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Gold Set for Worst Month in More Than 17 Years as US Rate-cut Hopes Fade

An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)
An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)
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Gold Set for Worst Month in More Than 17 Years as US Rate-cut Hopes Fade

An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)
An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)

Gold prices rose on Tuesday on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, but were poised for their worst month in more than 17 years as higher energy prices dimmed hopes for a US interest rate cut this year.

Spot gold was up 1.1% at $4,561.68 per ounce, as of 0427 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery gained 0.7% to $4,590.

The dollar eased, making greenback-denominated commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies.

"Gold prices are bouncing in ⁠early Asia-Pacific trade ⁠after US President Donald Trump told aides he is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran... That triggered a risk-on response from financial markets," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Trump told aides that he is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and leave a ⁠complex operation to reopen it for a later date, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

"Gold has been stabilizing for about a week now, with a rally last Friday a particular standout. That came alongside a drop in Treasury yields that seems to suggest the markets are starting to see the Iran war as a recession risk," Reuters quoted Spivak as saying.

Bullion has fallen more than 13% so far this month, putting it on track for its steepest decline since October 2008, weighed down by a stronger dollar and fading expectations of a US interest rate cut ⁠this year. ⁠Prices are still up about 5% for the quarter.

Traders have almost completely priced out any chance of a US Federal Reserve rate cut this year, as higher energy prices threaten to feed into broader inflation.

Gold tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment as it is a non-yielding asset.

Before the war in the Middle East erupted, there were expectations of two Fed rate cuts for this year, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Goldman Sachs said in a note that it still expects gold to reach $5,400 per ounce by end 2026 on central bank diversification and Fed easing.

Spot silver rose 2.9% to $72.04 per ounce, spot platinum gained 0.6% to $1,911.15, and palladium was up 2% at $1,434.23.

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Business

China Expresses 'Gratitude' after 3 Ships Transit Hormuz Strait

FILE - Ships sail through the Arabian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz as the sun sets in the United Arab Emirates Monday, March 23, 2026. (AP Photo, File)
FILE - Ships sail through the Arabian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz as the sun sets in the United Arab Emirates Monday, March 23, 2026. (AP Photo, File)
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China Expresses 'Gratitude' after 3 Ships Transit Hormuz Strait

FILE - Ships sail through the Arabian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz as the sun sets in the United Arab Emirates Monday, March 23, 2026. (AP Photo, File)
FILE - Ships sail through the Arabian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz as the sun sets in the United Arab Emirates Monday, March 23, 2026. (AP Photo, File)

Beijing expressed "gratitude" on Tuesday as it said three Chinese ships had transited the crucial Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has all but closed during the war in the Middle East.

"Following coordination with relevant parties, three Chinese vessels recently transited the Strait of Hormuz; we express our gratitude to the relevant parties for the assistance provided," foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told a regular press conference.

Mao did not offer ‌details about the ‌Chinese ships.

Ship-tracking data showed two Chinese container ships sailed through the Strait of ⁠Hormuz on Monday ⁠on their second attempt to leave the Gulf after turning back on Friday.

The vessels sailed in close formation out of the strait and into open waters, data on the MarineTraffic platform showed.

"Both vessels successfully crossed on a second attempt today, marking the first container vessels to leave the Persian Gulf since the start of the conflict, excluding Iranian flag vessels," said Rebecca Gerdes, data analyst with Kpler, which owns MarineTraffic.

"Both vessels are steaming at an elevated speed toward the Gulf of Oman at the moment."

Officials from China's COSCO, the shipping group that operates ⁠the two vessels, did not respond to requests for comment. COSCO had said in a March 25 client advisory, that it had resumed bookings for general cargo containers for shipments from Asia to the Gulf including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq.

Iran has launched attacks on Gulf shipping and threatened more, stranding hundreds of vessels and 20,000 seafarers inside the Gulf.

Business

UNDP: Arab Countries May Lose Up to $194 Billion from Iran War

FILE PHOTO: A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
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UNDP: Arab Countries May Lose Up to $194 Billion from Iran War

FILE PHOTO: A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo

The military escalation in the Middle East, now into its fifth week, may cost economies in the region from 3.7 to 6 percent of their collective Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a staggering loss of $120-194 billion, a new United Nations study found.

“Coupled with an estimated rise in unemployment of up to 4 percentage points or 3.6 million jobs lost—more than the total jobs created in the region in 2025, these reversals will push up to 4 million people into poverty,” according to an analysis by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), which was released early Tuesday.

The assessment - “Military Escalation in the Middle East: Economic and Social Implications for the Arab States region” - exposes the concerning reality of structural vulnerabilities characteristic to the region, which enable a short lived military escalation to generate profound and widespread socio economic impacts that may persist over a long-term.

The agency said it had studied a number of different scenarios to determine how the conflict, which began on Feb. 28, might affect countries in the region. The report’s authors indicated that the damage could be profound, even if the war ends relatively soon.

“A short-lived military escalation in the Middle East could generate profound and widespread socio-economic impacts across the Arab States region,” they said.

“Since the escalation began, maritime security risks and attacks on tankers have sharply curtailed shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz,” said the study.

The Strait remains the world’s most critical maritime energy chokepoint, it added.

It warned that even limited military escalation or accidental incidents affecting the Strait can rapidly destabilize global energy markets and trigger sharp price movements.

The study added that simulations suggest that the military escalation could generate substantial but uneven macroeconomic impacts across the Arab States region.

Simulations indicate the Gulf Cooperation Council countries would experience macroeconomic impacts. GDP is projected to decline between 5.2 percent under the moderate disruption scenario and 8.5 percent under the most severe scenario.

The Levant region (Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria) could experience significant macroeconomic losses across all scenarios. Compared to the No-War scenario GDP is projected to decline between 5.2 percent and 8.7 percent.

These translate into between approximately 2.8 and 3.3 million additional people pushed into poverty.

The Human Development Index (HDI) declines by approximately –0.2 to –0.4 percent, corresponding to a loss of roughly half a year to nearly one year of human development progress. These impacts are most pronounced in the Levant, where losses translate into setbacks of around one to one and a half years.

According to the study, the war could also have significant implications for the region’s monetary, fiscal and financial conditions.

“The region’s central banks may therefore need to raise interest rates and intervene in foreign currency markets to contain foreign exchange and inflationary pressures and to provide liquidity support to banks,” it said.

Business

Türkiye Cenbank Chief Says 'Natural' to Use Gold amid War Fallout

The Central Bank of Türkiye sold $22 billion in foreign government bonds from its foreign exchange reserves since February 27 (Reuters)
The Central Bank of Türkiye sold $22 billion in foreign government bonds from its foreign exchange reserves since February 27 (Reuters)
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Türkiye Cenbank Chief Says 'Natural' to Use Gold amid War Fallout

The Central Bank of Türkiye sold $22 billion in foreign government bonds from its foreign exchange reserves since February 27 (Reuters)
The Central Bank of Türkiye sold $22 billion in foreign government bonds from its foreign exchange reserves since February 27 (Reuters)

Türkiye's central bank chief said market fallout from the Iran war hurts its fight against inflation, and in such situations it is a "natural choice" to turn to gold-based transactions to support liquidity.

Fatih Karahan, the governor, said in an interview with state-owned Anadolu Agency that the bank is determined to maintain ‌the needed tight ‌policy to continue Türkiye's disinflation ‌process, ⁠which began in ⁠2024 but slowed recently.

Annual inflation edged up to 31.5% last month and year-end expectations have risen since the war began a month ago, largely due to soaring global energy prices, Reuters reported.

In response, the ⁠central bank has halted its ‌easing cycle with ‌the main rate at 37%, lifted its overnight ‌rate by about 300 basis points to ‌near 40%, and undertaken heavy sales and swaps of forex and gold reserves to support the lira currency.

Total reserves have dropped ‌by roughly $55 billion over the last month. Over the last two ⁠weeks, ⁠the central bank has begun swapping or selling billions of dollars' worth of gold reserves.

"Using gold-backed transactions during periods when foreign exchange liquidity needs to be supported is a perfectly natural choice," Karahan was quoted as saying by Anadolu on Tuesday.

He said the central bank is pursuing a "proactive, flexible, and controlled" approach to its reserve-management and liquidity tools.