Analysts: Houthi Engagement in Gaza War Unlikely to Affect Peace Efforts in Yemen

Members of Houthi military forces parade in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida, Yemen September 1, 2022. Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS
Members of Houthi military forces parade in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida, Yemen September 1, 2022. Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS
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Analysts: Houthi Engagement in Gaza War Unlikely to Affect Peace Efforts in Yemen

Members of Houthi military forces parade in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida, Yemen September 1, 2022. Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS
Members of Houthi military forces parade in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida, Yemen September 1, 2022. Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS

Analysts ruled out that the Houthi group’s involvement in the current war in Gaza would affect the ongoing peace efforts in Yemen.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, analysts said the Houthis, by announcing the targeting of Israel, sought to express popular support for the Palestinians, suggesting that Israel would respond by attacking Houthi military targets, while ruling out any US intervention, at least at the current stage.

On Tuesday, the Houthi group in Yemen officially claimed responsibility for bombing Israel with missiles and drones. The announcement came after the US and Israeli forces previously said the attacks came from the southern Red Sea.

Mustafa Naaman, the former Undersecretary of the Yemeni Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that the “Houthi endeavour” in Gaza will not have an impact on the internal situation and the ongoing negotiations between the parties to the Yemeni conflict.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Naaman said that he expects that the recent events would accelerate the closure of the Yemeni war and would see the start of addressing the humanitarian side.

For his part, Dr. Hisham Al-Ghannam, the General Supervisor of the Center for Security Research and National Security Programs at Naif Arab University for Security Sciences (NAUSS), explained that the Houthis have repeatedly announced that they were part of what they called the “axis of resistance and opposition,” and that they would engage in any battle involving this axis.

Al-Ghannam went on to say that the Houthi move fell within the framework of an expression of popular support for the Palestinians and would not impact the ongoing efforts in Yemen.

“The internal Yemeni situation is complex and more complicated than it appears to be... Certainly, the symbolic involvement in a battle far from Yemen will have no impact on the internal Yemeni negotiations, because the intra-Yemeni disputes have nothing to do with Palestine...” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Al-Ghannam also ruled out any “American intervention against the Houthis, unless their forces or interests are directly targeted.”



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.