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Gold Set for Worst Month in More Than 17 Years as US Rate-cut Hopes Fade

An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)
An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)
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Gold Set for Worst Month in More Than 17 Years as US Rate-cut Hopes Fade

An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)
An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)

Gold prices rose on Tuesday on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, but were poised for their worst month in more than 17 years as higher energy prices dimmed hopes for a US interest rate cut this year.

Spot gold was up 1.1% at $4,561.68 per ounce, as of 0427 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery gained 0.7% to $4,590.

The dollar eased, making greenback-denominated commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies.

"Gold prices are bouncing in ⁠early Asia-Pacific trade ⁠after US President Donald Trump told aides he is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran... That triggered a risk-on response from financial markets," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Trump told aides that he is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and leave a ⁠complex operation to reopen it for a later date, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

"Gold has been stabilizing for about a week now, with a rally last Friday a particular standout. That came alongside a drop in Treasury yields that seems to suggest the markets are starting to see the Iran war as a recession risk," Reuters quoted Spivak as saying.

Bullion has fallen more than 13% so far this month, putting it on track for its steepest decline since October 2008, weighed down by a stronger dollar and fading expectations of a US interest rate cut ⁠this year. ⁠Prices are still up about 5% for the quarter.

Traders have almost completely priced out any chance of a US Federal Reserve rate cut this year, as higher energy prices threaten to feed into broader inflation.

Gold tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment as it is a non-yielding asset.

Before the war in the Middle East erupted, there were expectations of two Fed rate cuts for this year, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Goldman Sachs said in a note that it still expects gold to reach $5,400 per ounce by end 2026 on central bank diversification and Fed easing.

Spot silver rose 2.9% to $72.04 per ounce, spot platinum gained 0.6% to $1,911.15, and palladium was up 2% at $1,434.23.

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Business

Hapag-Lloyd Says One Ship Has Crossed Strait of Hormuz

Hapag-Lloyd employees monitor the status of cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz on a screen, in Hamburg, Germany, Wednesday, April 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi)
Hapag-Lloyd employees monitor the status of cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz on a screen, in Hamburg, Germany, Wednesday, April 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi)
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Hapag-Lloyd Says One Ship Has Crossed Strait of Hormuz

Hapag-Lloyd employees monitor the status of cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz on a screen, in Hamburg, Germany, Wednesday, April 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi)
Hapag-Lloyd employees monitor the status of cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz on a screen, in Hamburg, Germany, Wednesday, April 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi)

Container shipping group Hapag-Lloyd said on Friday that one of its ships has crossed the Strait of Hormuz but did not have any information on the circumstances or timing.

Four out of initially six ships remain in the Gulf, after one ship's charter agreement expired, meaning it no longer belongs to the Hapag-Lloyd fleet, a spokesperson added.

The four ⁠Hapag ships remaining ⁠in the Gulf are staffed with 100 crew, who are well-supplied with food and water, Reuters quoted him as saying.

Scores of tankers and other vessels remain stuck in the Gulf as the United States is ⁠struggling to keep control of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's busiest shipping corridors.

The Iran war, launched by the US and Israel on February 28, has been paused since a ceasefire on April 8.

The US and Iran met in Pakistan in an attempt to end hostilities, but talks ended without agreement and ⁠a ⁠second round has yet to take place.

Tehran says it will not consider opening the strait until the US lifts its blockade of Iran's shipping, which Washington imposed during the ceasefire and Tehran calls a violation of that truce.

This week, Iran flaunted its grip over the strait with a video of commandos in a speedboat storming a huge cargo ship.

Business

TotalEnergies to Invest in $1.2 Billion Power Project in Kazakhstan

FILE PHOTO: The logo of French oil and gas company TotalEnergies is seen at a petrol station in Paris, France, March 25, 2026. REUTERS/Abdul Saboor/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The logo of French oil and gas company TotalEnergies is seen at a petrol station in Paris, France, March 25, 2026. REUTERS/Abdul Saboor/File Photo
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TotalEnergies to Invest in $1.2 Billion Power Project in Kazakhstan

FILE PHOTO: The logo of French oil and gas company TotalEnergies is seen at a petrol station in Paris, France, March 25, 2026. REUTERS/Abdul Saboor/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The logo of French oil and gas company TotalEnergies is seen at a petrol station in Paris, France, March 25, 2026. REUTERS/Abdul Saboor/File Photo

French energy major TotalEnergies on Friday said it would invest in a Kazakhstan-based onshore wind and energy storage project, valued at $1.2 billion, and plans to sell the produced electricity to the country's government under a 25-year agreement signed in 2023.

The Mirny project, which is scheduled to reach full capacity in 2029, ⁠combines one gigawatt ⁠of wind capacity with 600 megawatt hours of battery energy storage, enough to supply about 1 million people in Kazakhstan, Reuters quoted the company as saying.

The launch of the project would ⁠contribute to Kazakhstan's target of increasing the share of renewables in electricity generation to 15% by 2030, Olivier Jouny, senior vice president for renewables at TotalEnergies, said in a statement.

Roughly 75% of the investment is financed externally through an agreement with an international consortium made of eight banks and entities, including the ⁠European ⁠Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Société Générale and China Construction Bank, TotalEnergies said.

TotalEnergies, jointly with partners Samruk Energy and KazMunayGas, controls a 60% stake in the project.

At the beginning of 2026, TotalEnergies had more than 34 GW of gross renewable power generation capacity, and it aims to achieve more than 100 terawatt hours of net electricity production by 2030.

Business

Oil Rises on Concern Over Escalating Middle East Tensions

HUNTINGTON BEACH, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 23: A pumpjack stands idle in the Huntington Beach oil field on April 23, 2026 in Huntington Beach, California. Mario Tama/Getty Images/AFP
HUNTINGTON BEACH, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 23: A pumpjack stands idle in the Huntington Beach oil field on April 23, 2026 in Huntington Beach, California. Mario Tama/Getty Images/AFP
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Oil Rises on Concern Over Escalating Middle East Tensions

HUNTINGTON BEACH, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 23: A pumpjack stands idle in the Huntington Beach oil field on April 23, 2026 in Huntington Beach, California. Mario Tama/Getty Images/AFP
HUNTINGTON BEACH, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 23: A pumpjack stands idle in the Huntington Beach oil field on April 23, 2026 in Huntington Beach, California. Mario Tama/Getty Images/AFP

Oil rose on Friday on concerns of a renewed military escalation in the Middle East after Iran released footage of commandos boarding a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, and a lack of progress in re-opening the key waterway.

Navigation through the strait, which before the war carried about a fifth of global oil output, remains effectively blocked. Iran's capture of two cargo ships highlighted Washington's difficulties in trying to control the passage.

Brent crude futures were up $1.93, ⁠or 1.8%, to $107 a ⁠barrel at 0805 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate futures were up 76 cents, or 0.8%, at $96.61, Reuters reported.

For the week, Brent is up 18% and WTI 15%, the second-largest weekly gains since the war began.

Both contracts settled more than 3% higher on Thursday after reports that air defenses were engaging targets over Tehran and of a ⁠power struggle between Iran's hardliners and moderates.

"There is no de-escalation in sight," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.

US President Donald Trump said Iran may have loaded up its weaponry "a little bit" during a two-week ceasefire, but added that the US military could eliminate it in a single day. On Wednesday, he said he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire to allow for further peace talks.

The ceasefire is increasingly looking like a preparatory phase for more war, Haitong Futures said in a report. If peace talks fail to make ⁠progress by ⁠the end of April and fighting resumes, oil prices could climb to new highs for the year, it added.

"There's set to be fresh financial pain ahead as key shipments from the region remain blocked," said Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at UK investment service Wealth Club. "That is set to keep costs elevated for a vast array of commodities."

As investors and governments around the world look for a lasting peace, Trump said he would not set a "timetable" for ending the conflict and that he wanted to make "a great deal."

"Don't rush me," he said when asked how long he was willing to wait for a long-term deal.