waterer, KCM Trade chief market analyst.

"Given the ongoing uncertainty about the duration and scope of the conflict in the Middle East, I expect gold to remain on the ⁠radar for investors as a safety play." Heightening geopolitical ‌tensions, Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said ‌on Thursday that Tehran will keep the strategic Strait of Hormuz closed as ‌leverage against the US and Israel, which has stoked concerns about ‌global energy supply and risk assets.

Oil prices rose above $100 a barrel, as attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf and warnings from Iran shattered prospects of quick de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. As oil prices surged, US President Donald ‌Trump again demanded Fed Chair Jerome Powell cut interest rates.

Traders, however, expect the Fed to keep rates ⁠steady in the current ⁠3.5%-3.75% range at the end of its two-day meeting on March 18, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. While recent inflation data suggest price growth is under control, the war and the resulting spike in crude prices have yet to filter through the data.

Investors are awaiting the release of the delayed January Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, expected on Friday. Gold discounts in India widened this week to their deepest point in nearly a decade as demand stayed subdued and some traders steered clear of paying import duties, while the escalating Middle East war boosted safe-haven demand in China.

Spot silver was down 1% at $82.91 per ounce. Spot platinum lost 1% to $2,111.45 and palladium fell 1% to $1,603.

Business

Iran War and Rising Fuel Costs Could Boost Panama Canal Traffic, Administrator Says

A cargo ship sails under Las Americas bridge through the Panama Canal, in Panama City, Thursday, March 12, 2026. (AP)
A cargo ship sails under Las Americas bridge through the Panama Canal, in Panama City, Thursday, March 12, 2026. (AP)
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Iran War and Rising Fuel Costs Could Boost Panama Canal Traffic, Administrator Says

A cargo ship sails under Las Americas bridge through the Panama Canal, in Panama City, Thursday, March 12, 2026. (AP)
A cargo ship sails under Las Americas bridge through the Panama Canal, in Panama City, Thursday, March 12, 2026. (AP)

Panama Canal Administrator Ricaurte Vásquez said Thursday that the conflict in the Middle East and rising fuel costs could ultimately benefit the interoceanic waterway as global shippers adjust routes.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Vásquez said that higher energy, fuel and navigation costs could make the Panama Canal a more attractive option for commercial traffic.

“When costs increase, in general when the price of marine fuel rises, the Panama Canal becomes a more attractive route,” Vásquez said.

Oil prices have risen amid the war in the Middle East, which has led to the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in response to US and Israeli attacks. About one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the waterway at the mouth of the Gulf.

If higher energy costs persist, routing cargo through Panama can cut voyages by between three and 15 days, depending on the route, while reducing fuel consumption, he said.

Vásquez said higher fuel costs are expected to affect container ships, bulk carriers and tankers transporting liquefied natural gas. If Middle Eastern supplies are disrupted, shipments may be replaced by other sources, including the United States, which could redirect some LNG cargo from Europe to Asia via Panama.

Gerardo Bósquez, an executive with the Panama Maritime Chamber, said a prolonged conflict could reshape global trade routes, with gas transport among the segments likely to benefit.

Vásquez cautioned that any changes will not be immediate and will depend on how long cargo operators expect the conflict and instability in the Gulf last.

Business

ONS Data: UK Economy Lost Steam Unexpectedly at Start of 2026

FILE PHOTO: A direction sign is seen near the Bank of England building in London, Britain, February 3, 2025. REUTERS/Toby Melville//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A direction sign is seen near the Bank of England building in London, Britain, February 3, 2025. REUTERS/Toby Melville//File Photo
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ONS Data: UK Economy Lost Steam Unexpectedly at Start of 2026

FILE PHOTO: A direction sign is seen near the Bank of England building in London, Britain, February 3, 2025. REUTERS/Toby Melville//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A direction sign is seen near the Bank of England building in London, Britain, February 3, 2025. REUTERS/Toby Melville//File Photo

Britain's economy stagnated unexpectedly in January and expanded weakly in preceding months, according to official data on Friday that showed only tepid growth during the lead-up to the US-Israeli war in Iran.

The figures mean British gross domestic product has been essentially flat since June, ending January at the same level as six months earlier.

GDP rose during the three months to January by 0.2%, the Office for National Statistics ⁠said, against expectations ⁠in a Reuters poll of economists for a 0.3% increase.

The flat reading for January alone also dashed the median prediction for a 0.2% month-on-month increase.

Sterling slipped against the US dollar on the back of the figures, which showed no ⁠growth in the dominant services sector in January, against modest upticks in manufacturing and construction output.

Last month, the Bank of England said it expected the economy to grow 0.3% in the first quarter as a whole and 0.9% over 2026 as a whole - although that was before the conflict in Iran kicked off, prompting a surge in oil prices.

Earlier this week, finance minister Rachel Reeves ⁠said ⁠it was too soon to say how soaring energy prices would affect Britain's economy.

But investors see it as more exposed than other Western European economies due to its weak public finances, reliance on natural gas for electricity generation, and already high rates of inflation.

Financial markets no longer believe the Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates this year, and investors will be watching the central bank's communications carefully at next Thursday's interest rate announcement.