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Nike, Lululemon Sink as Annual Forecasts Disappoint

The Nike swoosh logo is seen outside the store on 5th Ave in New York, New York, US, March 19, 2019. (Reuters)
The Nike swoosh logo is seen outside the store on 5th Ave in New York, New York, US, March 19, 2019. (Reuters)
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Nike, Lululemon Sink as Annual Forecasts Disappoint

The Nike swoosh logo is seen outside the store on 5th Ave in New York, New York, US, March 19, 2019. (Reuters)
The Nike swoosh logo is seen outside the store on 5th Ave in New York, New York, US, March 19, 2019. (Reuters)

Nike shares tumbled 8% on Friday after the Air Jordan maker warned of lower sales in its first half as it replaces older styles with trendier sneakers, while Lululemon Athletica sank 17% as demand waned for its premium athleisure.

While Lululemon's gloomy forecast spotlights the challenges for retailers as customers reduce discretionary spending due to sticky inflation, Nike's projection signals its efforts to battle newer brands for market share.

"One of the things that both Lululemon and Nike have enjoyed over the last few years is premium prices on their premium products and that seems to be in doubt at this point in time," said Brian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, which has a stake in Nike.

Nike plans to trim supplies of classic shoes such as its Air Force 1 and Pegasus, financial chief Matt Friend said on Thursday, to focus on reviving its running shoe category, as well as upcoming launches including its Air Max Dn.

Meanwhile, Lululemon reported a 9% growth in North American sales for the fourth quarter, a far cry from the 29% jump a year earlier and a 12% gain in the prior quarter.

"This level of deceleration (in sales growth) in the US does raise some concerns on market share opportunity," Piper Sandler analyst Abbie Zvejnieks said in a note. The brokerage trimmed its PT to $525 from $560.

Lululemon was set for its worst day in more than four years, while Nike shares touched a six-month low on Friday. Peer Under Armour fell 3%.

At least 12 brokerages cut their PTs on Nike following the results, pulling down the median target to $116 from $126 in December. Nike's shares were last trading at $93.50.

"Until the market sees evidence that new products can grow and scale sufficiently, we think this will remain a hotly-debated stock that will remain stuck in the mud," said Wedbush analyst Tom Nikic.

Nike's forward price-to-earnings multiple, a common benchmark for valuing stocks, is 24.84, compared to 52.08 and 15.31 for Adidas and Puma, respectively.

At least 17 brokerages cut their PTs on Lululemon.

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Fashion

LVMH Shares Drop after Missing Second-quarter Estimates

A man walks past a shop of fashion house Dior in Paris, France, April 15, 2024. REUTERS/Manon Cruz/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
A man walks past a shop of fashion house Dior in Paris, France, April 15, 2024. REUTERS/Manon Cruz/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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LVMH Shares Drop after Missing Second-quarter Estimates

A man walks past a shop of fashion house Dior in Paris, France, April 15, 2024. REUTERS/Manon Cruz/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
A man walks past a shop of fashion house Dior in Paris, France, April 15, 2024. REUTERS/Manon Cruz/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

Shares in LVMH (LVMH.PA) fell as much as 6.5% in early Wednesday trade and were on track for their biggest one-day drop since October 2023 after second-quarter sales growth at the French luxury goods giant missed analysts' consensus estimate.

The world's biggest luxury group said late Tuesday its quarterly sales rose 1% year on year to 20.98 billion euros ($22.76 billion), undershooting the 21.6 billion expected on average by analysts polled by LSEG.

At 1000 GMT, LVMH's shares were down 4.5%.

The earnings miss weighed on other luxury stocks, with Hermes (HRMS.PA), down around 2% and Kering (PRTP.PA), off 3%.

Kering is scheduled to report second-quarter sales after the market close and Hermes reports on Thursday, Reuters reported.

Jittery investors are looking for evidence that the industry will pick up from a recent slowdown, as inflation-hit shoppers hold off from splashing out on designer fashion.

JPMorgan analyst Chiara Battistini cut full year profit forecasts by 2-3% for the group, citing softer trends at LVMH's fashion and leather goods division, home to Louis Vuitton and Dior.

"The soft print is likely to add to ongoing investors’ concerns on the sector more broadly in our view, confirming that even best-in-class players like LVMH cannot be immune from the challenging backdrop," said Battistini in a note to clients.

The weakness of the yen, which has prompted a flood of Chinese shoppers to Japan seeking bargains on luxury goods, added pressure to margins, another source of concern.

Equita cut 2024 sales estimates for LVMH by 3% - attributing 1% to currency fluctuations - and lowered its second half organic sales estimate to 7% growth from 10% growth previously.

The lack of visibility for the second half beyond the easing of comparative figures - as the Chinese post-pandemic lockdown bounce tapered off a year ago - is unlikely to improve investor sentiment to the luxury sector, Citi analyst Thomas Chauvet said in an email to clients.

"No miracle with the luxury bellwether; sector likely to remain out of favour," he wrote.

Jefferies analysts said the miss came as investors eye Chinese shoppers for their potential to "resume their pre-COVID role as the locomotive of industry growth and debate when Western consumers will have fully digested their COVID overspend".

LVMH shares have been volatile since the luxury slowdown emerged, and are down about 20% over the past year, with middle-class shoppers in China, the world's No. 2 economy, a key focus as they rein in purchases at home amid a property slump and job insecurity.

LVMH offered some reassurance, with finance chief Jean-Jacques Guiony telling analysts during a call on Tuesday that Chinese customers were "holding up quite well," while business with US and European customers was "slightly better".