Türkiye’s Kilicdaroglu May Struggle to Close Gap on Erdogan

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Türkiye’s main opposition alliance, speaks onstage at the Republican People's Party (CHP) headquarters on election night in Ankara, Türkiye, May 15, 2023. (Reuters)
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Türkiye’s main opposition alliance, speaks onstage at the Republican People's Party (CHP) headquarters on election night in Ankara, Türkiye, May 15, 2023. (Reuters)
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Türkiye’s Kilicdaroglu May Struggle to Close Gap on Erdogan

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Türkiye’s main opposition alliance, speaks onstage at the Republican People's Party (CHP) headquarters on election night in Ankara, Türkiye, May 15, 2023. (Reuters)
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Türkiye’s main opposition alliance, speaks onstage at the Republican People's Party (CHP) headquarters on election night in Ankara, Türkiye, May 15, 2023. (Reuters)

With the Turkish economy in trouble and six political parties campaigning for him, Kemal Kilicdaroglu had been oozing confidence ahead of elections on Sunday, predicting victory and a new "spring" after Recep Tayyip Erdogan's two decades in power.

But his hopes of leading Türkiye into a new era suffered a setback as the first round of the presidential election showed Erdogan with a lead that may prove difficult to overcome ahead of a runoff on May 28.

The head of Türkiye’s biggest opposition party, the mild-mannered Kilicdaroglu has carried the hopes of those Turkish voters desperate to see an end to Erdogan's increasingly authoritarian rule.

While lacking Erdogan's charisma, he has sought to rally voters with an inclusive platform and promises of a democratic reset for the country of 85 million, including a return to the parliamentary system of government and independence for a judiciary critics say Erdogan has used to crack down on dissent.

He has also promised an end to the unorthodox economic policies which Erdogan's critics say are to blame for dizzying inflation and a cost-of-living crisis that has sapped his popularity, and somewhat smoother relations with the West.

Kilicdaroglu, 74, has shown no sign of yielding following Sunday's first round results, accusing Erdogan's AK Party of interfering with the counting and reporting of results. The AK Party has denied this.

"Despite all his slanders and insults, Erdogan did not get the result he expected," Kilicdaroglu told supporters as the results came in.

"The election is not won on the balcony," he said, referring to a celebratory address Erdogan delivered to his supporters from his party's headquarters.

"If our nation says there's to be a 'second round', so be it. We will definitely win this election in the second round. Everyone will see it."

No clear vision?

Erdogan led with 49.5% of the vote on Sunday - short of the 50% needed to win in the first round. Kilicdaroglu got 45%.

Kilicdaroglu's chances may now hinge on an endorsement from Sinan Ogan, a nationalist who finished third with 5.2%.

But Ogan has said he can only support Kilicdaroglu in the runoff if he agrees to offer no concessions to the pro-Kurdish HDP party, which endorsed Kilicdaroglu for president although it is not part of the opposition alliance.

Detractors say Kilicdaroglu - who is scorned by Erdogan after suffering repeated election defeats as chair of the Republican People's Party (CHP) - lacks his opponent's power to rally audiences and fails to offer a clear vision for a post-Erdogan era.

He has been hoping to build on the opposition's 2019 triumph when the CHP defeated Erdogan's ruling AK Party in Istanbul and other big cities in local elections, thanks to support from other opposition party voters.

Kilicdaroglu sought to rally Turks of different stripes into an alliance including nationalists, Islamists, secularists and liberals. Critics have questioned whether he could hold together such an alliance in the event of victory.

Before entering politics, Kilicdaroglu worked in the finance ministry and then chaired Türkiye’s Social Insurance Institution for most of the 1990s. In speeches, Erdogan frequently disparages his performance in that role.

A former economist, he became a member of parliament in 2002 when Erdogan's AKP first swept to power, representing the center-left CHP, a party established by modern Türkiye’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk which has struggled to reach beyond its secularist grassroots toward conservatives.

However, he has spoken in recent years of a desire to heal old wounds with devout Muslims and Kurds.

Kilicdaroglu rose to prominence as the CHP's anti-graft campaigner, appearing on TV to brandish dossiers that led to high-profile resignations. A year after losing a mayoral run in Istanbul, he was elected unopposed as party leader in 2010.

His election fueled party hopes of a new start, but support for the CHP has since failed to surpass about 25%. Erdogan's AK party polled 43% in the last parliamentary elections of 2018.

Still, some view Kilicdaroglu as having quietly reformed the party and sidelined hardcore "Kemalists" espousing a rigid version of the ideas of Ataturk, while promoting members seen as more closely aligned with European social democratic values.

Critics say he has failed to bring flexibility to a static CHP and, in the end, imposed himself as presidential candidate over others who polled better head-to-head against Erdogan.

Born in the eastern Tunceli province, Kilicdaroglu is an Alevi, a minority group that follows a faith drawing on Shiite Muslim, Sufi and Anatolian folk traditions.

Nicknamed by Turkish media as "Gandhi Kemal" because of a passing resemblance with his slight, bespectacled appearance, he captured the public imagination in 2017 when he launched his 450 km "March for Justice" from Ankara to Istanbul over the arrest of a CHP deputy.



Who is Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar?

(FILES) Yahya Sinwar attends the opening of a new mosque in Rafah town in the southern Gaza Strip on February 24, 2017. (Photo by SAID KHATIB / AFP)
(FILES) Yahya Sinwar attends the opening of a new mosque in Rafah town in the southern Gaza Strip on February 24, 2017. (Photo by SAID KHATIB / AFP)
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Who is Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar?

(FILES) Yahya Sinwar attends the opening of a new mosque in Rafah town in the southern Gaza Strip on February 24, 2017. (Photo by SAID KHATIB / AFP)
(FILES) Yahya Sinwar attends the opening of a new mosque in Rafah town in the southern Gaza Strip on February 24, 2017. (Photo by SAID KHATIB / AFP)

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, a mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel that triggered the war in Gaza, has been killed in a military operation.
His death would be a significant moment in Israel's yearlong offensive against the militant group and could complicate efforts to release dozens of hostages held in Gaza.
Sinwar became the head of Hamas after the killing of the previous leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in an explosion in Iran in July that was widely blamed on Israel.
Some things to know about Sinwar:
From refugee camp to Hamas militant Sinwar was born in 1962 in a refugee camp in the Gaza town of Khan Younis. He was an early member of Hamas, which was formed in 1987. He eventually led the group's security arm, which worked to purge it of informants for Israel.
Israel arrested him in the late 1980s and he admitted to killing 12 suspected collaborators, a role that earned him the nickname “The Butcher of Khan Younis.” He was sentenced to four life terms for offenses that included the killing of two Israeli soldiers, The Associated Press reported.
A prison leader Sinwar organized strikes in prison to improve working conditions. He also studied Hebrew and Israeli society.
He survived brain cancer in 2008 after being treated by Israeli doctors.
Sinwar was among more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners released in 2011 by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as part of an exchange for an Israeli soldier captured by Hamas in a cross-border raid.
When Sinwar returned to Gaza, he quickly rose through Hamas' leadership ranks with a reputation for ruthlessness. He is widely believed to be behind the 2016 killing of another top Hamas commander, Mahmoud Ishtewi, in an internal power struggle.
Sinwar became head of Hamas in Gaza, effectively putting him in control of the territory, and worked with Haniyeh to align the group with Iran and its proxies around the region while also building the group's military capabilities.
There is widespread evidence that Sinwar, along with Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas’ armed wing, engineered the surprise Oct. 7 attack on Israel.
The International Criminal Court’s prosecutor sought arrest warrants in May for Sinwar, Deif and Haniyeh for their alleged roles in the attack.
Israel said it killed Deif in a strike in July, while Hamas says he is still alive.
Where would this leave Hamas? Sinwar has been in hiding since the attack, and cease-fire negotiators have said it can take several days to send and receive messages from him.
Even before becoming Hamas' top leader, Sinwar was believed to have the final word on any deal to release hostages held by the militant group. Some 100 hostages remain in Gaza, around a third of whom are believed to be dead.
It's unclear who would replace Sinwar, and what that might mean for the cease-fire efforts, which sputtered to a halt in August after months of negotiations brokered by the United States, Egypt and Qatar.