The International Monetary Fund expects to have to provide up to $50 billion in immediate financial assistance to countries affected by the Middle East war, its managing director said on Thursday, with the crisis likely to have lasting economic effects.
"Given the spillovers of the Middle East war, we expect near-term demand for IMF balance-of-payments support to rise to somewhere between $20 billion and $50 billion, with the lower bound prevailing if the ceasefire holds," Kristalina Georgieva said, according to prepared remarks shared with AFP.
She added that food insecurity due to transport and supply chain disruptions caused by the war was expected to affect at least 45 million people.
"Even in a best case, there will be no neat and clean return to the status quo ante," she said, as a fragile ceasefire appeared to hold on Thursday.
The IMF will pare its global growth forecast for 2026 based on the impact of the crisis, with spiraling energy costs hitting some vulnerable economies harder than others.
Georgieva said that even in the Fund's "most hopeful scenario," infrastructure damage, supply disruptions and a loss of market confidence among other "scarring effects" meant growth would be less than expected.
She highlighted the "asymmetric" effects of the crisis, hitting low-income energy importers with limited fiscal space much harder than others.
"Spare a thought for the Pacific Island nations at the end of a long supply chain, wondering if fuel will still reach them in the wake of such a severe disruption," she said.
