Syria-US Gas Deal Aims to Ease Financial Bottleneck

Syria’s Jihar gas field, one of the country’s major gas fields, in the desert west of Palmyra in Homs province. Syrian Energy Ministry/File Photo
Syria’s Jihar gas field, one of the country’s major gas fields, in the desert west of Palmyra in Homs province. Syrian Energy Ministry/File Photo
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Syria-US Gas Deal Aims to Ease Financial Bottleneck

Syria’s Jihar gas field, one of the country’s major gas fields, in the desert west of Palmyra in Homs province. Syrian Energy Ministry/File Photo
Syria’s Jihar gas field, one of the country’s major gas fields, in the desert west of Palmyra in Homs province. Syrian Energy Ministry/File Photo

The Syrian Petroleum Company has signed a major implementation contract with US companies ConocoPhillips and Novaterra Energy to develop gas fields and raise production, marking the most significant strategic breakthrough in economic and political ties between Damascus and Washington since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in late 2024.

The agreement is the first major US energy deal in Syria in years. It also offers the clearest sign yet that the country has entered a phase of “integrated implementation” after US President Donald Trump’s decision to lift sanctions in July 2025.

The contract follows earlier US moves, beginning in early 2026, through memoranda of understanding with other companies, including Chevron for offshore exploration and HKN Energy for the onshore Rmeilan fields.

But the ConocoPhillips deal stands out as the largest binding implementation contract to develop Syria’s domestic gas sector, backed by Gulf and European alliances and financing aimed at ending the country’s acute energy crisis.

Energy experts say the deal, based on understandings reached last November, will go beyond the technical oil and gas sector. They see it as an international “vote of confidence” that could help break the financial bottleneck facing Syria’s new government, whose 2026 budget deficit is estimated at about $1.8 billion.

The US return comes as major regional and international players move into Syria’s energy sector through parallel contracts and partnerships with Saudi companies, including ADES, as well as Qatari and French firms. Together, these moves place Syria’s gas sector on the edge of a promising new phase that could drive recovery and reconstruction.

The contract puts earlier understandings into effect. In November 2025, the Syrian Petroleum Company signed a memorandum of understanding with ConocoPhillips and Novaterra Energy. Technical, legal and commercial talks followed, culminating in the latest agreement.

Importance of the contract

Syrian academic and energy expert Ziad Arbash said the deal matters because it turns a memorandum of understanding into an implementation contract. It sends a strong signal to global markets, he said, that Syria has become an attractive destination for oil and gas investment.

He said the agreement would also raise the “level of oil activity” in Syria in tangible ways: more work teams, engineers and technicians in the fields, modern rigs and equipment built to the latest technical standards, and stronger infrastructure and logistics to support company operations.

Arbash told Asharq Al-Awsat that every additional company operating in Syria helps draw in others. That, he said, lowers operating costs through economies of scale and the exchange of expertise, while creating a competitive environment that benefits the national economy.

A vote of confidence

The contract could have a wider ripple effect. For Arbash, the presence of a company the size of ConocoPhillips in the Syrian market is “a vote of confidence for other companies.”

He said it reduces the perceived risks of investing in Syria and demonstrates the Syrian government’s commitment to creating an investment environment that can attract major international firms.

Recent indicators point in the same direction. The Syrian Petroleum Company signed a contract with Saudi Arabia’s ADES to develop gas fields in April, after signing a memorandum of understanding with US company Chevron and a Qatari company in February. Reports have also pointed to alliances between US and Saudi companies to invest in northeastern Syria.

Breaking the financial bottleneck

The new Syrian government inherited a shattered economy from the previous government and is struggling with a budget deficit of about $1.8 billion.

According to figures presented by Finance Minister Yisr Barnieh at an April news conference announcing the 2026 budget, revenues are estimated at about 959 billion Syrian pounds, or around $8.7 billion, against spending of 1,056.7 billion pounds, or about $10.5 billion.

Arbash described the contract as “a pivotal step in overcoming the financial bottleneck” in the state budget through two linked tracks.

The first is easing the import bill. Syria currently depends on imports and regional supplies to improve electricity provision. At its pre-war peak, gas output stood at about 28 million cubic meters per day. It has since fallen to roughly a third of that level.

The government aims to raise production to about 15 million cubic meters per day next year. The contract is expected to add between 4 million and 5 million cubic meters per day within one year of work beginning. According to Arbash, that would sharply reduce the cost of importing oil and petroleum products, while better securing local gas needs for electricity and other vital sectors.

The second track is “exports and revenues.” Once Syria achieves a production surplus, it could move toward exports, generating hard currency that would ease pressure on the state budget and strengthen its ability to finance reconstruction and development projects.

Current estimates suggest the first phase of the project could increase production within one year of work beginning. Arbash urged caution, however, saying: “Let us be realistic and add another year before reaching the increase of 5 million cubic meters per day.”

An important breakthrough in bilateral relations

The contract was signed as relations between Syria’s new authorities and the Trump administration continue to improve after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s rule in late 2024.

Arbash said the agreement represents an important breakthrough in relations between the two countries. It is the first implementation contract with a major US oil and gas company since Assad’s fall, reflects a shift in US policy toward Syria, and opens a channel for direct economic cooperation that could positively impact other political files.

The signing came as Damascus continues efforts to attract US investment. Syrian Energy Minister Mohamed al-Bashir discussed investment opportunities in the oil and gas sector with US officials last week.

According to Arbash, the deal could pave the way for broader normalization between the two countries, especially as other US companies enter the scene, including Baker Hughes, Hunt Energy and Argent LNG, which are preparing a comprehensive plan to develop Syria’s energy sector.

Current state of gas fields and production

Syria’s gas sector faces a long road back from the deep supply deficit left by 14 years of conflict. A United Nations report estimates direct and indirect losses to the oil and gas sector at more than $115 billion between 2011 and 2023.

Current production data published on the US Embassy in Damascus page shows a total domestic gas supply of only 7-10 million cubic meters per day. That is a steep fall from the pre-war peak of up to 30 million cubic meters per day.

Demand, meanwhile, has risen to between 23 million and 30 million cubic meters per day, driven mainly by the severe shortage in electricity generation. The gap leaves a daily shortfall of up to 15 million cubic meters, placing heavy constraints on power plants.

That is why Damascus has set its sights on a strategic goal for 2030: using the new international partnerships to double gas production before the end of the decade.

Infrastructure

The sector suffered heavy damage during the war, including to fields, facilities and transmission lines. Sanctions also obstructed maintenance for years. Still, Arbash said that developing proven gas reserves estimated at about 285 billion cubic meters could allow current production to return to its pre-war peak of 28 million cubic meters per day within four years.

Syria needs about 23 million cubic meters of water per day to ensure continuous electricity supplies.

For now, the country relies on imports and regional supplies to improve electricity provision. These include a project to supply Azerbaijani gas through Türkiye with Qatari financing, providing about 3.4 million cubic meters per day, or to supply it directly from Qatar through Jordan.

Syria is currently focused on rehabilitating infrastructure at existing fields through contracts with companies such as Saudi Arabia’s ADES. It also aims to double production through strategic partnerships with international companies, as reflected in the contract with ConocoPhillips and Novaterra Energy.

For Arbash, the signing marks “a qualitative shift in Syria’s energy sector” at a critical moment. Syria, he said, is trying to overcome its financial bottleneck, raise the “level of oil activity,” restore international confidence, attract additional Arab and Western investment, and “open a new page in Syrian-US relations through direct economic cooperation.”

“With expectations that the fruits of this contract will begin to appear within a year, and with parallel projects involving Saudi, Qatari and French companies, Syria’s gas sector is entering a promising phase that could become a main driver of economic recovery and a way out of the suffocating financial crisis, provided there is transparency in tendering and implementation,” Arbash said.

Where are the fields?

The agreements quickly had an impact on the ground. The Syrian Petroleum Company recently took over oil and gas fields that had been controlled by the Kurdish-led autonomous administration in the northeast, extending government control over resources concentrated in three main areas.

The eastern region, including Deir Ezzor and Hasakah, includes the Conoco field northeast of Deir Ezzor. ConocoPhillips established the field in 2001 with a capacity of 4.7 billion cubic meters a year. It produced 13 million cubic meters per day before halting operations because of attacks. The region also includes the al-Jabsa field in Hasakah. Together, the two fields accounted for 53% of Syria’s production before 2011.

The central region and the Homs desert include al-Shaer, the country’s largest field, with a production capacity of 35 million cubic meters per year in 2010. The area also includes the al-Jihar field west of Palmyra, as well as the al-Mahr and al-Jazal fields.

Arbash concluded that, based on these combined indicators, Syria’s gas sector is entering a promising phase capable of leading economic recovery and easing the suffocating financial crisis, provided the highest standards of “transparency in tendering and implementation” are upheld.

 



Diesel Prices Overtake Jet Fuel in Europe as Global Shortage Widens

Petrol prices are displayed at a filling station, as the price of oil and gas has surged amid the conflict in the Middle East, in London, Britain, March 5, 2026 REUTERS/Jack Taylor
Petrol prices are displayed at a filling station, as the price of oil and gas has surged amid the conflict in the Middle East, in London, Britain, March 5, 2026 REUTERS/Jack Taylor
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Diesel Prices Overtake Jet Fuel in Europe as Global Shortage Widens

Petrol prices are displayed at a filling station, as the price of oil and gas has surged amid the conflict in the Middle East, in London, Britain, March 5, 2026 REUTERS/Jack Taylor
Petrol prices are displayed at a filling station, as the price of oil and gas has surged amid the conflict in the Middle East, in London, Britain, March 5, 2026 REUTERS/Jack Taylor

Diesel cargoes are costing more than jet fuel in Europe for the first time in more than a year, LSEG data showed, as the continent replaces lower Middle East air fuel shipments with other sources of supply, but struggles to secure more diesel for industry and agriculture.

Europe has been able to pull in jet cargoes from the US and other countries like Nigeria as prices surged after the start of the Iran war, which disrupted crude and fuel supply. Global diesel supply tightened even further when Russia banned exports amid Ukrainian attacks on its refineries.

"We see a higher risk of persistent scarcity pricing in diesel than in crude heading into winter," analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note.

Europe boosted imports of jet fuel to 750,000 barrels per day in June — the highest since October 2025 — and a similar rate in July from 612,000 bpd in January, according to Kpler.

By contrast, European diesel imports have dropped to 1.56 million bpd in July from 1.97 million bpd in January. Against that backdrop, the price of diesel overtook that of jet fuel this week, LSEG data showed.

Diesel prices have resumed their rally in recent weeks amid an impasse in Iran peace talks and Russian export disruptions, and are now only 14% below their April peaks. Jet fuel prices, which have also risen in recent weeks, are meanwhile 25% below their March records.

"A brief period of cautious optimism for refined product markets has been quickly overtaken by renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, the collapse of Russian product supply and a diesel exports ban," said Karim Fawaz of S&P Global Energy.

WEAKENING JET DEMAND LIKELY WEIGHS ON PRICES, ANALYST SAYS

In a further sign of jet's relative weakness, it has dropped against the price of gasoil futures - the benchmark against which it is priced in Europe.

The price assessment of a jet cargo coming into Europe stood at a discount of $24 a metric ton to gasoil futures on August 10, according to LSEG.

This is the widest discount since July 2025, according to LSEG and Argus Media. At the height of the Iran war in March, LSEG and Argus assessed jet's premium at more than $500 a barrel. Weakening jet demand after the summer travel seasonal high and the expectation of higher European imports are likely weighing on prices, said Jay Maroo, analyst at Sparta Commodities.

 

 

 

 


Türkiye Central Bank Raises End-2026 Inflation Forecast to 28%, Leaves Target Unchanged

 Stray cats wait next to a fisherman at Karakoy sea promenade in Istanbul, Türkiye, Wednesday, June 24, 2026. (AP)
Stray cats wait next to a fisherman at Karakoy sea promenade in Istanbul, Türkiye, Wednesday, June 24, 2026. (AP)
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Türkiye Central Bank Raises End-2026 Inflation Forecast to 28%, Leaves Target Unchanged

 Stray cats wait next to a fisherman at Karakoy sea promenade in Istanbul, Türkiye, Wednesday, June 24, 2026. (AP)
Stray cats wait next to a fisherman at Karakoy sea promenade in Istanbul, Türkiye, Wednesday, June 24, 2026. (AP)

Türkiye's central bank raised its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 to 28% from 26% but left its interim inflation target for the same period at 24%, Governor Fatih Karahan said on Thursday.

Presenting the central bank's quarterly inflation report ‌in Istanbul, Karahan said ‌the bank kept ‌its ⁠interim inflation target for ⁠end-2027 steady at 15% and the interim target for end-2028 stayed at 9%.

"The CBRT will ensure the tightness required by the projected disinflation path in line with ⁠the interim targets," Karahan said.

He said ‌the upward ‌revision of the end-2026 forecast was "driven ‌by the increase in the ‌assumption for Turkish lira-denominated import prices in view of the developments in prices of diesel oil, natural gas, and some ‌other commodities".

Last month, the central bank left its key interest ⁠rate ⁠at 37%, as expected, keeping borrowing costs unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting as it monitors the inflationary impact of the Iran war.

Turkish consumer price inflation rose to 1.78% month-on-month in July while annual inflation dipped slightly from a month earlier to 31.75%.


UK Economy Slows Amid Political Unrest, Middle East War

A person cycles through parched parkland in Birmingham, Britain, 13 August 2026. (EPA)
A person cycles through parched parkland in Birmingham, Britain, 13 August 2026. (EPA)
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UK Economy Slows Amid Political Unrest, Middle East War

A person cycles through parched parkland in Birmingham, Britain, 13 August 2026. (EPA)
A person cycles through parched parkland in Birmingham, Britain, 13 August 2026. (EPA)

Britain's economy slowed in the second quarter, the national statistics office reported Thursday, saying that output remained "robust" despite domestic political unrest and fallout from the US-Iran war.

Gross domestic product increased 0.4 percent in the April-June period after GDP expansion of 0.6 percent in the first quarter, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in a statement.

Keir Starmer resigned as British prime minister in late June and was replaced around one month later by Andy Burnham, as the Labour government was overtaken in opinion polls by the hard-right party Reform UK.

Following Thursday's data, the country's new finance minister, John Healey, said that under Burnham, Labour was a "hands-on government, putting British interests first -- giving breathing space to those feeling the strain, making our country more resilient and bringing hope back".

Struggling already with elevated inflation, millions of Britons have seen their situation worsen after the US-Iran war sent energy costs soaring.

"I know people are worried about the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on their cost of living, which has been too high for too long and it has added pressure on British businesses," Healey added in a statement.

- World Cup boost -

The latest GDP data showed that output from the services sector grew 0.5 percent in the second quarter, and construction also expanded while production flattened.

"Growth (overall) slowed in the second quarter of the year, following a strong start to 2026, but remained relatively robust," said ONS director of economic statistics, Liz McKeown.

"Services were once again the main driver of growth," she added.

The second quarter had a strong finish, growing 0.3 percent in June after zero expansion in May and a slight dip in April, the ONS said.

It cited the recent football World Cup "as a reason for an increase in turnover in June... by businesses in industries such as wholesale, food and beverage serving activities, publishing activities, television production and advertising".

But Stuart Morrison, research manager at the British Chambers of Commerce, said in a statement that "the headline figures shouldn't disguise the cocktail of cost pressures choking long-term business growth".

He said Healey's first budget, due October 28, "must be a game changer for stronger, sustainable growth", adding that Britain needed "measures that boost trade, investment and productivity".

Burnham has so far concentrated on easing the cost of living for households, with tax on their electricity bills set to be removed this winter.

The Bank of England recently warned that British inflation was set to rise as the Middle East war keeps energy prices high.