Saudi Arabia Restructures Debt Maturities to Bolster Fiscal Sustainability, Develop the Sukuk Market

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (Reuters)
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (Reuters)
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Saudi Arabia Restructures Debt Maturities to Bolster Fiscal Sustainability, Develop the Sukuk Market

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (Reuters)
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia is continuing to enhance the management of its public debt by restructuring the maturities of government sukuk, a move that experts say will strengthen fiscal sustainability and improve the efficiency of the government's debt portfolio.

Mohammed Al-Farraj, senior head of asset management at Arbah Capital, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the early repurchase and issuance of new, longer-dated sukuk represented the application of global best practices in sovereign debt management, aimed at reducing refinancing risk and building a more balanced debt structure.

The National Debt Management Center said it had completed the early repurchase of part of the Finance Ministry’s outstanding sukuk maturing between 2026 and 2030, with a total value of about 17.1 billion riyals ($4.6 billion).

The repurchase was carried out alongside a new sukuk issuance worth about 17.2 billion riyals ($4.6 billion).

The center said the initiative formed part of its efforts to deepen the domestic debt market and strengthen the management of government debt obligations and future maturities, supporting the kingdom’s public finances over the medium and long term.

The new sukuk were issued across five tranches.

The first tranche, worth about 1.45 billion riyals ($387 million), matures in 2031, while the second, valued at 1.62 billion riyals ($432 million), matures in 2033.

The third and largest tranche was worth about 10.55 billion riyals ($2.8 billion) and matures in 2036. The fourth, valued at 1.74 billion riyals ($464 million), matures in 2039, while the fifth, worth 1.80 billion riyals ($480 million), matures in 2041.

Al-Farraj said the early repurchase would reduce refinancing risk by easing the concentration of obligations in particular years and redistributing them over a longer time horizon.

That would give the Finance Ministry greater flexibility in managing cash flows and funding needs, while limiting the risk of having to refinance large amounts at a single point in time, particularly if borrowing costs rise in the future, he said.

Replacing shorter-dated sukuk with securities extending to 2041 would also increase the average maturity of government debt and signal a more proactive approach to managing liabilities, Al-Farraj said.

He added that the move would reinforce confidence among investors and credit rating agencies in the kingdom’s ability to manage its debt efficiently.

The transaction also carries broader implications for the domestic debt market.

Al-Farraj said the longer-dated issuances would help complete the government sukuk yield curve, providing an important pricing benchmark for debt issued by companies and other government entities and improving the efficiency of Saudi Arabia’s debt instruments market.

Sukuk with maturities of more than 15 years would also provide instruments better suited to institutional investors such as pension funds and insurance companies, which seek long-term assets that match their future liabilities, he said.

That, in turn, would support market depth and liquidity.

Al-Farraj said the transaction was part of Saudi Arabia’s efforts to consolidate the domestic sukuk market’s position as one of the largest debt markets in the region.

It also supports the objectives of the Financial Sector Development Program and Saudi Vision 2030 by contributing to a deeper and more efficient debt market.

Al-Farraj described the exercise as a “re-engineering” of the government debt portfolio, combining a smoother maturity profile, lower refinancing risk and stronger fiscal sustainability with the continued development of the domestic sukuk market for the benefit of the government, private sector and investors over the long term.



World Food Prices Near Four-year High in September

A street food vendor pushes a cart along the road in Ho Chi Minh City on October 2, 2026. (Photo by Nhac NGUYEN / AFP)
A street food vendor pushes a cart along the road in Ho Chi Minh City on October 2, 2026. (Photo by Nhac NGUYEN / AFP)
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World Food Prices Near Four-year High in September

A street food vendor pushes a cart along the road in Ho Chi Minh City on October 2, 2026. (Photo by Nhac NGUYEN / AFP)
A street food vendor pushes a cart along the road in Ho Chi Minh City on October 2, 2026. (Photo by Nhac NGUYEN / AFP)

World food prices rose in September to their highest in nearly four years as logistics disruptions and weather concerns affected crop markets, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said.

Fears about a severe El Nino weather pattern have pushed international sugar prices to an 18-month high, while a war-related collapse in Black Sea trade pushed wheat futures to a three-year peak early last month.

The FAO ⁠Food Price Index, ⁠which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, averaged 136.0 points, up from a revised 134.0 for August and the highest reading since November 2022.

FAO's benchmarks for cereal, sugar and vegetable oil ⁠prices all rose last month, though meat and dairy quotations fell.

“We are seeing a persistent and increasingly broad-based build up in global commodity prices, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea combine with climate shocks, putting pressure on energy, transport and key food commodities,” FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said, according to Reuters.

“If sustained, these pressures will soon pass through to consumer food ⁠prices, especially ⁠in food and energy import-dependent countries,” he said in a statement.

In a separate report, FAO kept its forecast for global cereal production in 2026 almost unchanged at 2.979 billion metric tons, 2.1% below the previous year's peak but still the second-largest harvest on record.

FAO cut its forecast for world cereal trade in 2026/27 by 0.7% from September, citing lower wheat and maize export expectations due largely to constrained Black Sea shipping routes.


Airbus Delivered Around 72 Aircraft in September

The logo of Airbus is picuted at the Airbus facility in Montoir-de-Bretagne near Saint-Nazaire, France, March 4, 2022. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe
The logo of Airbus is picuted at the Airbus facility in Montoir-de-Bretagne near Saint-Nazaire, France, March 4, 2022. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe
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Airbus Delivered Around 72 Aircraft in September

The logo of Airbus is picuted at the Airbus facility in Montoir-de-Bretagne near Saint-Nazaire, France, March 4, 2022. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe
The logo of Airbus is picuted at the Airbus facility in Montoir-de-Bretagne near Saint-Nazaire, France, March 4, 2022. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe

Airbus delivered around 72 aircraft in September, almost matching 73 a year earlier, industry sources said.

Airbus declined comment on the provisional delivery total ahead of a monthly industrial bulletin due ‌on October ‌8, said Reuters.

If confirmed, the ‌tally ⁠would be higher ⁠than the visible total of tracked deliveries estimated by analysts in the mid to high 60s. Jefferies analysts ⁠estimated 68 deliveries.

The pick-up ‌in ‌pace follows concerns about ‌the effect of delays in ‌the system including any impact from the latest industrial glitch involving parts for ‌the A321neo, as well as existing shortages of ⁠engines ⁠and other parts.

Commercial CEO Lars Wagner said this week that he was "very confident" of meeting the full-year target of around 870 jets, which Airbus has informally defined as 850 to 890.


Saudi Arabia Heads Into 2027 With Strong Recovery, More Diverse Growth Drivers

Saudi Arabia’s financial district (SPA) 
Saudi Arabia’s financial district (SPA) 
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Saudi Arabia Heads Into 2027 With Strong Recovery, More Diverse Growth Drivers

Saudi Arabia’s financial district (SPA) 
Saudi Arabia’s financial district (SPA) 

Saudi Arabia enters 2027 with a markedly different fiscal outlook, forecasting a strong economic recovery after a contraction linked to lower oil production, while its expanding non-oil economy increasingly cushions the impact of oil-related shocks.

The preliminary budget statement projects real GDP growth of 12.8 percent in 2027, following an expected contraction of 3.6 percent in 2026, alongside a budget deficit estimated at 3.6 percent of GDP.

The government plans to maintain investment spending and diversify growth sources while gradually reducing the deficit in the coming years.

Economists told Asharq Al-Awsat that the figures reflect a gradual shift in growth and revenue sources. Oil remains central to public finances and exports, but the economy now has a broader range of activities capable of generating growth and income.

Saudi Arabia projects expenditure of SAR 1.392 trillion ($371 billion) in its 2027 budget, against revenue of SAR 1.202 trillion ($320.5 billion), leaving an anticipated deficit of SAR 190 billion ($50.5 billion).

Three Revenue Scenarios

The preliminary budget outlines three revenue scenarios for 2027-2029, with annual government spending held at approximately SAR 1.392 trillion.

Under the baseline projection, revenue is estimated at SAR 1.202 trillion, producing a deficit of around SAR 191 billion. The higher-revenue estimate puts receipts at SAR 1.261 trillion and the deficit at SAR 132 billion, while the lower-revenue projection assumes revenue of SAR 1.134 trillion and a shortfall of SAR 259 billion.

The estimates reflect a broad range of possible fiscal outcomes amid uncertainty surrounding oil markets and the global economy. They also illustrate the government’s ability to accommodate revenue fluctuations through changes in the deficit rather than tying expenditure entirely to short-term shifts in revenue.

Spending and Fiscal Sustainability

Abdullah Almeer, assistant professor of economics at King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, said maintaining elevated spending despite the projected deficit reflects a policy of using public finances to support growth and fund structural economic transformation.

He described the anticipated deficit of 3.6 percent of GDP as part of an effort to balance economic stimulus with fiscal sustainability, emphasizing that its implications depend on the nature of the expenditure it finances.

Infrastructure and development investment could strengthen growth and expand non-oil activities, he explained, whereas higher unproductive recurrent spending could increase debt burdens, financing costs and pressure on reserves.

Almeer estimated Saudi public debt at 30-33 percent of GDP, noting the government’s continued use of domestic and international financing instruments, including sukuk and bonds.

Expanding Non-Oil Revenue

Almeer highlighted the growing contribution of non-oil revenue, which covered approximately 17 percent of total expenditure in 2015, compared with 36 percent in 2025.

He attributed the shift to economic expansion, private-sector growth and investment in infrastructure, tourism and digital transformation.

Investments associated with the National Investment Strategy, the expansion of the Public Investment Fund and the Regional Headquarters Program have also stimulated non-oil sectors, he noted, estimating that more than 700 international companies have established regional headquarters in Riyadh.

External Risks

Almeer identified regional and global geopolitical developments as major risks to the 2027 budget, particularly through their effects on oil and commodity markets and shipping.

A global slowdown accompanied by higher energy prices could weaken demand for Saudi oil and non-oil exports, while persistent inflation and elevated interest rates could increase private-sector financing costs.

Higher global commodity, service and shipping costs could also feed into domestic prices. Saudi inflation is projected at 2.1 percent in 2026.

Almeer identified real non-oil GDP growth as the key indicator to monitor in 2027, alongside inflation, non-oil revenue coverage of expenditure, Saudi unemployment, private-sector contributions to GDP and the debt-to-GDP ratio.

Economic Transformation

Financial and Economic adviser Hussein Alattas said the 2027 budget figures demonstrate a focus on sustaining economic growth alongside fiscal sustainability, rather than merely controlling expenditure or reducing the deficit.

He stressed that continued investment in economic transformation projects aims to strengthen the private sector and increase non-oil contributions while maintaining spending levels capable of supporting growth.

Alattas further highlighted the rise in non-oil revenue from approximately SAR 166 billion in 2015 to SAR 505 billion in 2025 as evidence of structural economic change rather than a temporary increase in receipts.

The expansion of private enterprise, tourism, services, industry, technology and investment has broadened the economy’s capacity to generate income, he underlined.

Oil Remains a Pillar

Alattas argued that nearly a decade after the launch of Vision 2030, economic diversification has moved beyond planning and initiatives to produce tangible results in the economy and public finances.

However, reduced sensitivity to oil-price fluctuations does not mean oil has lost its importance. Crude remains a major source of government revenue and exports, leaving public finances exposed to changes in prices and production.

He explained that the difference lies in the expanding non-oil economy and its growing ability to generate income and growth.

The essence of Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation, Alattas concluded, is not abandoning oil but building an economy capable of continuing to grow and expand under varying oil-market conditions.