US Moving Quickly to Boost Israel’s Military

In this image released by the US Department of Defense, F/A-18C Hornets assigned to the Wildcats of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 131 fly over the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) during Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 7's fly-off on July 2, 2013. (AFP photo / US Department of Defense/US Navy/Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Ryan D. McLearnon)
In this image released by the US Department of Defense, F/A-18C Hornets assigned to the Wildcats of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 131 fly over the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) during Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 7's fly-off on July 2, 2013. (AFP photo / US Department of Defense/US Navy/Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Ryan D. McLearnon)
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US Moving Quickly to Boost Israel’s Military

In this image released by the US Department of Defense, F/A-18C Hornets assigned to the Wildcats of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 131 fly over the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) during Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 7's fly-off on July 2, 2013. (AFP photo / US Department of Defense/US Navy/Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Ryan D. McLearnon)
In this image released by the US Department of Defense, F/A-18C Hornets assigned to the Wildcats of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 131 fly over the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) during Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 7's fly-off on July 2, 2013. (AFP photo / US Department of Defense/US Navy/Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Ryan D. McLearnon)

Within hours of the horrific attack by Hamas, the US began moving warships and aircraft to the region to be ready to provide Israel with whatever it needed to respond.

A second US carrier strike group departs from Norfolk, Virginia, on Friday. Scores of aircraft are heading to US military bases around the Middle East. Special operations forces are now assisting Israel's military in planning and intelligence. The first shipment of additional munitions has already arrived.

More is expected, soon. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will arrive in Israel Friday to meet with Israeli leaders to discuss what else the US can provide.

For now, the buildup reflects US concern that the deadly fighting between Hamas and Israel could escalate into a more dangerous regional conflict. So, the primary mission for those ships and warplanes is to establish a force presence that deters Hezbollah, Iran or others from taking advantage of the situation. But the forces the US sends are capable of more than that.

A look at what weapons and options the US military could provide:

WEAPONS AND SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES The US is providing some personnel and much-needed munitions to Israel. Austin announced that a small special operations cell was now assisting Israel with intelligence and planning, and providing advice and consultations to the Israeli Defense Forces on hostage recovery efforts. Those forces, however, have not been tasked with hostage rescue, which would put them on the ground fighting in the conflict. That's something the Biden administration has not approved and White House spokesman John Kirby has said the Israelis do not want.

The US is also getting US defense companies to expedite weapons orders by Israel that were already on the books. Chief among those are munitions for Israel's Iron Dome air defense system.

“We’re surging additional military assistance, including ammunition and interceptors to replenish Iron Dome,” President Joe Biden said Tuesday. “We’re going to make sure that Israel does not run out of these critical assets to defend its cities and its citizens.”

Iron Dome’s missiles target rockets that approach its cities. According to Raytheon, Israel has 10 such systems in place. Beginning with Saturday's attack, Hamas has fired more than 5,000 rockets at Israel, most of which the system has been able to intercept, according to the Israel Defense Forces.

Raytheon produces most of the missile components for Iron Dome in the US, and the Army has two systems in its stockpile.

The Iron Dome munitions the US provides to Israel will likely be above and beyond what Israel has ordered and will be part of ongoing military assistance packages. Those packages will also include small diameter bombs and JDAM kits — essentially a tail fin and navigation kit that turns a “dumb” bomb into a “smart” bomb and enables troops to guide the munition to a target, rather than simply dropping it.

NAVY SHIPS AND PLANES One of the most visible examples of the US response was the announcement just hours after the attacks that the Pentagon would redirect the Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group to sail toward Israel. The carrier had just completed an exercise with the Italian Navy when the ship with its crew of about 5,000 was ordered to quickly sail to the Eastern Mediterranean.

One week after the attacks, as Israel positioned for a major ground offensive into Gaza City, Austin announced a second carrier group would be sailing toward Israel, as he ordered the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group to join the Ford in the Eastern Mediterranean. In a statement announcing the move, Austin said he was sending the Eisenhower too “as part of our effort to deter hostile actions against Israel or any efforts toward widening this war following Hamas’s attack on Israel.”

The carriers provide a host of options. They serve as primary command and control operations centers and can conduct information warfare. They can launch and recover E2-Hawkeye surveillance planes, recognizable by their 24-foot (7-meter) diameter disc-shaped radars. The planes provide early warnings on missile launches, conduct surveillance and manage the airspace, not only detecting enemy aircraft but also directing US movements.

They also serve as a floating airbase for F-18 fighter jets that can fly intercepts or strike targets. And the carriers can flex to provide significant capabilities for humanitarian work, including onboard hospitals with ICUs, emergency rooms, medics, surgeons and doctors. They also sail with helicopters that can be used to airlift critical supplies in or victims out.

The Eisenhower had already been scheduled to deploy to the Mediterranean on a regular rotation, and the Ford is near the end of its scheduled deployment. But the Biden administration for now has decided to have both carriers there.

AIR FORCE WARPLANES The Pentagon has also ordered additional warplanes to bolster A-10, F-15 and F-16 squadrons at bases throughout the Middle East. More are to be added if needed.

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said Tuesday at an Atlantic Council event that the service was directing units that were about to come home to remain in place along with their replacements.

The US Air Force already has significant airpower in the region to conduct manned and unmanned operations, most notably in Syria where an Air Force F-16 last week was ordered to shoot down a Turkish drone that was posing a threat to US ground forces.

Kendall also said Air Force C-17s have landed in and departed from Israel since the attacks. The transport planes were picking up US military personnel who were there for a military exercise that hadn't started yet when the attacks began, the Air Force said in a statement.

Neither the Air Force nor Central Command would comment on what additional missions US airpower might take on in response to the conflict.



Qaani’s Uncertain Fate: A New Angle in the Shadow War

Ismail Qaani whispers in the ear of IRGC Commander Hossein Salami (IRNA)
Ismail Qaani whispers in the ear of IRGC Commander Hossein Salami (IRNA)
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Qaani’s Uncertain Fate: A New Angle in the Shadow War

Ismail Qaani whispers in the ear of IRGC Commander Hossein Salami (IRNA)
Ismail Qaani whispers in the ear of IRGC Commander Hossein Salami (IRNA)

There has been recently a surge of speculation about Ismail Qaani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, with reports presenting conflicting information.

Some leaks suggest Qaani may have been injured in an Israeli attack abroad or is being investigated for alleged collaboration with Israel. Iranian officials have provided little information, leaving his whereabouts uncertain and raising questions about his well-being.

Timeline of Events

Qaani was last seen on September 29 at the Lebanese Hezbollah office in Tehran, where he was offering condolences after the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Five days later, during a eulogy for Nasrallah, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei spoke in Tehran, notably without Qaani and other leaders present.

On October 6, Tasnim news agency published photos of Khamenei presenting an award to Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Aerospace Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, again without Qaani in attendance.

On October 9, Iran hinted at Qaani’s fate, stating that Khamenei would soon honor him with the same award. Tasnim reported that Qaani is in “good health.”

By October 10, numerous reports indicated that Qaani might be under investigation, deepening the confusion surrounding his situation.

Speculation Grows Around Qaani’s Status

Since Qaani’s last public appearance, speculation about his fate has intensified, with three key theories emerging by October 10.

The first theory arose immediately after Nasrallah’s assassination, claiming Qaani was either injured or killed. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) quickly denied these claims.

On October 5, Israel struck a building in the Beirut suburbs, alleging it was targeting Hashem Safieddine, Hezbollah's Executive Council chief. This led to speculation that Qaani was there and may have been harmed.

The IRGC took three days to deny these reports, with Deputy Commander Eiraj Masjedi confirming that Qaani was unharmed.

On October 10, military expert Babak Taghvaei posted on X (formerly Twitter) that Qaani was under investigation, with some reports claiming he suffered a heart attack “due to torture.”

In response, IRGC-affiliated news agencies Tasnim and Fars denied Qaani’s arrest, with Tasnim dismissing a report from “10 sources” and stating, “We can confidently say that 20 informed sources claim the ten sources are completely false.”

Confusion Surrounds Qaani's Status Amid Competing Narratives

Verifying leaks about Qaani’s status is challenging due to the IRGC’s complex media network, which shapes public opinion.

One theory suggests Tehran is shocked by the rapid loss of Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah’s leadership, leading them to believe significant intelligence breaches have occurred. As a result, they may be withholding information about Qaani’s location to protect him.

However, skepticism about Iran’s credibility has given rise to another theory: infighting within the IRGC may lead some factions to undermine Qaani’s image and distance themselves from him.

Doubts are also growing about Qaani’s ability to fill the void left by Qassem Soleimani, especially as tensions with Israel escalate and the conflict shifts to targeting Iranian-affiliated groups.

Another theory suggests that creating public speculation about Qaani’s fate could prompt Iranians to reveal his true status and location, particularly since he is reportedly on an Israeli target list.

Despite the uncertainty, Qaani’s fate won’t remain a secret for long. Iran may soon introduce new theories, especially if IRGC statements suggest that Khamenei will award Qaani the “Order of Fateh.”