Six Months into War, Sudanese Seek Refuge outside Chaotic Capital

Smoke rises over Khartoum, Sudan, on June 8, 2023, as fighting between the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces continues. (AP)
Smoke rises over Khartoum, Sudan, on June 8, 2023, as fighting between the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces continues. (AP)
TT

Six Months into War, Sudanese Seek Refuge outside Chaotic Capital

Smoke rises over Khartoum, Sudan, on June 8, 2023, as fighting between the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces continues. (AP)
Smoke rises over Khartoum, Sudan, on June 8, 2023, as fighting between the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces continues. (AP)

Six months after tensions between rival Sudanese generals ignited a devastating war, thousands lie dead, millions are displaced, and the once-thriving capital, Khartoum, is a shadow of its past glory.

When the first bombs fell on April 15, the capital's residents looked on in terror as entire neighborhoods were razed and essential services were paralyzed, exacerbating their misery.

Those who could escape the bloodshed and destruction rushed to the Red Sea coast about 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) to the east.

Port Sudan, now home to Sudan's only functioning airport, became a sanctuary for fleeing civilians and a transit hub for foreigners leaving the northeast African country.

Its rows of white colonial buildings were quickly filled with those who left Khartoum, including United Nations staff and government officials setting up makeshift offices.

In late August, they were joined by army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, whose fighters are pitted against those of his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, commander of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the conflict.

Burhan, the de facto leader of Sudan since leading a 2021 coup, had spent over four months stuck inside the army headquarters in Khartoum, besieged by Daglo's men.

But even though he has left Khartoum, there has been no let-up in fighting for the capital, as well as the western region of Darfur, where allegations of ethnically motivated attacks have led to an international war crimes investigation.

The United Nations' Human Rights Council voted Wednesday to set up an independent fact-finding mission to probe the accusations.

'Life doesn't stop'

Despite the exodus, millions of people have had little choice but to stay in Khartoum, where their bullet-scarred homes are shaken by daily blasts.

A constant plume of smoke now defines the capital's skyline, while businesses and warehouses lie abandoned, ransacked, and charred.

Before the war, the capital's three districts -- Khartoum, Omdurman and Khartoum North -- were the center of power, infrastructure and industry in the country of 48 million people.

"The war has shown just how much Khartoum had monopolized everything, (and) that's why the banks, the companies and all government stopped working," said urban planner Tarek Ahmed.

But economic analyst Omaima Khaled said that did not mean life had come to a halt.

With no end to the war in sight, "there had to be somewhere else where people's affairs could be managed," she said, and the obvious choice was Port Sudan -- a safe and well-connected city.

"It's first of all geographically far from the war," said Khaled, with fighting mainly taking place in the capital and the western region of Darfur.

It also has a long history of being "Sudan's second largest commercial center," she said, which could "very well make it an economic capital".

But Port Sudan has one crucial flaw: "it's 3,000 kilometers from the country's western border and 2,500 kilometers from its south, in a country that severely lacks an efficient transport network," said the economist.

Sudan's dilapidated road network is as highly centralized as the economy. Avoiding the war-torn capital requires massive circuitous routes around a country three times the size of France.

But the problems do not stop there, according to Port Sudan resident Hend Saleh.

"There's a shortage of drinking water and electricity," she told AFP, with the coastal town's already fragile infrastructure now catering to tens of thousands more.

Port Sudan -- founded in 1905 by British rulers to replace the historic port of Suakin, 60 kilometers away -- "is newer than other Sudanese cities and has a better urban plan and a better service network," according to engineer Fathi Yassin.

But it is burdened by the same shortfalls as the rest of Sudan, where decades of dilapidated infrastructure are adding to the immense impact of war.

Sudan's rainy season, which begins in June, has wreaked havoc on vast swathes of the country, with hundreds dying of cholera and dengue fever while 70 percent of hospitals remain out of service, the United Nations has said.

War spreading south

Unlike other Sudanese cities that draw water from the Nile, Port Sudan relies almost entirely on increasingly unpredictable rainfall.

Its residents have long demanded a connection to the river, which would require 500 kilometers of pipes -- an expense Sudan, already one of the poorest countries in the world before the war, has never been able to afford.

Closer to the Nile, the city of Wad Madani -- 200 kilometers south of Khartoum -- has also emerged as a potential capital.

Wad Madani, the capital Al Jazira state in the fertile heartland south of Khartoum, was the first destination for fleeing Khartoum families in the early weeks of the war.

The state now hosts more than 366,000 displaced people, in a thin string of villages between Khartoum and Wad Madani, as well as the state capital itself.

Interim governor Ismail Awadallah said the city also looked set to absorb more of the economy, with "17 large companies discussing their relocation and even expansion in Wad Madani".

But Wad Madani's economic potential might remain unfulfilled, as the fighting in Khartoum encroaches south.

Authorities on Wednesday announced paramilitaries had taken control of large areas of the Gezira agricultural scheme, only around 35 kilometers northwest of Wad Madani.



Impact of Sinwar’s Death on Hamas and the Gaza War

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in 2021 (AP)
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in 2021 (AP)
TT

Impact of Sinwar’s Death on Hamas and the Gaza War

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in 2021 (AP)
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in 2021 (AP)

No one in Israel or Palestine expected the Israeli army to kill Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in what is described as an “accidental” strike, according to Israel’s account since Oct.7.

Israel officially announced Sinwar’s death in an strike on a house in Rafah, southern Gaza, just hours after the army began investigating whether he had been killed. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz called it a “major victory.”

Since Sinwar orchestrated Hamas’ “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack in October last year, he has become Israel’s top target.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi had vowed to kill him, using military and intelligence resources, along with US and Western support, to make his death a key war objective.

Turning Point

The war has reached a significant “turning point” with the killing of Sinwar, which may allow Israel to end the conflict. This development could also give Hamas more flexibility after losing its hardline leader, who has reshaped the group in recent years.

Before Israel confirmed Sinwar’s death, Gallant, Halevi, and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar visited the Gaza border for a security assessment. They also briefed US President Joe Biden about the situation.

Political analyst Mustafa Ibrahim told Asharq Al-Awsat that Sinwar’s assassination will have major impacts on future events.

A Hamas source described the news as a “shock.”

Following confirmation of Sinwar’s death, the source said Hamas leaders began discussions about their future, including the selection of a new leader, current confrontations, and ceasefire negotiations.

Sources familiar with Hamas’ decision-making suggest that Sinwar’s absence will shift control back to the leadership outside Gaza. This change could make negotiations for a ceasefire easier and quicker, which may align with Israeli interests.

Israeli public broadcaster Kan reported that urgent discussions occurred between the negotiation team and security officials following Sinwar’s killing.

Sinwar was among those released in the 2011 prisoner exchange between Hamas and Israel.

After his release, he quickly rose to power and was first elected head of Hamas in Gaza in 2017, succeeding Ismail Haniyeh, who then became the overall leader of the movement. Sinwar took over the leadership role in August.

Radical Control

One key change Sinwar made in Hamas was a “firmness of leadership,” according to a source close to the group. The source explained that Sinwar was a strong leader who made significant decisions about who would rise or fall within the organization.

He successfully pushed the military faction's agenda and took firm control of decision-making, even when communication with him became difficult for a time.

Most of Hamas’ leadership abroad, including members from Gaza and the West Bank, participated in crucial meetings and unanimously approved Sinwar as the leader without any competition.

Sinwar’s selection highlights the continued control of Gaza’s leadership within Hamas for the second consecutive term. This leadership, which includes Ismail Haniyeh and now Sinwar, has worked to align Hamas with the Iranian-led axis, according to analysts.

Comprehensive Review

A source close to Hamas told Asharq Al-Awsat that the movement has been significantly weakened by the loss of many of its hardline leaders. He suggested that Hamas is likely to conduct a thorough review of its policies, though a complete change is not guaranteed.

Regarding potential impacts, the source noted several key points: first, decision-making may shift back to leaders abroad, leading to significant changes; second, Hamas may have to make concessions that were difficult under Sinwar’s leadership, especially concerning the conflict, prisoner exchanges, and relations with the Palestinian Authority; and third, Hamas will seek to navigate current challenges, requiring extensive discussions.

The assassination of Sinwar is another setback for Hamas, which is already facing multiple difficulties.