Israelis, Lebanese Pack Bags for Indefinite Exile amid Fears of Border War

Shells from Israeli artillery explode over Dhayra village, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, Lebanon, 16 October 2023. (EPA)
Shells from Israeli artillery explode over Dhayra village, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, Lebanon, 16 October 2023. (EPA)
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Israelis, Lebanese Pack Bags for Indefinite Exile amid Fears of Border War

Shells from Israeli artillery explode over Dhayra village, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, Lebanon, 16 October 2023. (EPA)
Shells from Israeli artillery explode over Dhayra village, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, Lebanon, 16 October 2023. (EPA)

Israeli and Lebanese residents on both sides of escalating border clashes say they have never felt such tension.

Fearing their hometowns could become the main front in a war between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, they have packed their bags and begun to move out.

"This time it's a whole different kind of anxiety - terrible fear," said Smadar Azoulai, a displaced resident of the Israeli border town of Kiryat Shmona.

"It's not the same as before. We handled that. There were bombs, there were rockets and we took cover in bomb shelters," she said, referring to past flare-ups between Israel and Hezbollah.

Nine miles north of Kiryat Shmona, Lebanese trader Mohammed Mustafa hadn't yet left his hometown of Marjeyoun, but had his suitcase ready.

"Sometimes you wake up and think a big war is going to happen, involving many countries. Other times you think, it's calm and there won't be war. No one really knows what's going to happen," he said.

The border area could become a second front in a wider Middle Eastern war should Israel's expected invasion of Gaza in retaliation for a surprise attack by Hamas militants prompt a strong response from its regional foes.

The attack on Oct. 7 killed more than 1,300 Israelis, the deadliest single day in Israel's 75-year history.

Israel has responded with its fiercest ever bombardment of the blockaded Gaza Strip, killing more than 2,700 Palestinians, and plans a large ground offensive.

‘Tomorrow it could be warplanes’

Israel's narrow northern border with Lebanon, a hilly region by the sea, feels far from the flat, scrubby Gaza Strip, the Palestinian enclave 200 km (130 miles) away on Israel's southwestern edge.

But Iran, which backs Hamas and Hezbollah, said on Tuesday that "preemptive action" could be expected in the coming hours against Israeli assaults on Gaza. Israel has threatened to destroy Lebanon should Hezbollah get involved.

The fear of a major conflagration has scattered communities at the frontier. Israel ordered the evacuation this week of 28 villages near Lebanon, forcing many families to take up residence at tourist resorts further south.

Lebanese residents have meanwhile fled north in the direction of towns and cities they hope won't be targeted by Israeli firepower.

"Today it's just a few shells, tomorrow it could be warplanes, roads being blocked, fuel shortages, hospitals could close. It's normal to see an exodus. The worst thing is that we don't know how long this will last," said Hussein, a Lebanese border resident who gave only his first name.

Already, many Lebanese from the border have moved in with families in Beirut while making contingency plans to head further north or into mountain areas that remained relatively safe during a month-long war in 2006 that killed 1,200 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 157 Israelis, mostly soldiers.

Wide areas of southern Lebanon were destroyed in that war between Hezbollah and Israel, but that conflict began suddenly and without forewarning after the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah. That contrasts with the gradual escalation underway since Oct. 7.

At the Sea of Galilee, hundreds of Israelis from northern kibbutzes said they were living out of suitcases indefinitely.

"The whole kibbutz is here," hospital worker and Kibbutz Bar-Am resident Dani Ayelet Parasol said.

"The mood is one of fear, of uncertainty - when will it end, what will be our place, and what will happen to those whose lives were destroyed?" she said.

Israel's military said it killed four people who had tried to cross the fence bordering Lebanon and plant an explosive device on Tuesday, and heavy shelling and gunfire have continued throughout the day.

The flare up has been the deadliest since the 2006 war, with about a dozen Lebanese and Palestinian fighters killed, as well as three civilians, including Reuters journalist Issam Abdallah.

At least three Israeli soldiers have been killed.

Hezbollah has targeted Israeli military posts, tanks and knocked out surveillance equipment, according to videos shared by the group, while Israel has shelled border towns.



Legal Threats Close in on Israel's Netanyahu, Could Impact Ongoing Wars

The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT
The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT
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Legal Threats Close in on Israel's Netanyahu, Could Impact Ongoing Wars

The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT
The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces legal perils at home and abroad that point to a turbulent future for the Israeli leader and could influence the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, analysts and officials say.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) stunned Israel on Thursday by issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the 13-month-old Gaza conflict. The bombshell came less than two weeks before Netanyahu is due to testify in a corruption trial that has dogged him for years and could end his political career if he is found guilty. He has denied any wrongdoing. While the domestic bribery trial has polarized public opinion, the prime minister has received widespread support from across the political spectrum following the ICC move, giving him a boost in troubled times.
Netanyahu has denounced the court's decision as antisemitic and denied charges that he and Gallant targeted Gazan civilians and deliberately starved them.
"Israelis get really annoyed if they think the world is against them and rally around their leader, even if he has faced a lot of criticism," said Yonatan Freeman, an international relations expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
"So anyone expecting that the ICC ruling will end this government, and what they see as a flawed (war) policy, is going to get the opposite," he added.
A senior diplomat said one initial consequence was that Israel might be less likely to reach a rapid ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon or secure a deal to bring back hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza.
"This terrible decision has ... badly harmed the chances of a deal in Lebanon and future negotiations on the issue of the hostages," said Ofir Akunis, Israel's consul general in New York.
"Terrible damage has been done because these organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas ... have received backing from the ICC and thus they are likely to make the price higher because they have the support of the ICC," he told Reuters.
While Hamas welcomed the ICC decision, there has been no indication that either it or Hezbollah see this as a chance to put pressure on Israel, which has inflicted huge losses on both groups over the past year, as well as on civilian populations.
IN THE DOCK
The ICC warrants highlight the disconnect between the way the war is viewed here and how it is seen by many abroad, with Israelis focused on their own losses and convinced the nation's army has sought to minimize civilian casualties.
Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, said the ICC move would likely harden resolve and give the war cabinet license to hit Gaza and Lebanon harder still.
"There's a strong strand of Israeli feeling that runs deep, which says 'if we're being condemned for what we are doing, we might just as well go full gas'," he told Reuters.
While Netanyahu has received wide support at home over the ICC action, the same is not true of the domestic graft case, where he is accused of bribery, breach of trust and fraud.
The trial opened in 2020 and Netanyahu is finally scheduled to take the stand next month after the court rejected his latest request to delay testimony on the grounds that he had been too busy overseeing the war to prepare his defense.
He was due to give evidence last year but the date was put back because of the war. His critics have accused him of prolonging the Gaza conflict to delay judgment day and remain in power, which he denies. Always a divisive figure in Israel, public trust in Netanyahu fell sharply in the wake of the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas assault on southern Israel that caught his government off guard, cost around 1,200 lives.
Israel's subsequent campaign has killed more than 44,000 people and displaced nearly all Gaza's population at least once, triggering a humanitarian catastrophe, according to Gaza officials.
The prime minister has refused advice from the state attorney general to set up an independent commission into what went wrong and Israel's subsequent conduct of the war.
He is instead looking to establish an inquiry made up only of politicians, which critics say would not provide the sort of accountability demanded by the ICC.
Popular Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth said the failure to order an independent investigation had prodded the ICC into action. "Netanyahu preferred to take the risk of arrest warrants, just as long as he did not have to form such a commission," it wrote on Friday.
ARREST THREAT
The prime minister faces a difficult future living under the shadow of an ICC warrant, joining the ranks of only a few leaders to have suffered similar humiliation, including Libya's Muammar Gaddafi and Serbia's Slobodan Milosevic.
It also means he risks arrest if he travels to any of the court's 124 signatory states, including most of Europe.
One place he can safely visit is the United States, which is not a member of the ICC, and Israeli leaders hope US President-elect Donald Trump will bring pressure to bear by imposing sanctions on ICC officials.
Mike Waltz, Trump's nominee for national security advisor, has already promised tough action: "You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC & UN come January,” he wrote on X on Friday. In the meantime, Israeli officials are talking to their counterparts in Western capitals, urging them to ignore the arrest warrants, as Hungary has already promised to do.
However, the charges are not going to disappear soon, if at all, meaning fellow leaders will be increasingly reluctant to have relations with Netanyahu, said Yuval Shany, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute.
"In a very direct sense, there is going to be more isolation for the Israeli state going forward," he told Reuters.