Iraq’s Oil Hub Slows to a Crawl as Strait of Hormuz Shutdown Strangles Exports

01 April 2026, Iraq, Erbil: Smoke rises from a motor oil depot on the outskirts of Erbil, after it was hit by a drone attack. Photo: Ismael Adnan/dpa
01 April 2026, Iraq, Erbil: Smoke rises from a motor oil depot on the outskirts of Erbil, after it was hit by a drone attack. Photo: Ismael Adnan/dpa
TT

Iraq’s Oil Hub Slows to a Crawl as Strait of Hormuz Shutdown Strangles Exports

01 April 2026, Iraq, Erbil: Smoke rises from a motor oil depot on the outskirts of Erbil, after it was hit by a drone attack. Photo: Ismael Adnan/dpa
01 April 2026, Iraq, Erbil: Smoke rises from a motor oil depot on the outskirts of Erbil, after it was hit by a drone attack. Photo: Ismael Adnan/dpa

Iraqi oil fields once alive with the buzz of workers are nearly deserted. Ports that pulsed with the churn of cargo have fallen still, the din of commerce replaced by the soft rhythm of waves.

A month after the war in Iran started, workers at ports and oil fields in the province of Basra, where almost all of Iraq's crude is produced and exported, have grown accustomed to rockets streaking across the sky, aimed at US air bases and other strategic facilities, The Associated Press said.

The war, which began with US-Israeli strikes, is dealing a heavy blow to Iraq's economy. Iraq relies on oil revenues for roughly 90% of its budget, and most of its oil is exported through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Arabian Gulf where Iran has effectively stopped cargo traffic during the conflict. The war also has led to a sharp reduction in the volume of imported goods reaching southern Iraq's ports, while attacks have halted traffic at the border it shares with Iran.

Unlike other countries in the Middle East touched by the war, Iraq hosts both entrenched Iran-aligned forces and significant US interests, leaving it exposed to attacks from both sides. Since the war started, oil production in southern Iraq, where Basra is located, has fallen by more than 70% and the volume of imported goods reaching the country's ports has been cut in half. Drone and missile attacks have targeted American companies and military bases. Iran's allied Iraqi militias also have struck oil fields and energy infrastructure. Many foreign workers have left.

The Iraqi government should have enough funds to get through mid-May without new oil sales, according to experts, but then it will have to borrow money.

“After that, the government would resort to issuing bonds,” said Ahmed Tabaqchali, an expert in Iraq’s economy. “But not without consequences.”

Oil production suspended

Across southern Iraq, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has prompted oil fields to scale back production and focus on domestic needs, while oil prices around the globe have risen. Basra’s Zubair oil field, once producing around 400,000 barrels per day, has seen output drop to roughly 250,000, officials said.

Iran has offered assurances that Iraqi crude can safely transit the strait, said Bassem Abdul Karim, the head of the state-run Basra Oil Company, which oversees production in the province. However, because Iraq lacks its own tanker fleet and depends on chartered vessels, shipments ultimately hinge on whether tanker owners are willing to accept the heightened risks of making the journey. Most are not.

At a degassing station in Zubair, where crude is processed, production has also slowed dramatically. “It’s quiet now because of the reductions,” said chief engineer Ammar Hashim. “Of course we are worried.”

The downturn in Zubair reflects a broader decline in Basra. Output has dropped from 3.1 million barrels per day to roughly 900,000 across the province, according to Abdul Karim.

“Exports are currently completely halted. At the moment, we are considering alternative loading areas, but none are fully operational,” he told The Associated Press.

That morning, a drone crashed in the Majnoon oil field north of Basra without detonating. A security official said it's an increasingly common occurrence, adding that the drone was likely headed toward US bases in Kuwait. Production at the field has been suspended due to the frequency of these events. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not permitted to speak to news media.

Hundreds of employees from American, British, Italian, French and other international oil companies have left Iraq due to the war. The departures accelerated after a March 6 drone strike hit the Burjisiya complex in Basra, a key logistics hub for Iraq’s oil industry used by numerous companies. The attack targeted US oil services company KBR, striking its chemical storage facility.

Another drone struck the British-Petroleum operated Rumaila oil field, prompting some foreign workers there to leave, said Abdul Karim. The field is still operating, he said. On Wednesday, multiple drones attacked a fuel warehouse linked to BP in northern Iraq.

Efforts to reroute Iraq's oil face major constraints: The country doesn't have the capacity to boost exports via its northern pipeline, and trucking through Jordan and Syria is costly and inefficient, said Abdul Karim.

Shipping lanes closed Umm Qasr, Iraq’s primary deep-water port, was once so noisy with imported cargo that it could give you a headache, workers there said.

Now, with the Strait of Hormuz closed, large mother ships bringing shipments to Iraq can no longer get to the port. Instead, they dock in the United Arab Emirates, where the cargo is carried by trucks and then smaller ships to get to Umm Qasr, a costly workaround.

The port’s jetties are running well below their former capacity, with volumes halved by the war, according to port director Mohammed Tahir Fadhil.

When the AP visited, just one cargo ship from the U.A.E. had docked.

The threat to shipping lanes escalated after Iran destroyed two tankers on March 11 in Iraqi waters, the Marshall Islands-flagged Safesea Vishnu and the Malta-flagged Zefyros.

“Today, our only gateway for goods is the United Arab Emirates,” said Farhan Fartousi, director of the Iraqi Ports Company.

Trade disrupted

On Sunday morning, Haidar Abdul-Samad, deputy director of Basra’s Shalamcha border crossing with Iran, was on the phone with an Iranian official, complaining about electricity cuts that had halted trade, urging a quick resolution. The power cuts followed an airstrike that hit the Iranian side of the crossing.

Such disruptions, local officials say, have become routine.

Before the war, the crossing saw constant movement, reflecting strong familial and commercial ties between Iranians and Iraqis in the area. It is also a key transit point for traders and pilgrims heading to Shiite holy sites in central Iraq.

That morning, trucks were backed up for miles.

“Priority is given to food supplies to prevent price increases,” Abdul-Samad said. “Passenger movement is not at the same level as before; activity has declined due to the war in Iran.”

Once electricity was restored, 30-year-old Iranian trader Atefa Al-Fatlawi arrived with her husband and young son. She buys goods at lower prices in Basra to sell back home.

“We are scared because of the bombings,” she said. “Shalamcha was targeted. Today, there were no transport vehicles at the garage because of the attack.”



Egypt Says Close to Issuing $500 Million Japan Samurai Bond

A minibus moves along a main road underneath new Cairo Monorail track as a train moves above in the Fifth Settlement, a neighborhood of the New Cairo suburb of Cairo, on May 22, 2026. (Photo by Khaled DESOUKI / AFP)
A minibus moves along a main road underneath new Cairo Monorail track as a train moves above in the Fifth Settlement, a neighborhood of the New Cairo suburb of Cairo, on May 22, 2026. (Photo by Khaled DESOUKI / AFP)
TT

Egypt Says Close to Issuing $500 Million Japan Samurai Bond

A minibus moves along a main road underneath new Cairo Monorail track as a train moves above in the Fifth Settlement, a neighborhood of the New Cairo suburb of Cairo, on May 22, 2026. (Photo by Khaled DESOUKI / AFP)
A minibus moves along a main road underneath new Cairo Monorail track as a train moves above in the Fifth Settlement, a neighborhood of the New Cairo suburb of Cairo, on May 22, 2026. (Photo by Khaled DESOUKI / AFP)

Egypt is finalizing plans for its first yen-denominated bond sale in three years, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty told Reuters on a trip to Japan on Thursday.

The African Development Bank said in December it would partially guarantee Cairo's planned $500 million-equivalent Samurai bonds on the Japanese markets this year.

"We are completing the final ⁠steps," Abdelatty said ⁠on the sidelines of an event in Tokyo, adding that he had been promoting the sale and other investment opportunities while in Japan.

"We had extensive discussions ⁠with our Japanese friends on monetary, fiscal, financial support, especially with regard to budget support and samurai bonds as well."

Egypt's economy has been boosted in recent years by major real estate investments and an $8 billion IMF loan, though the Iran war is piling pressure ⁠on ⁠its finances.

The bond sale would be Egypt's third in the currency, following issuances in 2022 and 2023.

"It will be very important, despite the fact that we've been hit hard with implications of the (Iran) war," Abdelatty said.


Oil Falls as Lebanon and Israel Agree on a Ceasefire

FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows an offshore oil platform in Guanabara Bay in Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, March 18, 2026.  REUTERS/Pilar Olivares/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows an offshore oil platform in Guanabara Bay in Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, March 18, 2026. REUTERS/Pilar Olivares/File Photo
TT

Oil Falls as Lebanon and Israel Agree on a Ceasefire

FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows an offshore oil platform in Guanabara Bay in Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, March 18, 2026.  REUTERS/Pilar Olivares/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows an offshore oil platform in Guanabara Bay in Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, March 18, 2026. REUTERS/Pilar Olivares/File Photo

Oil prices fell on Thursday as a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon boosted hopes for a broader agreement to end the US-Israeli war with Iran that could lead to a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent futures were down 87 cents, or 0.89%, at $96.92 a barrel by 0458 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 78 cents, or 0.81%, to $95.24, paring gains from earlier in the week, said Reuters.

Both Brent and WTI rose about 2% on Wednesday after renewed Middle East hostilities including Iranian attacks on Kuwait ‌and US military strikes ‌near the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel and Lebanon ‌said ⁠late on Wednesday ⁠they had agreed to implement a ceasefire, raising hopes for a deal between Washington and Tehran, which has conditioned any agreement in part on an end to fighting between Israel and Lebanon.

US President Donald Trump suggested on Wednesday that there could be progress in negotiations with Iran as soon as this weekend.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Wednesday said Tehran's ⁠contacts with Washington have not been cut ‌off, but no progress has been made ‌in the negotiations, adding both sides were studying the texts that were exchanged.

In ‌the US, the Republican-led House approved a resolution on Wednesday to ‌block Trump from continuing the war against Iran. To take effect, the resolution would need Senate approval and two-thirds majorities in both chambers to override an almost certain Trump veto.

Meanwhile, US crude stockpiles fell by 8 million barrels to ‌433.7 million barrels in the week ended May 29, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. ⁠That was a ⁠much bigger drop than the 4-million-barrel draw analysts had expected in a Reuters poll.

The International Energy Agency warned on Tuesday that global oil inventories could hit critical levels ahead of peak summer demand if stock draws continue at their current pace, despite Chinese crude imports falling by 6 million barrels a day in May compared to March.

“Inventories have provided a cushion for the oil market. However, even if we see an imminent restart of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the recovery will be slow and gradual,” a note from ING said.

“This suggests inventories are likely to continue to tighten into the third quarter, leaving upside risk to prices.”


IMF Praises Saudi Economy’s Resilience

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
TT

IMF Praises Saudi Economy’s Resilience

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) affirmed that the Saudi economy has demonstrated high resilience in the face of regional geopolitical tensions that have obstructed navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Fund praised the Kingdom's ability to contain the fallout from the navigation disruption through a swift logistical response, which involved redirecting oil shipments towards the East-West pipeline and Red Sea ports, leveraging the legacy of its Vision 2030 structural reforms.

“The Saudi economy is demonstrating agility and resilience, supported by robust and diversified infrastructure and the authorities’ concerted efforts to redirect shipments and ease logistical bottlenecks,” mission head Azim Sadikov said on Wednesday in the IMF's latest Article IV mission report following a visit to the Kingdom from April 28 to May 13.

“A prompt rerouting of oil through the East-West pipeline and Red Sea ports, combined with Aramco’s overseas inventories, has helped limit the drop in oil deliveries," it said.

"Saudi Arabia's strong fundamentals—low government debt, ample reserves, and a large sovereign wealth fund—provide important buffers,” the report added.

“Assuming maritime shipments through the Strait of Hormuz normalize in the coming months, a recovery could take hold, with growth this year notably lower but holding up at about 2 percent. Non-oil activity would be supported by domestic demand, underpinned by stable public employment, government spending, and the steady execution of private and public capital projects. Average inflation is projected to increase to about 2.3 percent as higher shipping and insurance costs add upward pressure on prices. Higher oil prices are expected to offset volume losses, generating a windfall that would reduce the current account and fiscal deficits in 2026.”

In its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth at 3.1% for 2026, 1.4 percentage points lower than a January estimate. It had said that the Kingdom was expected to be less severely affected by the war.

In the Outlook, the IMF also upgraded Saudi Arabia's 2027 GDP growth forecast to 4.5%, a 0.9% increase from previous projections. This upward revision reflected anticipated normalizations in energy output and logistics.

In Wednesday’s report, the IMF said given the Saudi economy’s resilience, “the mission considers that a modest reduction in the non-oil primary deficit in 2026 remains appropriate, with spending reprioritization as the first line of action to accommodate any fiscal response to the conflict.”

The report lauded Saudi Arabia's strong fundamentals—low government debt, ample reserves, and a large sovereign wealth fund— that provide important buffers.

It said that should the shock prove more prolonged, Saudi Arabia has the space to loosen the fiscal stance to cushion the economy, with support to affected businesses and households that should be temporary, targeted, and transparent.

As the economy normalizes, an ambitious medium-term fiscal consolidation anchored on non-oil revenue mobilization and spending rationalization is needed, it said.

On the banking sector, the IMF said: “The peg to the US dollar provides a credible monetary policy anchor and helps underpin financial stability, particularly in the current environment of heightened uncertainty.”

“The banking sector is well-positioned to weather the shock, supported by strong capital and liquidity buffers,” it added.

The mission welcomed the efforts of the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) to step up the monitoring of liquidity, credit conditions, and asset quality. It also supported “SAMA's decision to proceed with the implementation of the 100 basis points countercyclical capital buffer, its proactive approach to containing risks from FX borrowing, and continued progress in strengthening its resolution and emergency liquidity assistance frameworks.”

The report added: “Ten years since its launch, Vision 2030 reforms have helped strengthen institutions and improve policymaking, boosting economic performance and reducing dependence on oil.”

“Sustaining the reform momentum to remove remaining impediments to diversification and to expand the role of the private sector will be key to maintaining strong growth prospects for the medium term,” it said.

In this regard, the IMF lauded PIF's recalibrated 2026–30 strategy, with its shift toward more selective capital allocation and greater private-sector crowding-in.

The report called for “improving the business environment, deepening capital markets, supporting small and medium enterprises, aligning education with labor market needs, strengthening governance, and scaling AI adoption while mitigating associated risks.”