Iran War and Oil Dominate BRICS Meet in India

India's Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar (R) speaks to Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi at the opening of the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in New Delhi. Arun SANKAR / AFP
India's Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar (R) speaks to Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi at the opening of the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in New Delhi. Arun SANKAR / AFP
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Iran War and Oil Dominate BRICS Meet in India

India's Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar (R) speaks to Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi at the opening of the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in New Delhi. Arun SANKAR / AFP
India's Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar (R) speaks to Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi at the opening of the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in New Delhi. Arun SANKAR / AFP

BRICS foreign ministers, including from Iran and Russia, met in New Delhi on Thursday, where India warned of "considerable flux" with conflict driving economic uncertainty and energy insecurity.

War in Iran and the related fuel crisis are dominating discussions in the two-day gathering, said AFP.

India, which holds the BRICS chair this year, was hosting the foreign ministers from the expanded bloc, which now includes Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

"We meet at a time of considerable flux in international relations," India's Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said, in his opening speech, before closed meetings began.

Among the foreign ministers attending were Iran's Abbas Araghchi and Russia's Sergei Lavrov.

"Ongoing conflicts, economic uncertainties, and challenges in trade, technology, and climate are shaping the global landscape," Jaishankar added.

"There is a growing expectation, particularly from emerging markets and developing countries, that BRICS will play a constructive and stabilizing role."

Disruptions around Gulf shipping routes and the Strait of Hormuz continue to drive volatility in oil and gas markets, increasing pressure on energy-importing economies, including India.

"Development issues remain central," Jaishankar added. "Many countries continue to face challenges on energy, food, fertilizer and health security, as well as also access to finance."

- 'Volatile global environment' -

The conflict involving Iran has added strain to India's economy, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern energy supplies and fertilizer imports, and has cast uncertainty over New Delhi's growth outlook.

India, the world's third-largest oil buyer, normally sources about half of its crude through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that has been repeatedly blocked since war began.

Ship tracking and import data show that India has partially plugged the gap by turning to old allies, expanding promising ties and reviving suppliers it had not tapped in years.

The biggest backstop has been Russian crude -- a fuel source New Delhi spent much of the past year trying to pivot away from under stiff US tariffs.

Jaishankar met with Lavrov on Wednesday evening.

"Our political cooperation is even more valuable in an uncertain and volatile global environment," Jaishankar said in remarks at the meeting, adding that discussions included "trade and investment, energy and connectivity".

BRICS was created in 2009 as a forum for major emerging economies seeking greater influence in institutions dominated by Western powers.

The grouping, originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, has since expanded, as members sought to boost the bloc's global political and economic influence.

It now includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates.

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi was not attending -- with US President Donald Trump in Beijing on Thursday.

India will hold a leaders' summit later this year, and the foreign ministers will also meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the foreign ministry said.

With deep divisions among some members, including over the Middle East war and criticism of Western powers, it was not clear whether a joint statement would be released at the meeting's end.

"We will let you know as things progress," India's foreign ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal told reporters.



OPEC+ Decides on Fourth Oil Quota Hike Since Hormuz Closure

Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
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OPEC+ Decides on Fourth Oil Quota Hike Since Hormuz Closure

Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)

OPEC+ agreed on Sunday a fourth increase in its oil output targets in as many months, even though the US war with Iran is still preventing several of the group's members from pumping more.

The war has cut oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz, creating the world's biggest-ever supply crisis as key OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia have been unable to supply customers in full since the end of February.

Seven core members of OPEC+, which ‌groups ⁠OPEC and allied producers ⁠including Russia, have increased their output quotas from April to June by almost 600,000 barrels per day.

In reality, the group's production has collapsed due to export cuts by Gulf members, averaging 33.19 million bpd in April compared with 42.77 million in February, according to OPEC figures.

On Sunday, the seven members decided to increase targets by 188,000 bpd from July, OPEC said in a statement.

This is the same as the June hike, which was adjusted down from monthly increases ⁠of 206,000 bpd in May and April to take into ‌account the United Arab Emirates’ exit. The UAE left OPEC after almost 60 years.

On Friday, oil prices fell to around $93 a barrel as traders gained confidence that renewed conflict between the US and Iran was growing less likely. Prices were close to $72 before the war began.

The seven countries are ‌increasing production as part of the gradual unwinding of a 1.65 million bpd production cut that the group, which at the time ⁠included UAE, agreed ⁠in 2023.

The seven of 21 OPEC+ members who met on Sunday are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. In recent years, only the seven plus the UAE when it was a member have been involved in the group's output policy decisions.


China’s Central Bank Extends Gold Buying Spree for 19th Month in May

Gold items are displayed at a jewellery shop in downtown Kuwait City on June 6, 2026. (AFP)
Gold items are displayed at a jewellery shop in downtown Kuwait City on June 6, 2026. (AFP)
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China’s Central Bank Extends Gold Buying Spree for 19th Month in May

Gold items are displayed at a jewellery shop in downtown Kuwait City on June 6, 2026. (AFP)
Gold items are displayed at a jewellery shop in downtown Kuwait City on June 6, 2026. (AFP)

China's central bank increased up its gold reserves for a 19th month in May, data from the People's Bank of China showed on Sunday.

The country's gold reserves rose to 74.96 million ‌fine troy ‌ounces by the ‌end ⁠of May, versus the ⁠previous month's 74.64 million ounces

China's gold reserves were valued at $340.75 billion by the end of last month, down ⁠from $344.17 billion the ‌month prior, ‌according to the PBOC data.

Spot gold prices logged ‌a third straight month of decline in May as peace talks between the United ‌States and Iran failing to yield results.

Inflation ⁠risks ⁠following rising oil prices kept the "higher-for-longer" interest rate theme alive, with the dollar remaining elevated.

Gold continued to decline in June and was most recently traded at near $4,330 an ounce.


What is Expected from Today's OPEC+ Major Producers Meeting?

A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28, 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Phot
A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28, 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Phot
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What is Expected from Today's OPEC+ Major Producers Meeting?

A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28, 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Phot
A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28, 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Phot

All eyes turn Sunday to a series of intensive and simultaneous ministerial meetings of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ alliance. These meetings are taking place under exceptional circumstances in global energy markets, as producers strive through these multiple platforms to lay out the foundations for a new phase of balance and strategic certainty.

Three consecutive meetings will be held today, reflecting the precise institutional nature of managing this phase. It begins with the OPEC Administrative Conference, followed by the 66th meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), responsible for monitoring compliance levels, ensuring alignment, and approving current compensation plans, culminating in the 41st ministerial meeting of the broader OPEC+ alliance—a meeting the global investment community is eagerly anticipating.

This coordinated effort is driven by positive momentum and close coordination, epitomized by the important meeting that brought together Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum a few days ago.

The meeting reflected great optimism about the alliance's ability to lead the market with a flexible vision, with discussions focusing on the following positive points:

* Securing Energy Supplies: The Saudi affirmation that the world today needs "every molecule of energy" possible, reflecting the Kingdom's and the alliance's commitment to their role as a safety valve for the global economy.

* Flexibility and Readiness: OPEC+'s high ability to adapt and confront emergent geopolitical and logistical changes, while precisely revising future demand forecasts to ensure investment sustainability.

* Preparing for the Future: Coordination between the two poles aims to prepare a solid ground for the smooth and gradual return of supply flows once temporary logistical factors in the region subside.

Expectations and Targets

Instead of focusing on transient fluctuations, observers expect today's meeting to affirm collective commitment and reaffirm full solidarity among the seven major alliance countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – to ensure long-term market stability through the approval of flexible production policies. Sources told Reuters that production targets are expected to increase by approximately 188,000 barrels per day for next July, reflecting a cautious and measured approach that allows for quick and gradual intervention options based on daily market data.

Fitch

This flexible move aligns with the in-depth analysis presented by Fitch Ratings in its latest reports. The agency affirmed that the current closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents "a temporary and transient logistical shock" and in no way indicates a structural or permanent shift in global oil market trends.

The agency maintained its strategic view that global supplies will collectively exceed demand throughout 2026, based on the absence of any severe damage to oil infrastructure in the region, and the exceptional ability to achieve a rapid and intensive recovery of production in the Middle East once the strait is expected to reopen by the end of next July – assuming an actual closure period of approximately five months.

According to Fitch's base scenario, the average Brent crude price will hover around $87 per barrel throughout 2026, noting that the absence of production capacity due to the temporary logistical disruption will reduce supplies by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day compared to 2025.

However, the agency anticipates a sharp market rebound towards a surplus starting in September, with the surplus (oil glut) reaching approximately 4 million barrels per day in the last quarter of 2026, supported by strong growth from non-OPEC producers. This will exert downward pressure on prices, restoring the market to its natural equilibrium.

Fitch concludes that this dynamic lends significant effectiveness to OPEC+ plans, as the alliance possesses the ability to exceed previous quotas and pump additional quantities to ensure demand is met and prevent any structural shortages, solidifying the alliance's role as a strategic institution that transforms geopolitical challenges into real opportunities to support energy security, global economic growth, and sustainability.