Indian PM Urges Reduced Fuel Use amid Middle East War Disruption

FILE PHOTO: Workers assemble Ather 450X electric scooter inside Ather Energy's manufacturing facility in Hosur in southern state of Tamil Nadu, India, March 23, 2025. REUTERS/Nandan Mandayam/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Workers assemble Ather 450X electric scooter inside Ather Energy's manufacturing facility in Hosur in southern state of Tamil Nadu, India, March 23, 2025. REUTERS/Nandan Mandayam/File Photo
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Indian PM Urges Reduced Fuel Use amid Middle East War Disruption

FILE PHOTO: Workers assemble Ather 450X electric scooter inside Ather Energy's manufacturing facility in Hosur in southern state of Tamil Nadu, India, March 23, 2025. REUTERS/Nandan Mandayam/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Workers assemble Ather 450X electric scooter inside Ather Energy's manufacturing facility in Hosur in southern state of Tamil Nadu, India, March 23, 2025. REUTERS/Nandan Mandayam/File Photo

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday urged the people of India to cut down on petrol and diesel consumption amid supply disruptions due to the Middle East war.

India is one of few countries in the region that has not increased prices of petrol and diesel for domestic consumers or rationed supplies, according to AFP.

But it has increased prices of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) -- a primary cooking fuel in the country -- after disruptions following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, which led to Iran's near-total blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

"We have to reduce our use of petrol and diesel. In cities with metro lines, we should try to travel by metro...If we must use a car, then we should try to car pool," Modi said Sunday, addressing a gathering in southern Telangana state.

He added that restrictions on use were also necessary to save foreign currency spent on fuel imports.

"We must also place a strong emphasis on saving foreign exchange, as petrol and diesel have become so expensive globally."

Modi also urged people to resume energy-saving schemes that were in place during the Covid pandemic.

"We should prioritize work from home, online conferences, and virtual meetings again," he said.

Hardeep Singh Puri, India's minister for petroleum and natural gas, said oil marketing companies (OMCs) had taken a hit on their revenues while ensuring "uninterrupted energy imports and supply."

"OMCs are buying crude, gas and LPG at higher cost, but in order to protect consumers, they are selling final products at lower cost leading to massive mounting losses of up to 1,000 crore rupees (approximately $120 million) per day," Puri said Sunday on X.

He added that losses for the government, after reducing taxes on diesel and petrol for domestic consumption, "saw revenue losses of 14,000 crore rupees (approximately $1.6 billion) in a month."

He urged citizens to turn Modi's "empathetic appeal" into a mass movement "to save and conserve energy."



Saudi Aramco Beats Forecasts with Adjusted First-Quarter Income of $33.6 Billion

Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser speaks at a previous Aramco event. (Reuters)
Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser speaks at a previous Aramco event. (Reuters)
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Saudi Aramco Beats Forecasts with Adjusted First-Quarter Income of $33.6 Billion

Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser speaks at a previous Aramco event. (Reuters)
Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser speaks at a previous Aramco event. (Reuters)

Saudi Aramco reported a sharp rise in first-quarter profit for 2026, beating analyst expectations as higher oil prices and increased crude sales offset geopolitical disruptions linked to shipping constraints in the Strait of Hormuz.

Aramco’s adjusted net income rose nearly 26% to $33.6 billion (SAR126.0 billion), above analysts’ average forecast of SAR109 billion and up from SAR99.8 billion a year earlier, according to a company statement on Sunday.

The company approved a base dividend of $21.89 billion (SAR82.08 billion), in line with its strategy to provide sustainable and growing returns backed by strong cash flow generation and a solid balance sheet.

The results highlighted Aramco’s ability to generate cash flow from operating activities of $30.7 billion despite heightened geopolitical tensions affecting global energy markets.

Iran’s blockade of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Israeli conflict disrupted global energy supplies and pushed oil prices higher, prompting Aramco to increase crude flows from its eastern facilities to the Red Sea port of Yanbu through its East-West pipeline network.

Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser said in this regard: “Our East-West Pipeline, which reached its maximum capacity of 7.0 million barrels of oil per day, has proven itself to be a critical supply artery, helping to mitigate the impact of a global energy shock and providing relief to customers affected by shipping constraints in the Strait of Hormuz.”

“Recent events have clearly demonstrated the vital contribution of oil and gas to energy security and the global economy, and are a stark reminder that reliable energy supply is critical,” Nasser added.

Crude prices climbed from around $65 per barrel in early February to more than $100 in March after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a global energy shock.

Strong revenue and profit growth

Adjusted net income of $33.6 billion (SAR125.97 billion) exceeded analysts’ consensus estimate of $31.16 billion.

The figure reflects underlying operating performance excluding non-recurring items and accounting impacts related to replacement costs, fair-value movements in certain derivatives and financing costs totaling about $1.06 billion (SAR3.96 billion), according to results published on the Saudi stock exchange website.

Net income rose more than 25% year-on-year to $32.04 billion (SAR120.13 billion), compared with $25.51 billion (SAR95.68 billion) in the same quarter of 2025, driven by higher crude oil prices and increased sales volumes.

Revenue increased 7% to $115.49 billion (SAR433.10 billion), supported by higher prices for crude oil, refined products and chemicals, as well as higher sales volumes of crude and chemical products.

On a quarterly basis, net income jumped 72.9% from the fourth quarter of 2025, rising from $18.53 billion to $32.04 billion, helped by stronger margins and lower operating costs despite higher taxes and zakat payments.

Aramco said shareholders’ equity rose 3.9% year-on-year to $408.46 billion (SAR1.5 trillion), while earnings per share reached $0.13 (SAR0.50).

Cash flow and financial position

Cash flow from operating activities totaled $30.7 billion (SAR115.2 billion).

Free cash flow came in at $18.6 billion (SAR69.9 billion), down slightly from $19.2 billion a year earlier, reflecting a strategic increase in working capital of $15.8 billion (SAR59.1 billion) aimed at ensuring business continuity.

The company maintained a strong capital structure, with gearing at 4.8%, up from 3.8% at the end of 2025. Return on average capital employed stood at 20.7%.

Aramco shares rose 0.8% after the results announcement to close at SAR27.42, with trading volume of around 12 million shares.

Dividends and expansion plans

Aramco’s board declared a first-quarter base dividend of $21.9 billion (SAR82.1 billion), up 3.5% from a year earlier, to be paid in the second quarter.

The company also invested $12.1 billion (SAR45.4 billion) in capital expenditure during the quarter as part of plans to expand production capacity and strengthen strategic infrastructure.

Nasser said the company’s first-quarter performance reflected “strong resilience and operational flexibility in a complex geopolitical environment.”

“Despite these headwinds, Aramco remains focused on its strategic priorities and is leveraging both its domestic infrastructure and its global network to navigate disruption,” he stated.

In comments to Reuters, Nasser warned the global oil market could take time to stabilize after recent disruptions.

The world has lost about one billion barrels of oil over the past two months, Nasser said, adding: “Our goal is simple: to ensure energy keeps flowing, even under the pressure the system is facing.”

Resilience

Hussein Al-Attas, a financial and economic adviser, told Asharq Al-Awsat that Aramco’s results demonstrated the strength of its operating model and its ability to benefit from higher oil prices.

“What stands out in these results is not only profit growth, but also the company’s operational flexibility in managing supply chains and exports under complex geopolitical conditions, which preserved strong cash flow levels and sustainable shareholder distributions,” he noted.

Al-Attas said part of the earnings growth was linked to exceptional price increases during the quarter, meaning future profitability would remain closely tied to global oil price trends and supply stability.

For his part, Mohammed Al-Farraj, senior head of asset management at Arbah Capital, said Aramco’s large cash distributions enhanced the stock’s appeal as a defensive investment for institutional and long-term investors, particularly sovereign wealth funds and pension funds.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the company’s low production costs and strong balance sheet supported its ability to continue distributing dividends despite energy market volatility.

Al-Farraj also said Aramco’s $3 billion share buyback program, announced in March, reflected management confidence in the company’s valuation and long-term cash generation capacity.

The repurchased shares will be held as treasury shares and allocated to employee stock programs, the company said.

Al-Farraj added that Aramco continued pursuing diversification through investments in natural gas, liquefied natural gas and projects such as the Jafurah field, while also deploying artificial intelligence technologies to improve efficiency and reduce costs.


China Consumer Prices Rise on Iran War Oil Squeeze

 Buildings including China Zun, the tallest building in Beijing, are seen in the central business district in Beijing at dusk on May 7, 2026. (AFP)
Buildings including China Zun, the tallest building in Beijing, are seen in the central business district in Beijing at dusk on May 7, 2026. (AFP)
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China Consumer Prices Rise on Iran War Oil Squeeze

 Buildings including China Zun, the tallest building in Beijing, are seen in the central business district in Beijing at dusk on May 7, 2026. (AFP)
Buildings including China Zun, the tallest building in Beijing, are seen in the central business district in Beijing at dusk on May 7, 2026. (AFP)

China's consumer prices ticked up in April as the cost of crude oil rose globally due to the Iran war, official data showed on Monday.

Helped by the surging oil costs, factory gate prices also continued to show signs of recovery, rising for a second straight month after being stuck in negative territory since October 2022.

However, analysts warn deflation is still a threat for the world's second-largest economy as prices in other sectors continue to fall and overcapacity remains a headache.

China's consumer price index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, last month rose 1.2 percent year-on-year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

The jump was due to "changes in international crude oil prices and increased demand for holiday travel", according to Dong Lijuan, chief NBS statistician.

Domestic gas prices rose 19.3 percent on-year, Dong said, impacted by international commodity price fluctuations.

A five-day holiday at the beginning of May also typically sees more travel and spending in the weeks preceding it.

However, last month's CPI was still well below the government's two percent target for the year.

The April producer price index (PPI), which measures wholesale inflation, increased by 2.8 percent on-year -- up from 0.5 percent in March.

It beat a Bloomberg forecast of 1.8 percent and marked the quickest pace since July 2022, when the PPI rose by 4.2 percent on-year.

The gauge slipped into negative territory that October and did not reverse until March.

"The rise in international crude oil prices drove up prices in domestic petroleum-related sectors," the NBS' Dong said in a statement, listing fuel processing and manufacturing of raw materials.

But analysts warn shocks caused by oil blockages in the Middle East are temporary.

"The fallout from the Iran War pushed up inflation again in April but price pressures remain narrow in scope and aren't likely to build into a wider reflationary impulse," Capital Economics said in a note.

"(With) overcapacity in most sectors unresolved and domestic demand growth still sluggish, the ingredients for a sustained reflationary impulse still appear to be missing."


Asia Braces for a Second Wave of Energy Shocks from the Iran War

An employee pumps gasoline into a customer’s motorbike at a gas station in Hanoi, Vietnam, 04 May 2026. (EPA)
An employee pumps gasoline into a customer’s motorbike at a gas station in Hanoi, Vietnam, 04 May 2026. (EPA)
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Asia Braces for a Second Wave of Energy Shocks from the Iran War

An employee pumps gasoline into a customer’s motorbike at a gas station in Hanoi, Vietnam, 04 May 2026. (EPA)
An employee pumps gasoline into a customer’s motorbike at a gas station in Hanoi, Vietnam, 04 May 2026. (EPA)

Asia’s first defenses against energy shocks from the Iran war are running short and a more consequential second wave of impacts is beginning to hit.

When the war started, governments scrambled to adapt to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for energy flowing to Asia. They made difficult trade-offs: saving power at the risk of slowing businesses, prioritizing gas for households at the risk of fertilizer production and dipping into energy stockpiles for temporary relief.

But these measures were based on the war lasting only a short time, allowing a quick resumption of energy flows. That has not happened.

With no clear end in sight, the fuel crisis is now rippling across economies. Airfare costs, shipping rates and utility bills are climbing, jeopardizing economic growth. About 8.8 million people are in danger of being pushed into poverty and the conflict may cause $299 billion in economic losses to the Asia-Pacific region, according to the United Nations Development Program.

“The countries with the least resources to respond, or the consumers who can least afford to pay, are the ones who feel everything first,” said Samantha Gross of the US-based think tank Brookings Institution.

Asian governments planned their budgets assuming the price of oil would average around $70 a barrel. Subsidies helped to keep fuel prices stable. But the war pushed the price of Brent crude to as high as about $120 a barrel.

Governments now face a stark choice between maintaining those costly subsidies, straining public finances, or cutting them to pass higher costs on to consumers, risking a public backlash, said Ahmad Rafdi Endut, a Kuala Lumpur-based independent energy analyst.

Asia braces for a second wave of impacts

In India, early steps to redirect fuel supplies toward cooking gas for roughly 330 million households cut into supplies for fertilizer plants. The surging of fertilizer prices and meteorologists warning of weak rainfall in an El Niño year is a concern for the world’s largest rice exporter.

India has relied on subsidies to shield its 1.4 billion people until now, but on Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to buy locally and cut down on travel abroad to save dollars. He also encouraged people to work from home and use public transport to reduce fuel consumption, and asked farmers to halve fertilizer use.

The Philippines quickly shifted to a four-day work week to save fuel. It also rolled out targeted subsidies for poorer households. However, Fitch Ratings noted that most consumers are still paying higher energy costs, causing business activity to slow in major cities like Manila.

Thailand abandoned its diesel price cap less than a month after the conflict began, as its fuel subsidies ran out. It's now cutting other spending to manage higher oil prices while trying to keep its budget under control.

Vietnam extended a suspension of fuel taxes to ease pressure on domestic prices. Jet fuel shortages have led to flight cuts. Tourism makes up nearly 8% of Vietnam's gross domestic product — the nation's total output of goods and services — so that affects the entire economy.

“Business is not good right now," said Hanoi-based tour guide Nguyen Manh Thang. “There are already fewer tourists.”

Fuel shortages have pushed cash-strapped countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh to buy oil and gas at current market prices, which are often higher and more volatile than long-term contracts. This raises import costs and adds to pressure on their already limited foreign exchange reserves.

Governments can keep costly fuel subsidies by cutting spending from other priorities like welfare, or borrow more and risk higher inflation, said Endut in Kuala Lumpur. Alternatively, they can reduce subsidies and pass higher costs on to consumers, risking angering voters.

Once subsidies are exhausted and inflation starts to rise, countries could face what he called a “fiscal time bomb.”

Vulnerable Asia will not see immediate relief

The war's eventual end won't bring quick respite to Asia.

The global oil and gas trade will not bounce back right away, and it will take time to restart production, said Gross with the Brookings Institution. Repairing damaged infrastructure, restarting facilities and allowing for transport time from the Middle East to final markets will take weeks or even months.

Europe will feel a similar impact to Asia, but with about a four-week lag, experts say.

Americans are also feeling the pinch as gas prices spike across the US But Southeast Asia is currently the “biggest pain point," said Henning Gloystein of the Eurasia Group consultancy firm.

“This fuel shortage situation is going to get worse,” he said.

In Africa, higher energy and import costs are similarly straining budgets, widening deficits and driving up inflation. The war is also taking a toll on Latin America and the Caribbean, where growth is projected to slow slightly.

The complex disruptions across global supply chains will continue to have broader impacts, warned Ted Krantz, CEO of supply chain risk firm Interos.ai.

The crisis also highlights the fragility of Asia’s growing middle class, said Maria Monica Wihardja of the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, with many people at risk of slipping back into poverty.

The energy shock will reshape Southeast Asia’s economies over time, she said, including shifts in job markets and how countries plan for future energy crises.

Countries are already debating and implementing longer-term solutions, like diversifying fossil fuel suppliers, developing nuclear energy and renewables like solar.

The war is making geopolitical risk central to the economic outlook of Southeast Asia and directly slowing regional growth, said Albert Park of the Asian Development Bank.

"The longer it lasts, the larger those negative effects would be,” he said.