Saudi Aramco Beats Forecasts with Adjusted First-Quarter Income of $33.6 Billion

Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser speaks at a previous Aramco event. (Reuters)
Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser speaks at a previous Aramco event. (Reuters)
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Saudi Aramco Beats Forecasts with Adjusted First-Quarter Income of $33.6 Billion

Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser speaks at a previous Aramco event. (Reuters)
Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser speaks at a previous Aramco event. (Reuters)

Saudi Aramco reported a sharp rise in first-quarter profit for 2026, beating analyst expectations as higher oil prices and increased crude sales offset geopolitical disruptions linked to shipping constraints in the Strait of Hormuz.

Aramco’s adjusted net income rose nearly 26% to $33.6 billion (SAR126.0 billion), above analysts’ average forecast of SAR109 billion and up from SAR99.8 billion a year earlier, according to a company statement on Sunday.

The company approved a base dividend of $21.89 billion (SAR82.08 billion), in line with its strategy to provide sustainable and growing returns backed by strong cash flow generation and a solid balance sheet.

The results highlighted Aramco’s ability to generate cash flow from operating activities of $30.7 billion despite heightened geopolitical tensions affecting global energy markets.

Iran’s blockade of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Israeli conflict disrupted global energy supplies and pushed oil prices higher, prompting Aramco to increase crude flows from its eastern facilities to the Red Sea port of Yanbu through its East-West pipeline network.

Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser said in this regard: “Our East-West Pipeline, which reached its maximum capacity of 7.0 million barrels of oil per day, has proven itself to be a critical supply artery, helping to mitigate the impact of a global energy shock and providing relief to customers affected by shipping constraints in the Strait of Hormuz.”

“Recent events have clearly demonstrated the vital contribution of oil and gas to energy security and the global economy, and are a stark reminder that reliable energy supply is critical,” Nasser added.

Crude prices climbed from around $65 per barrel in early February to more than $100 in March after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a global energy shock.

Strong revenue and profit growth

Adjusted net income of $33.6 billion (SAR125.97 billion) exceeded analysts’ consensus estimate of $31.16 billion.

The figure reflects underlying operating performance excluding non-recurring items and accounting impacts related to replacement costs, fair-value movements in certain derivatives and financing costs totaling about $1.06 billion (SAR3.96 billion), according to results published on the Saudi stock exchange website.

Net income rose more than 25% year-on-year to $32.04 billion (SAR120.13 billion), compared with $25.51 billion (SAR95.68 billion) in the same quarter of 2025, driven by higher crude oil prices and increased sales volumes.

Revenue increased 7% to $115.49 billion (SAR433.10 billion), supported by higher prices for crude oil, refined products and chemicals, as well as higher sales volumes of crude and chemical products.

On a quarterly basis, net income jumped 72.9% from the fourth quarter of 2025, rising from $18.53 billion to $32.04 billion, helped by stronger margins and lower operating costs despite higher taxes and zakat payments.

Aramco said shareholders’ equity rose 3.9% year-on-year to $408.46 billion (SAR1.5 trillion), while earnings per share reached $0.13 (SAR0.50).

Cash flow and financial position

Cash flow from operating activities totaled $30.7 billion (SAR115.2 billion).

Free cash flow came in at $18.6 billion (SAR69.9 billion), down slightly from $19.2 billion a year earlier, reflecting a strategic increase in working capital of $15.8 billion (SAR59.1 billion) aimed at ensuring business continuity.

The company maintained a strong capital structure, with gearing at 4.8%, up from 3.8% at the end of 2025. Return on average capital employed stood at 20.7%.

Aramco shares rose 0.8% after the results announcement to close at SAR27.42, with trading volume of around 12 million shares.

Dividends and expansion plans

Aramco’s board declared a first-quarter base dividend of $21.9 billion (SAR82.1 billion), up 3.5% from a year earlier, to be paid in the second quarter.

The company also invested $12.1 billion (SAR45.4 billion) in capital expenditure during the quarter as part of plans to expand production capacity and strengthen strategic infrastructure.

Nasser said the company’s first-quarter performance reflected “strong resilience and operational flexibility in a complex geopolitical environment.”

“Despite these headwinds, Aramco remains focused on its strategic priorities and is leveraging both its domestic infrastructure and its global network to navigate disruption,” he stated.

In comments to Reuters, Nasser warned the global oil market could take time to stabilize after recent disruptions.

The world has lost about one billion barrels of oil over the past two months, Nasser said, adding: “Our goal is simple: to ensure energy keeps flowing, even under the pressure the system is facing.”

Resilience

Hussein Al-Attas, a financial and economic adviser, told Asharq Al-Awsat that Aramco’s results demonstrated the strength of its operating model and its ability to benefit from higher oil prices.

“What stands out in these results is not only profit growth, but also the company’s operational flexibility in managing supply chains and exports under complex geopolitical conditions, which preserved strong cash flow levels and sustainable shareholder distributions,” he noted.

Al-Attas said part of the earnings growth was linked to exceptional price increases during the quarter, meaning future profitability would remain closely tied to global oil price trends and supply stability.

For his part, Mohammed Al-Farraj, senior head of asset management at Arbah Capital, said Aramco’s large cash distributions enhanced the stock’s appeal as a defensive investment for institutional and long-term investors, particularly sovereign wealth funds and pension funds.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the company’s low production costs and strong balance sheet supported its ability to continue distributing dividends despite energy market volatility.

Al-Farraj also said Aramco’s $3 billion share buyback program, announced in March, reflected management confidence in the company’s valuation and long-term cash generation capacity.

The repurchased shares will be held as treasury shares and allocated to employee stock programs, the company said.

Al-Farraj added that Aramco continued pursuing diversification through investments in natural gas, liquefied natural gas and projects such as the Jafurah field, while also deploying artificial intelligence technologies to improve efficiency and reduce costs.



GCC Chief Emphasizes Gulf Integration, Diversified Partnerships at IMF MENAP Meeting

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GCC Chief Emphasizes Gulf Integration, Diversified Partnerships at IMF MENAP Meeting

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary-General Jasem Albudaiwi underscored that GCC economies have demonstrated strong resilience against global economic shocks and geopolitical shifts, supported by solid fundamentals, substantial financial reserves, robust banking sectors, and prudent fiscal management.

Albudaiwi delivered his remarks during a meeting of the finance ministers and central bank governors of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region with International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, held on the sidelines of the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok, SPA reported.

Albudaiwi pointed out that recent geopolitical developments have impacted global energy production, maritime shipping, and trade flows, demonstrating the close link between Gulf stability and broader global economic security. He noted that disruptions along key energy corridors and trade routes inevitably reverberate across international markets.

Albudaiwi affirmed that the GCC economies possess the capacity to sustain recovery and growth through 2027 and beyond, propelled by strategic investments and non-oil diversification. He emphasized the necessity of balancing short-term economic responses with long-term fiscal sustainability, maintaining adequate buffers to mitigate future market volatility.

Highlighting future growth sectors, the secretary-general cited advanced industries, digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and human capital development, alongside empowering the private sector to expand its role in global value chains.

Concluding his address, Albudaiwi stressed that long-term resilience requires advancing Gulf economic integration, upgrading logistical corridors, and diversifying international partnerships to transform ongoing global challenges into sustainable economic opportunities.


Turkish Cenbank Says to Maintain Tight Monetary Stance Till Price Stability

Turkish Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan speaks during a press conference in Istanbul, Türkiye, February 7, 2025. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
Turkish Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan speaks during a press conference in Istanbul, Türkiye, February 7, 2025. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
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Turkish Cenbank Says to Maintain Tight Monetary Stance Till Price Stability

Turkish Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan speaks during a press conference in Istanbul, Türkiye, February 7, 2025. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
Turkish Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan speaks during a press conference in Istanbul, Türkiye, February 7, 2025. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya

Turkish Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan on Wednesday said the bank would maintain its tight monetary policy until price stability is achieved.

According to Reuters, He was speaking about Türkiye's monetary policy and macroeconomic outlook during a visit to Bangkok for a meeting of the World Bank.

Here are some details from the governor's presentation:

* Underlying inflation ⁠is moderating despite ⁠elevated energy prices
* Soft demand dampens inflationary impulses from supply shocks
* Proactive measures limit the possible contagion from trade-restricted funds
* Turkish lira preference remains strong under tight monetary policy
* The ⁠tight monetary policy stance, which will be maintained until price stability is achieved, will strengthen the disinflation process through demand, exchange rate, and expectation channels
* The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will determine the policy rate by taking into account realized and expected inflation and its underlying trend in a way to ensure ⁠the tightness ⁠required by the projected disinflation path in line with the interim targets
* Monetary policy decisions are made prudently on a meeting-by-meeting basis with a focus on the inflation outlook
* Monetary policy stance will be tightened in case of a significant deviation in inflation outlook from the interim targets


Lebanon’s Deepening Cost-of-Living Crisis Raises Fears of Unrest

A woman carries grocery bags in Beirut amid continued price increases (Reuters)
A woman carries grocery bags in Beirut amid continued price increases (Reuters)
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Lebanon’s Deepening Cost-of-Living Crisis Raises Fears of Unrest

A woman carries grocery bags in Beirut amid continued price increases (Reuters)
A woman carries grocery bags in Beirut amid continued price increases (Reuters)

Lebanon’s worsening cost-of-living crisis and widening poverty are threatening to erase the country’s fragile economic recovery, raising fears of social unrest as inflation accelerates and the fallout from successive wars deepens.

Two major rounds of fighting over the past two years have wiped out much of the progress made in restoring economic growth, undermining efforts by the country’s political leadership and government to overcome the financial collapse and revive support from regional and international partners.

Food inflation has reached an average of 20% this year, with monthly increases of around 2%, while a recent World Bank report on Lebanon’s poverty outlook highlighted a sharp deterioration in food security.

The number of people facing crisis or emergency levels of food insecurity rose to approximately 1.24 million in 2026, up from 874,000 in 2025, with South Lebanon and Nabatieh among the hardest-hit regions.

Business and labor union sources warned that worsening living conditions could spark a wave of protests, confronting the government with challenges extending beyond its ongoing disputes with public sector employees and retirees.

Low incomes and soaring prices have already prompted intermittent strikes, partially disrupting ministries and public institutions and affecting Treasury revenues from vital services.

According to employer and labor representatives, more than a quarter of Lebanon’s residents now face severe poverty or acute economic hardship.

Based on the World Bank’s figures and an average household size of five, this represents roughly 250,000 families.

The sources estimated that broader financial hardship affects nearly 80% of residents, as cumulative price increases have pushed the inflation index close to 9,000 percentage points, largely reflecting successive surges since the financial and monetary crisis erupted in 2019.

The World Bank highlighted the deterioration in household living conditions following the escalation of hostilities in spring 2026.

Displaced families have become increasingly dependent on informal support networks and dwindling financial resources after losing income and productive assets.

Meanwhile, reduced electricity generation at Lebanon’s fuel-powered state plants has forced households to shoulder steep increases in private generator subscription fees, further eroding purchasing power. The crisis is compounded by the government’s strained finances and concerns over a further decline in Treasury revenues.

Lebanon’s financial collapse has left an estimated loss gap exceeding $70 billion, while successive rounds of fighting since autumn 2023 have caused more than $27 billion in direct and indirect economic and reconstruction-related losses, according to official estimates.

The World Bank forecasts a 6.4% contraction in gross domestic product in 2026, reversing the fragile 4.2% recovery recorded the previous year. Annual inflation rose to 17.3% in the first half of 2026, compared with 14.6% in 2025.

Despite conflict-related pressures, the World Bank reported that Lebanon’s public finances maintained a surplus of $1 billion, equivalent to 2.5% of GDP, through the end of May.

The surplus represented a 32% year-on-year increase, supported by a 26.6% rise in government revenues, particularly receipts from fuel excise taxes.

Public spending climbed 23.7%, driven by higher public sector salaries, capital expenditure, hospitalization costs and conflict-related Treasury advances.

Meanwhile, prices for water, electricity, gas and other fuels rose 25.3% year-on-year, while transportation costs increased 29.5% by midyear.

On the monetary front, the World Bank linked the Lebanese pound’s stable exchange rate against the US dollar to tight liquidity in local currency.

However, foreign currency reserves at Banque du Liban fell to $11.6 billion in mid-August, enough to cover approximately 6.6 months of imports, compared with $12.1 billion in mid-February.

The decline reflected the central bank’s need to draw on its reserves to meet foreign currency obligations amid reduced dollar availability in the market.

Lebanon’s trade deficit widened 8.8% year-on-year to $10.2 billion by the end of July, as exports fell 16.6% and imports rose 4.2%.

The report attributed the deterioration to conflict-related disruptions affecting exports, alongside higher oil prices and insurance premiums.

Energy imports rose 9% in value to approximately $3 billion during the first seven months of the year, despite a 31% decline in imported volumes.

The imbalance placed additional pressure on Lebanon’s current account, further straining foreign currency inflows and reserves.