Oil Rises on Concerns over Strait of Hormuz Reopening Plans

The scale of selling in oil markets appears somewhat excessive given the persistent high uncertainty in the Middle East (Reuters)
The scale of selling in oil markets appears somewhat excessive given the persistent high uncertainty in the Middle East (Reuters)
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Oil Rises on Concerns over Strait of Hormuz Reopening Plans

The scale of selling in oil markets appears somewhat excessive given the persistent high uncertainty in the Middle East (Reuters)
The scale of selling in oil markets appears somewhat excessive given the persistent high uncertainty in the Middle East (Reuters)

Oil extended gains on Friday amid further concerns around the opening of the Strait of Hormuz as Iran, working with Oman, suggested banning vessels deemed hostile from the strait and heavily fining those which violated the proposed rules.

Brent crude futures rose 80 cents, or 0.97%, to $83.29 a barrel by 0303 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate futures rose 64 cents, or 0.83%, to $77.93. Oil futures settled up at over $3 a barrel on Thursday as Iran reviewed a bill to ban US and Israeli vessels from the Strait of Hormuz where roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transmitted before the war ‌began at ‌the end of February.

Prices fell earlier in the week as ‌a ⁠possible solution to ⁠the ongoing conflict looked more likely but benchmark Brent breached $80 on Thursday after falling below that for the first time since July 13. Both benchmarks were headed for a weekly loss of about 8%.

Analysts said the events that have unfolded this week signaled that the hostilities between Iran and the US are not yet over. "The proximate trigger is more specific, it's (oil prices) reacting to Iran's published draft plan for Hormuz ⁠transit conditions, which would ban US and Israeli vessels and ‌require other 'hostile' countries to pay compensation before passage," said ‌Lin Ye, vice president of commodities market – oil at consultancy Rystad Energy.

"That's not the market ‌pricing in a bad deal, it's pricing in confirmation that whatever emerges is ‌a managed/conditional corridor, not a restoration of normal flow," Ye added.

An Iranian lawmaker said a parliamentary committee is reviewing a preliminary bill to ban US, Israeli and other vessels deemed hostile from the Strait of Hormuz, and fine violators of the proposed restrictions up to ‌20% of cargo value, according to Fars news agency.

Iran is seeking fees of between 5% and 7% of the price ⁠of cargoes from ships ⁠using the strait, according to the senior Iranian official. Oman is discussing fees of around 3%, while Washington wants no fees at all.

Four industry sources have said the proposed deal is not easily workable due to US sanctions and restrictive insurance clauses on any payments.

"This week’s signals on a potential Iran-Oman transit deal have driven a roller-coaster ride in market sentiment but as of now, (it is) left it in the dark as to what needs to happen for the agreement to be clinched," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

US President Donald Trump on Thursday told reporters that he believed the war would be over soon.



Port Security and Trade Continuity: A New Formula for Saudi Competitiveness

A panel discussion featuring Professor Waheed Sami Abu Shanab (Conference)
A panel discussion featuring Professor Waheed Sami Abu Shanab (Conference)
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Port Security and Trade Continuity: A New Formula for Saudi Competitiveness

A panel discussion featuring Professor Waheed Sami Abu Shanab (Conference)
A panel discussion featuring Professor Waheed Sami Abu Shanab (Conference)

Port competitiveness is no longer just about handling more ships and containers. Keeping trade moving and infrastructure secure against physical and cyber threats has become just as critical, as ports grow more reliant on digital systems and supply chains become increasingly complex.

The economic fallout from port disruptions and their impact on global trade took center stage at a session titled "Securing Infrastructure" during the Saudi Maritime and Logistics Congress 2026, which opened Wednesday in Jeddah with maritime and infrastructure security experts in attendance.

Discussions focused on threats facing ports and shipping companies, particularly cyberattacks capable of crippling operations and disrupting trade, and the need to strengthen port readiness to keep services running and limit economic losses.

Professor Waheed Sami Abu Shanab, a professor of marine engineering at King Abdulaziz University's Faculty of Maritime Studies, said Saudi ports now face a challenge that goes beyond expanding capacity: withstanding disruptions while keeping trade flowing at the lowest possible cost.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the session, Abu Shanab said Saudi Arabia's ports on the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf gave the kingdom a strategic advantage as international trade routes shift. But making the most of that position requires greater investment in operational resilience, logistics connectivity and cybersecurity.

Investments top $3.7 billion

The challenges come as Saudi Arabia ramps up investment in port infrastructure. Its ports now have 34 logistics centers, including 17 at Jeddah Islamic Port, backed by investments exceeding 14 billion riyals ($3.7 billion), alongside projects to upgrade container terminals and boost handling capacity.

Abu Shanab said the investments include more than 2 billion riyals to develop a container terminal at Jubail Port and an initial 1.6 billion riyals for a fourth container terminal at Jeddah Islamic Port. Other projects involve upgrading cargo-handling equipment and expanding the use of modern operating systems.

He said future investment must focus on operational efficiency, reserve capacity and stronger links between ports, roads, railways and logistics hubs to absorb sudden surges in shipping volumes and redirect cargo when routes are disrupted.

Abu Shanab floated a preliminary proposal for an additional 10 billion to 20 billion riyals in investment over five years to strengthen strategic ports' readiness.

He stressed that the figure was a proposed planning scenario, not an official assessment of the sector's needs or an approved budget.

Cyberattacks threaten trade beyond ports

Abu Shanab warned that growing reliance on digital systems exposes ports to cyber threats whose economic impact could ripple through factories, markets and supply chains.

He pointed to the 2017 cyberattack on global shipping group Maersk, which the company estimated cost it between $200 million and $300 million after widespread disruption to its operations and systems.

A failure of digital systems managing containers, vessel schedules and cranes could leave cargo stranded, drive up delay and insurance costs, and undermine shipping companies' commitments and customer confidence, he said.

To illustrate the potential costs, Abu Shanab offered a hypothetical scenario: a delay affecting 5,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), each incurring an additional 1,000 riyals in costs, would generate a direct bill of 5 million riyals before indirect losses.

He stressed that the calculation did not reflect actual losses at Saudi ports but illustrated the potential cost of disruptions. Investing in prevention and business continuity, he argued, could be cheaper than shutting down a strategic port.

Competitiveness goes beyond handling fees

Abu Shanab said regional ports should be judged not simply by their handling charges but by the total cost of getting goods from ships to markets, including customs clearance, storage, inland transport and schedule reliability.

Saudi ports overseen by the Saudi Ports Authority handled about 8.3 million TEUs in 2025, up 10.58% from a year earlier, highlighting growing activity and the need to expand capabilities without compromising service efficiency.

Artificial intelligence could help schedule vessel arrivals and allocate berths, while upgraded handling equipment could cut waiting times and fuel, storage and transportation costs, making services more reliable for shipping lines, he said.

"The most competitive port is not necessarily the one with the lowest fees, but the one offering the lowest total logistics cost, the greatest reliability and the fastest access to markets," Abu Shanab said.

Simulating crises before they strike

Abu Shanab called for a national simulation model using digital twins and artificial intelligence to test how ports and supply chains would respond to facility shutdowns or shifting maritime routes, and measure the time and cost of restoring operations.

He also urged stronger protection for critical infrastructure, including submarine cables, energy and telecommunications facilities, alongside improved vessel monitoring systems, disaster recovery centers and backup operating plans to keep essential services running.

Saudi Arabia's ports on two coastlines, coupled with expanding logistics services and transport networks, offer a foundation for more reliable supply chains, he said. But realizing that potential depends on matching existing investments with operational and technological readiness.

Protecting maritime infrastructure, Abu Shanab concluded, is no longer a standalone security or technical concern. It is central to port competitiveness and Saudi Arabia's ability to keep trade flowing, attract shipping lines and secure long-term investment.


Türkiye Cuts Key Interest Rate to 36%, First Cut in Months

Central Bank of Türkiye (Official Website)
Central Bank of Türkiye (Official Website)
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Türkiye Cuts Key Interest Rate to 36%, First Cut in Months

Central Bank of Türkiye (Official Website)
Central Bank of Türkiye (Official Website)

Türkiye's central bank cut its key interest rate on Thursday to 36 percent in the first cut in nine months, pointing to a recent slowdown in inflation.

At a policy meeting, the bank "decided to reduce the policy interest rate ... from 37 percent to 36 percent," it said in a statement.

It was the first cut since January when the bank cut the key rate from 38 to 37 percent, a rate which it held until Thursday's meeting.

"Despite monthly fluctuations, recent inflation figures and leading indicators confirm the downward trend," a bank statement said.

"Data on economic activity and the limited impact of supply shocks on domestic prices suggest that the weak trend in domestic demand continues," it added.

However, ongoing geopolitical tensions were keeping energy prices high, which could push inflation higher, it warned, saying the effects of such geopolitical developments "are being closely monitored".

Türkiye's annual inflation rate eased to 29.7 percent in September from 31.5 percent in August - the first time it had fallen below 30 percent in nearly five years, official figures showed.

At the time, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said it was at its lowest level since November 2021. "Disinflation is spreading across the board, excluding transportation," he wrote on X.

The official figures are disputed by the ENAG group of independent economists that publishes its own data, which said its figures showed year-on-year inflation stood at 46.6 percent in September.

 

 

 

 


Saudi Stock Market Drops 2.3% to Lowest Close Since 2021

A person stands in front of a screen showing falling stock prices (Reuters)
A person stands in front of a screen showing falling stock prices (Reuters)
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Saudi Stock Market Drops 2.3% to Lowest Close Since 2021

A person stands in front of a screen showing falling stock prices (Reuters)
A person stands in front of a screen showing falling stock prices (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index ended Thursday's session down 2.3 percent, shedding 231 points to close at 9,696, its lowest closing level since 2021, with total trading turnover reaching approximately SAR 4.9 billion.

The Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) fluctuated between an intraday low of 9,640 points and a high of 9,888 points.

Thursday's decline brought the index's weekly losses to more than 400 points, or 4.1 percent, marking its eighth consecutive week of declines.

Most stocks fell during the session, led by Saudi National Bank, which dropped more than 5 percent to SAR 34.62, with approximately 9 million shares traded.

Saudi Aramco and Al Rajhi Bank each declined 1 percent, closing at SAR 25.40 and SAR 59.80, respectively, while Maaden fell 5 percent to SAR 55.90.

Shares of Retal, Al Yamamah Steel, East Pipes, Jahez, Gulf Training and Saudi Steel Pipe ended the session with losses ranging from 5 to 9 percent.

Meanwhile, Electrical Industries, Abo Moati, Umm Al-Qura Cement, Saleh Al-Rashed, Wafrah, Saudi Vitrified Clay Pipe and Watani Iron Steel each fell 10 percent.

On the upside, Al-Etihad rose 10 percent to SAR 6.16, followed by JAZADCO with gains exceeding 9 percent. Shares of Al Arabia, UCIC and Saudi Kayan advanced between 1 and 3 percent.