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Gold Rises as Dollar Softens, Lower Oil Prices Ease Inflation Fears

Gold bracelets and necklaces on display for sale in a gold shop in the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul (AFP)
Gold bracelets and necklaces on display for sale in a gold shop in the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul (AFP)
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Gold Rises as Dollar Softens, Lower Oil Prices Ease Inflation Fears

Gold bracelets and necklaces on display for sale in a gold shop in the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul (AFP)
Gold bracelets and necklaces on display for sale in a gold shop in the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul (AFP)

Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by a softer dollar and easing inflation fears as oil prices dropped on hopes of further US-Iran peace talks.

Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,775.20 per ounce, as of 0755 GMT. US gold futures for June delivery rose 0.7% to $4,798.40, Reuters reported.

Oil prices fell below $100 a barrel as signs of potential ⁠talks to end the ⁠US-Iran war eased concerns about supply risks stemming from the US blockade of Iranian ports.

Higher crude prices feed into inflation by raising transportation and production costs. While gold is treated as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates weigh on the non-yielding metal's demand.

Markets appear to ⁠think that there's still time for a deal between the United States and Iran, said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive. Reuters reported on Tuesday that negotiating teams from the US and Iran could return to Islamabad this week, days after talks between the two countries ended in the Pakistani capital without a breakthrough.

The US dollar fell to its lowest level in more than a month on hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough, making the greenback-denominated ⁠gold more ⁠affordable for holders of other currencies.

"Near-term, a thin macro calendar might make US-Iran headlines the driving engine. That sets the stage for choppy price action for now," Spivak said, adding that gold could face resistance around $4,850.

Traders currently see a 31% chance of a 25-basis-point US rate cut this year, up from about 13% last week. Before the war, there were expectations of two cuts for this year.

Among other metals, spot silver rose 2.9% to $77.73 per ounce, platinum gained 0.8% to $2,086.15, and palladium was up 0.7% at $1,585.42.

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Business

IMF Says World Is Drifting Toward More Adverse Growth Scenario as Energy Disruptions Continue

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of IMF Research Department, speaks during an economic outlook briefing during the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 14, 2026. (AFP)
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of IMF Research Department, speaks during an economic outlook briefing during the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 14, 2026. (AFP)
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IMF Says World Is Drifting Toward More Adverse Growth Scenario as Energy Disruptions Continue

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of IMF Research Department, speaks during an economic outlook briefing during the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 14, 2026. (AFP)
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of IMF Research Department, speaks during an economic outlook briefing during the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 14, 2026. (AFP)

The world may be already drifting towards the International Monetary Fund's "adverse scenario" forecast of weaker 2.5% global growth in 2026 even as it released ‌on Tuesday ‌a more benign ‌reference ⁠forecast of 3.1% growth, ⁠IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.

Gourinchas told a news conference that the reference forecast assumes that the conflict is ⁠resolved quickly and that energy ‌prices ‌normalize in the second ‌half of 2026, but acknowledged ‌that the war's developments are fluid and changing daily. He said the reference forecast ‌was "not quite yet" irrelevant.

"I would say that we ⁠are ⁠somewhere in between the reference scenario and the adverse scenario," Gourinchas said.

"And of course, every day that passes and every day that we have more disruption in energy, we are drifting closer towards the adverse scenario."

Business

Iraq Says Has ‘Understandings’ to Bypass Hormuz Blockade

A worker rides a bicycle at the Zubair oil field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker rides a bicycle at the Zubair oil field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)
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Iraq Says Has ‘Understandings’ to Bypass Hormuz Blockade

A worker rides a bicycle at the Zubair oil field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker rides a bicycle at the Zubair oil field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)

Baghdad's oil ministry said Tuesday it has "understandings" with the United States and Iran to reduce the impact of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Iraqi oil exports.

The ministry did not elaborate or say when these reported understandings were reached.

But Iran announced earlier this month -- before the fragile ceasefire was reached last Wednesday with the United States -- that it would allow Iraqi shipping to transit the key waterway.

Iraqi oil ministry spokesperson Saheb Bazoun told the Iraqi News Agency (INA) "there are understandings with the American and Iranian sides to circumvent the blockade imposed on the Strait of Hormuz, and with all parties to guarantee exports".

A founding member of the OPEC oil cartel, Iraq normally exports the majority of its crude through the strait, but like other exporters in the oil-rich region, it has been left scrambling for alternative routes.

Bazoun told INA that Iraq was continuing to use secondary export routes, including a pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan and via Syria's Baniyas port.

Authorities announced earlier this month Iraq has begun exporting crude using tanker trucks through Syria, after resuming oil exports of 250,000 barrels per day through Ceyhan.

The Middle East war has wrought havoc on energy markets, especially after Iran tightened the screws on the Strait of Hormuz -- through which roughly a fifth of global oil and gas passes -- sharply slowing maritime traffic, and reportedly charging transit fees.

Despite the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, and after a failed attempt to reach an agreement, Washington imposed a blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, sending tremors through global energy markets.

Oil exports account for some 90 percent of Iraq's budget revenues, which plummeted more than 70 percent in March compared with February.

Business

Saudi Arabia Boosts Water Efficiency with Over $26.7 Billion in Investments Since 2018

Shuaibah Desalination Plant (Saudi Water Authority)
Shuaibah Desalination Plant (Saudi Water Authority)
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Saudi Arabia Boosts Water Efficiency with Over $26.7 Billion in Investments Since 2018

Shuaibah Desalination Plant (Saudi Water Authority)
Shuaibah Desalination Plant (Saudi Water Authority)

Saudi Arabia has invested about SAR100 billion ($26.7 billion) in its water sector since 2018, as part of its National Water Strategy to improve efficiency and sustainability while expanding private sector participation in line with Vision 2030.

Deputy Minister for Water at the Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture Abdulaziz Al-Shaibani told Asharq Al-Awsat that increased public-private partnerships are driving a shift toward a more efficient operating model and easing pressure on the state budget.

He said private sector involvement has transferred capital costs for major projects, including desalination plants, transmission networks, storage facilities and wastewater treatment, while boosting value across the supply chain through water reuse and reducing reliance on non-renewable resources.

Lower operating costs have also strengthened the sector’s appeal to investors. Seawater desalination using reverse osmosis now costs about SAR0.74 per cubic meter, while groundwater desalination costs around SAR0.55, offering competitive returns for local and international investors.

Local content in privatization projects has reached about 70 percent, while Saudis account for 90 percent of operational jobs, highlighting the sector’s contribution to economic growth and employment.

Al-Shaibani said investment in research and development has helped reduce production costs and localize key technologies, including reverse osmosis membrane manufacturing, valued at SAR 1.14 billion ($304 million). This supports the development of domestic supply chains and increases economic value added.

According to data from the Saudi Water Partnership Company (SWPC), 51 privatization projects have been launched with total investments of about SAR56 billion ($14.9 billion), including operational projects and others under development or tender.

Private sector production capacity is expected to reach 2.6 million cubic meters per day by 2030 and rise to 8.18 million cubic meters per day by 2032. Water transmission capacity between cities is projected to reach 2.43 million cubic meters per day by 2029, while strategic storage capacity is expected to reach just over 7 million cubic meters.

Major projects include the Juranah Independent Strategic Water Reservoir in Makkah province, with a capacity of 2.5 million cubic meters, the Rayis-Rabigh Independent Water Transmission Project, and the Rabigh 3 Independent Water Plant, all developed under long-term contracts to ensure sustainability.

The Al-Khafji solar-powered desalination plant, one of the world’s leading projects of its kind, has reduced desalination costs by about 40 percent, supporting more efficient and sustainable production.