Türkiye’s Kilicdaroglu May Struggle to Close Gap on Erdogan

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Türkiye’s main opposition alliance, speaks onstage at the Republican People's Party (CHP) headquarters on election night in Ankara, Türkiye, May 15, 2023. (Reuters)
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Türkiye’s main opposition alliance, speaks onstage at the Republican People's Party (CHP) headquarters on election night in Ankara, Türkiye, May 15, 2023. (Reuters)
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Türkiye’s Kilicdaroglu May Struggle to Close Gap on Erdogan

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Türkiye’s main opposition alliance, speaks onstage at the Republican People's Party (CHP) headquarters on election night in Ankara, Türkiye, May 15, 2023. (Reuters)
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Türkiye’s main opposition alliance, speaks onstage at the Republican People's Party (CHP) headquarters on election night in Ankara, Türkiye, May 15, 2023. (Reuters)

With the Turkish economy in trouble and six political parties campaigning for him, Kemal Kilicdaroglu had been oozing confidence ahead of elections on Sunday, predicting victory and a new "spring" after Recep Tayyip Erdogan's two decades in power.

But his hopes of leading Türkiye into a new era suffered a setback as the first round of the presidential election showed Erdogan with a lead that may prove difficult to overcome ahead of a runoff on May 28.

The head of Türkiye’s biggest opposition party, the mild-mannered Kilicdaroglu has carried the hopes of those Turkish voters desperate to see an end to Erdogan's increasingly authoritarian rule.

While lacking Erdogan's charisma, he has sought to rally voters with an inclusive platform and promises of a democratic reset for the country of 85 million, including a return to the parliamentary system of government and independence for a judiciary critics say Erdogan has used to crack down on dissent.

He has also promised an end to the unorthodox economic policies which Erdogan's critics say are to blame for dizzying inflation and a cost-of-living crisis that has sapped his popularity, and somewhat smoother relations with the West.

Kilicdaroglu, 74, has shown no sign of yielding following Sunday's first round results, accusing Erdogan's AK Party of interfering with the counting and reporting of results. The AK Party has denied this.

"Despite all his slanders and insults, Erdogan did not get the result he expected," Kilicdaroglu told supporters as the results came in.

"The election is not won on the balcony," he said, referring to a celebratory address Erdogan delivered to his supporters from his party's headquarters.

"If our nation says there's to be a 'second round', so be it. We will definitely win this election in the second round. Everyone will see it."

No clear vision?

Erdogan led with 49.5% of the vote on Sunday - short of the 50% needed to win in the first round. Kilicdaroglu got 45%.

Kilicdaroglu's chances may now hinge on an endorsement from Sinan Ogan, a nationalist who finished third with 5.2%.

But Ogan has said he can only support Kilicdaroglu in the runoff if he agrees to offer no concessions to the pro-Kurdish HDP party, which endorsed Kilicdaroglu for president although it is not part of the opposition alliance.

Detractors say Kilicdaroglu - who is scorned by Erdogan after suffering repeated election defeats as chair of the Republican People's Party (CHP) - lacks his opponent's power to rally audiences and fails to offer a clear vision for a post-Erdogan era.

He has been hoping to build on the opposition's 2019 triumph when the CHP defeated Erdogan's ruling AK Party in Istanbul and other big cities in local elections, thanks to support from other opposition party voters.

Kilicdaroglu sought to rally Turks of different stripes into an alliance including nationalists, Islamists, secularists and liberals. Critics have questioned whether he could hold together such an alliance in the event of victory.

Before entering politics, Kilicdaroglu worked in the finance ministry and then chaired Türkiye’s Social Insurance Institution for most of the 1990s. In speeches, Erdogan frequently disparages his performance in that role.

A former economist, he became a member of parliament in 2002 when Erdogan's AKP first swept to power, representing the center-left CHP, a party established by modern Türkiye’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk which has struggled to reach beyond its secularist grassroots toward conservatives.

However, he has spoken in recent years of a desire to heal old wounds with devout Muslims and Kurds.

Kilicdaroglu rose to prominence as the CHP's anti-graft campaigner, appearing on TV to brandish dossiers that led to high-profile resignations. A year after losing a mayoral run in Istanbul, he was elected unopposed as party leader in 2010.

His election fueled party hopes of a new start, but support for the CHP has since failed to surpass about 25%. Erdogan's AK party polled 43% in the last parliamentary elections of 2018.

Still, some view Kilicdaroglu as having quietly reformed the party and sidelined hardcore "Kemalists" espousing a rigid version of the ideas of Ataturk, while promoting members seen as more closely aligned with European social democratic values.

Critics say he has failed to bring flexibility to a static CHP and, in the end, imposed himself as presidential candidate over others who polled better head-to-head against Erdogan.

Born in the eastern Tunceli province, Kilicdaroglu is an Alevi, a minority group that follows a faith drawing on Shiite Muslim, Sufi and Anatolian folk traditions.

Nicknamed by Turkish media as "Gandhi Kemal" because of a passing resemblance with his slight, bespectacled appearance, he captured the public imagination in 2017 when he launched his 450 km "March for Justice" from Ankara to Istanbul over the arrest of a CHP deputy.



A Family, a Bride, a Domestic Worker: The Toll of Israeli Strikes on Lebanon

 Smoke billows over southern Lebanon following an Israeli strike, amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Tyre, Lebanon September 25, 2024. (Reuters)
Smoke billows over southern Lebanon following an Israeli strike, amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Tyre, Lebanon September 25, 2024. (Reuters)
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A Family, a Bride, a Domestic Worker: The Toll of Israeli Strikes on Lebanon

 Smoke billows over southern Lebanon following an Israeli strike, amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Tyre, Lebanon September 25, 2024. (Reuters)
Smoke billows over southern Lebanon following an Israeli strike, amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Tyre, Lebanon September 25, 2024. (Reuters)

Ahead of Lebanese engineer Maya Gharib's wedding planned for next month, excited relatives were arranging for her dress to be picked up.

But on Monday, 23-year-old Gharib, her two sisters and their parents were killed in an Israeli strike on their home in a suburb of the southern city of Tyre, said Gharib's brother Reda, the only surviving member of the family.

Israel says Monday's strikes targeted Hezbollah weapons. Lebanon's health ministry said the attacks left more than 550 people dead, including at least 50 children and 98 women, in Lebanon's bloodiest day since the end of the 1975-90 Civil War.

A screenshot shared with Reuters shows a message sent by a relative to the dress shop after the Gharib family died: "The bride was martyred."

"They were just sitting at home, and then the house was targeted," Reda Gharib, who moved to Senegal last year for work, told Reuters in a phone call.

The family were buried in a rushed funeral the next day, with few people in attendance due to the danger of strikes. Reda was unable to fly in as most flights had been cancelled amid ongoing Israeli attacks and rocket fire from Hezbollah.

His father was a retired veteran of Lebanon's army, a cross-sectarian force funded by the US and other countries and widely seen as source of unity in Lebanon. His sisters were all in their 20s.

"We are a nationalistic family with no party affiliation, though of course we stand with everyone who resists aggression," Reda Gharib said, noting no member of the family was a member of Hezbollah.

But he says that now, having lost his family, he wanted Hezbollah to continue fighting Israel "until victory" and not to accept any negotiations.

'INDISCRIMINATE'

Hezbollah began firing rockets at Israel on Oct. 8, the day after the Palestinian group Hamas attacked southern Israel, declaring a "support front" for Palestinians.

The clashes escalated sharply since last week, with hundreds killed and thousands injured in Lebanon as Israel wages an air campaign that has seen strikes in most parts of the country.

In the days since the chaos unleashed by the Israeli strikes on Monday, other reports have emerged of families with many members killed.

In the southern town of Hanouiyeh, an Israeli strike killed eight members of one family and a live-in domestic worker from Gambia, relatives said.

Mohammad Saksouk, whose brother Hassan was among those killed, told Reuters the strike hit a building next to the family home, which collapsed onto theirs.

He said the family had nothing to do with Hezbollah and criticized the Israelis for "indiscriminate" attacks while also questioning why Lebanon had been dragged into a battle that Hezbollah says is in support of Palestinians.

"Now, we're homeless. We are living in the streets," he said via phone from a temporary shelter. "Before, we were living completely normal lives. Who will give us back our homes?"

The victims included Hassan Saksouk, his adult children Mohammad and Mona, Mohammad's wife Fatima and their 9-month-old daughter Rima, as well as Mona's three children, all under nine years old.

Anna, the Gambian worker in her early 30s, also perished.

The coastal town of Saksakieh saw 11 civilians killed on Monday, including six women and two children, according to Mayor Ali Abbas, who said there were direct strikes on homes.

"These are civilian homes, they have nothing to do with any kind of military installation," Abbas told Reuters.