Medicanes: Rare, 'Supercharging' Mediterranean Storms that Will Intensify, Suggest Expertshttps://english.aawsat.com/features/4551541-medicanes-rare-supercharging-mediterranean-storms-will-intensify-suggest-experts
Medicanes: Rare, 'Supercharging' Mediterranean Storms that Will Intensify, Suggest Experts
Heavily damaged Derna is shown on Thursday, Sept. 14, 2023, days after Storm Daniel unleashed deadly floods on the eastern Libyan city. (AFP)
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Medicanes: Rare, 'Supercharging' Mediterranean Storms that Will Intensify, Suggest Experts
Heavily damaged Derna is shown on Thursday, Sept. 14, 2023, days after Storm Daniel unleashed deadly floods on the eastern Libyan city. (AFP)
The flash flood that has killed thousands of people in Libya this week followed a "medicane", a rare but destructive weather phenomenon that scientists believe will intensify in a warming world, reported Agence France Press (AFP).
The term is an amalgamation of the words Mediterranean and hurricane. Used by scientists and weather forecasters, it is less well known to the wider public.
Medicanes are similar to hurricanes and typhoons although they can develop over cooler waters. They can also bear a physical resemblance on satellite imagery as a swirling mass of storm clouds surrounding an eye in the middle.
The Mediterranean cyclones are usually smaller and weaker than their tropical equivalents and have a smaller space in which to develop.
Their peak strength is usually the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, encompassing speeds of 119-153 kilometers per hour.
Fierce winds and rain are unleashed, with Storm Daniel dumping approximately 170 millimeters of rain in less than two days over Cyrenaica, in northern Libya, where rain is scarce during this season.
Once or twice a year
Medicanes tend to form in the autumn when the sea is warm, usually in the western Mediterranean and the region between the Ionian Sea and the North African coast, explained Suzanne Gray, a professor at the University of Reading's meteorology department.
A layer of colder air from higher altitudes forms convections with warmer air rising from the sea that converge around a center of low pressure.
Medicanes form once or twice per year on average, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
While hurricanes move from east to west, medicanes tend to go from west to east. Before striking Libya, Daniel pummeled Bulgaria, Greece and Türkiye last week.
Three medicanes occurred off Greece between 2016 and 2018, while in 2019 Spanish weather services identified one between the Balearic Islands and the Algerian coast.
A medicane packing winds of up to 120 kilometers per hour, dubbed Ianos, lashed Greece in September 2020, killing three people in the city of Karditsa and triggering floods, landslides and power cuts. The Italian Island of Sicily was also struck in 2021.
French weather monitor Meteo-France said it is difficult to work out climate signals from medicanes due to their rarity.
Experts say the warming of sea surface temperatures, driven by human-induced climate change, is going to make extreme storms more intense.
"We are confident that climate change is supercharging the rainfall associated with such storms," said University of Reading professor Liz Stephens.
Oceans have absorbed 90 percent of the excess heat produced by human activity since the dawn of the industrial age, according to scientists.
The Mediterranean reached its highest temperature on record in July as Europe baked under a series of heatwaves.
The surface waters of the eastern Mediterranean and Atlantic are two to three degrees Celsius warmer than usual, which would have turbocharged Daniel.
"The fact that Daniel could form into a medicane... is likely a result of warmer sea surface temperatures and hence man-made climate change," added climate scientist Karsten Haustein of Leipzig University in Germany.
Jamal Mustafa Recalls to Asharq Al-Awsat Years with Saddam, his Imprisonment and Executionhttps://english.aawsat.com/features/5084825-jamal-mustafa-recalls-asharq-al-awsat-years-saddam-his-imprisonment-and-execution
Jamal Mustafa Recalls to Asharq Al-Awsat Years with Saddam, his Imprisonment and Execution
Dr. Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat Editor-in-Chief Ghassan Charbel during the interview.
Dr. Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan, late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s son-in-law and second secretary, broke his silence and sat down with Asharq Al-Awsat to recall his time in prison and his years with the late president.
It’s not easy being Saddam’s son-in-law, son of his tribe and to rally the tribes to defend Baghdad only to discover that it has been occupied by the Americans, who have printed your image on playing cards and named you Iraq’s ninth most-wanted man. It’s not easy to seek safety in Syria, only to be turned away and then find yourself in prison.
It’s not easy to live in solitary confinement, and to be accused, while in prison, of leading a resistance and of sending booby-trapped cars. It’s not easy to learn while in prison that Saddam was detained by the American forces. It’s not easy to be summoned to trial in the Dujail case only to come face-to-face with Saddam himself.
It’s not easy to learn that “Mr. President” was executed at dawn on Eid al-Adha and that his corpse was strewn in front of then Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's house as he was celebrating his daughter’s wedding.
It’s not easy to learn from a judge in 2011 that there was no reason for you to remain on trial and that he was capable of releasing you in exchange for a hefty sum of dollars. Mustafa did not have that sort of money, so he was forced to remain in prison for nearly a decade before being released in 2021 due to a lack of evidence.
Weeks ago, I came across an old photo of Saddam with his whole family. Pictured were Saddam, his wife Sajidah, and his sons Uday and Qusay, daughter Raghad and her husband Hussein Kamel al-Majid, daughter Rana and her husband Saddam Kamel al-Majid, and daughter Hala and husband Mustafa. Five of the six men in the photo have been killed and only Mustafa remains.
Saddam Hussein surrounded by his family. (AFP)
He was born in Tikrit on October 1, 1964. He joined the president’s guard and was encouraged to continue his studies, earning a degree in political science. He played a major role in promoting sports and enjoyed strong ties with athletes. He was tasked with the tribe file and consequently forged extensive tis with them. He was trusted by Saddam and joined government meetings.
Mustafa was arrested on April 21, 2003, and released from al-Kadhimiya prison on June 17, 2021. He headed to Baghdad and later Erbil where he met with Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani. He then left Iraq for the Qatari capital Doha where he resides with Saddam’s widow Sajidah.
I approached Mustafa for an interview after he had shied away from the media, and he agreed to break his silence. As is tradition with tribes, he refused that I leave without a late lunch. The main meal was Habeet, the traditional Iraqi dish and Saddam’s favorite.
After leaving our meeting, I recalled what Abdul Raouf Rashid, the judge who issued the death sentence against Saddam in the Dujail case. He told me: “We acted according to the law and justice. Unfortunately, some officials turned the case into one of vengeance and gloating when they chose to execute him on Eid al-Adha. They desecrated Saddam’s corpse. Their actions are practically a gift to Saddam’s supporters who will keep his memory alive for a long time.”
I asked Mustafa about his time behind bars. He told Asharq Al-Awsat that he was on good terms with head of the Revolutionary Court Awad al-Bandar, who issued the death sentence. “He used to relay some of Saddam’s messages to me. (...) He was a good and brave man,” he said.
He recalled how he would receive cigars from Saddam that had his signature, a signal that he had received his messages. “I still have some of those cigars,” added Mustafa.
Saddam Hussein and Dr. Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan.
On Saddam’s morale during his time prison, Mustafa recalled: “The Iraqis, Arabs and Muslims know him well. They know that he was a brave and unyielding man. (...) It is no secret that he was aware that he was going to be executed. Everyone in jail was aware of this and we could not shake off the thought.”
Mustafa accused the trial of being corrupt and that any conviction could be made against Saddam to justify laying down the death penalty against him. “The trial was a farce. It was held by the Americans at Iranian orders and carried out by Iraqi agents to appease their Iranian and American masters. It was a tool to take revenge against the former regime,” stressed Mustafa.
Mustafa was with Saddam when he came under a failed assassination attempt in Dujail. “He was visiting Dujail just like any other city or village in Iraq. He met with citizens there who welcomed and celebrated his visit. He spoke to citizens and among them a woman. A sheep was slaughtered in his honor, and when we were about to get into our car, the woman splattered blood on the vehicle. We read this as a bad sign. So, we changed cars.”
“Soon after the convoy came under gunfire from gunmen hiding in nearby orchards. The president left his vehicles and several cars were damaged and people were injured. The president walked among the people to reassure them. After speaking to them, he returned to the car and headed back to the location where he had earlier delivered a speech. He delivered another speech before departing and we returned to Baghdad,” recalled Mustafa.
Saddam ordered the arrest of the suspects in the assassination attempt. “An hour after the attack Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani implied during a visit to Syria that they were behind the assassination. He said so from Damascus. This is damning evidence that Iran was behind the attack. They wanted to assassinate him. They knew that if they killed Mr. President that Iraq would fall in their hands,” he added. The suspects were eventually tried and executed.
Mustafa recalled the first day he was summoned to trial in the case. He entered the courtroom and saw Saddam there. “I remember exactly what I told him: ‘Peace be upon you, my father, father-in-law and dear leader,’” he revealed.
At the trial, Mustafa accused Iran of orchestrating several attacks in Baghdad, but the judge dismissed them, saying he was summoned to defend Saddam. Mustafa told the judge: “Mr. President is seen as a criminal by several of Iraq and the Ummah’s enemies, but he is a leader and brave son of Iraq and the Ummah.”
“You ask if I was punished for being Saddam’s son-in-law. The answer is yes. I remained in prison for 18 and a half years. Driven by spite, they only sought revenge. I paid a price and they tried to take revenge against me by keeping me in jail for so long. They came up with all sorts of charges against me, such as leading a resistance from behind bars,” continued Mustafa.
“They believed that I could have used my extensive ties to stage a coup once I was released from prison. So, they believed it was best that I remained and died there.” Mustafa was kept in solitary confinement for years. He recalled some sympathetic guards who treated him with respect because they were aware of his work in the sports sector and his vast network of relations.
Returning to Saddam, Mustafa said he met him twice while they were in prison. He recalled how painful it was to see him as he was his idol and he was surrounded by enemies on all sides. “He was a lion among them. He was firm in his principles and strove and sacrificed to uphold them.”
Dr. Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan's image on the playing cards of most-wanted Iraqis regime figures released by the US military.
Their first meeting took place in the jail and Mustafa said Saddam was in high spirits. They met the second time at court when Saddam declared that he had been tortured along with other detained leaders.
Mustafa learned of Saddam’s death when he noticed that the guards had taken away the radio the Americans had allowed them to keep so they could listen to the news. “We woke up one morning and it was gone. I also noticed a translator among our usual guard. This is a sign that something had happened,” he explained.
“Eventually we learned that Saddam was executed and martyred,” said Mustafa. “I said the following: ‘from now on Saddam will be a symbol of courage, heroism and sacrifice for all Iraqis, Arabs and Muslims. He will remain an eternal Arab leader.’ The translator translated my words to the guards, who remained silent. We then performed the prayer for the dead. Among us was Tariq Aziz, a Christian, but he also performed the prayer.”
“We were all in shock. His martyrdom was a shock to all honorable patriotic Iraqis, as well as Arabs and Muslims. He was also a great loss because he stood against the enemies. Everyone sensed his loss,” Mustafa added.
Saddam was executed on Eid al-Adha, which Mustafa said was deliberate to insult and humiliate the Arabs and Muslims.
“At the time, we heard claims that his corpse was strewn in front of Nouri al-Maliki's house. Maliki is allied to Iran. He was celebrating his daughter's wedding. The body was taken there to seal the revenge. They have never served or offered Iraq anything but revenge and destruction.”
The body was taken to Tikrit and later Al-Awja, Saddam’s birthplace, in the Salahuddin province. He was buried there and mourners from all over the world came to pay their respects. The grave remains a secret to only the most trusted people.
