Exchange of Fire Drives Women, Children Out of South Lebanon Border Towns

The square in the town of Kafr Kila, opposite the Israeli settlement of Metula, appears almost devoid of activity (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The square in the town of Kafr Kila, opposite the Israeli settlement of Metula, appears almost devoid of activity (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Exchange of Fire Drives Women, Children Out of South Lebanon Border Towns

The square in the town of Kafr Kila, opposite the Israeli settlement of Metula, appears almost devoid of activity (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The square in the town of Kafr Kila, opposite the Israeli settlement of Metula, appears almost devoid of activity (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Bilal, a Lebanese engineer, decided to move his family from Lebanon’s southern border town of Aita Shaab to Tyre on the second day of the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The war is now in its third week. Tensions have risen along the Lebanon-Israel border, where Hezbollah members are exchanging fire with Israel.

For now, those exchanges remain limited to a handful of border towns and Hezbollah and Israeli military positions on both sides.

Bilal commutes daily from the city of Tyre to his hometown to continue his work.

“I head out in the morning from Tyre to Aita and return in the evening,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He added that there is no room for fear as long as the course of the battle continues within the conflict zones.

However, at the same time, he states that he managed to safeguard his small family and his two newborn children from the sounds of the shells.

Like the circumstances of many, Bilal’s situation mirrors that of numerous others.

Many have relocated their families to safer areas in Beirut, Sidon, and Tyre.

They return to their villages in the morning and leave in the evening to continue their work.

Residents of the border region say that Syrian workers are the only ones who have completely evacuated.

As for the inhabitants of the border villages, approximately 20% of them have returned.

Most of them leave the villages in the evening, but in the morning, they resume their work in agriculture, livestock farming, and other sectors.

Asharq Al-Awsat conducted visits to several border villages in southern Lebanon, and the situation does not appear normal.

In the village of Kafr Kila, overlooking the border, the town is nearly devoid of women and children, except for around 20 households whose residents either cannot leave due to their financial circumstances or their involvement in local jobs.

“However, the town’s youth have not abandoned it, prepared for any emergency, and the situation has not reached a point of permanent departure yet,” as per Mohammed, who is currently residing in Kafr Kila.

Not far away, a sense of confusion prevails in the town of Khiam.

After approximately 90% of its population fled to neighboring villages and Beirut over the past week, today, 20% of them are returning.

“The situation is expected to prolong, possibly for more than a month,” said Abbas, who owns a local grocery store.

“We can't stay away from our homes given the economic reality outside Khiam. We've returned to work, even at a slower pace. Those who remained steadfast here, whether locals or others, deserve our support for what they’re enduring,” added Abbas.

“We have some of the necessary supplies like chicken and basic groceries that the residents of nearby towns lack since most of the large stores, groceries, and bakeries have closed there,” he explained.

In Qlaiaa, the Christian town that provided refuge for Shiite residents who fled during the 2006 war, there’s no room for further displacement this time around.

“The circumstances are different now, and we have no available rental homes,” said Charbel, a Qlaiaa local.

Life in Qlaiaa seems relatively normal. Some farmers have begun the olive harvesting season, and local olive oil mills have opened their doors, producing olive oil.

However, Charbel does not hide the fact that only about forty families from the original town population remain permanently.

The rest have left for Beirut, fearing a repeat of the July 2006 war.

“No one knows the consequences, and live fire continues to be heard, leaving fear within homes,” Charbel told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The town, where the Lebanese Forces party holds substantial influence, strongly opposes any missile launches from its vicinity.

Locals believe that launching missiles from outside the town towards Israel would jeopardize the stability of the people who refuse to forcibly push some villages into the war.



Three Scenarios for Russia’s Military Presence in Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
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Three Scenarios for Russia’s Military Presence in Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday he would meet former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia after his regime fell in Damascus. But what will Putin say to his former ally? And how might their first exchange unfold, given Russia’s role in helping Assad escape on a chaotic night?

The Kremlin, known for staging Putin’s meetings with precision, might opt to limit media coverage this time. Putin could be seen sitting at a small table with Assad, now on asylum

in Moscow, in a soundless scene—one that leaves little room for formal pleasantries.

Why has Putin announced plans to meet Assad? Is it to reprimand him? Many in Russia believe Assad’s stubbornness has hurt Moscow’s efforts, threatened its gains in Syria, and could eventually risk its key military presence there.

As details remain unclear, Russian experts are racing to analyze developments in Syria and outline scenarios for the next phase.

Some Russian experts have painted grim scenarios. A member of the prestigious Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy warned of potential risks, including a prolonged conflict with civil war elements, a humanitarian catastrophe with millions of refugees, escalating migration in Europe, and rising tensions among nations like Israel, the US, and Iran.

He also predicted a new wave of international terrorism that could reach far beyond the region.

Other experts echoed this pessimism. One posted an image of a Syrian dissident stepping on a statue of Assad’s father, warning that “this is just the beginning.” Another blamed the crisis on the “Obama curse,” citing the West’s interference, while a third shared a bleak analysis titled, “We Must Pray for Syria.”

So far, Russian media and think tanks have avoided any optimistic outlooks for Syria’s future.

Experts, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, believe Moscow may be preparing to handle one of three possible scenarios in Syria.

The first, most favorable for Russia’s interests, involves Moscow reaching an agreement with the new Syrian authorities to maintain its military presence for a limited period.

This could mean replacing the current 49-year agreements with a five-year deal to facilitate a gradual Russian withdrawal. Such an arrangement could help the new leadership in Syria manage Western pressure to cut ties with Moscow.

The second scenario envisions Russia giving up its airbase in Hmeimim while retaining a significant presence in Tartus. This would mirror agreements from 1972, which allowed Russian naval vessels to use the Tartus logistics center in the Mediterranean. This compromise would preserve Russia’s interests while reducing Western pressure on Damascus.

The third scenario involves a full Russian withdrawal from both bases, with Moscow later seeking agreements for shared use of air and sea ports. Such agreements, similar to those Russia has signed with other countries, are less likely to provoke Western opposition.

Regardless of the outcome, the Kremlin has yet to develop a clear strategy for dealing with the emerging situation in Syria.

Key questions remain, including how to curb Iran’s regional influence, manage Türkiye and Israel’s growing roles in Syria, and establish a new regional balance that secures Moscow’s minimum interests.