What Will We Do the Day After the War? Israel’s Million-Dollar Question

Smoke rises from Beit Hanoun in northern Gaza (EPA)
Smoke rises from Beit Hanoun in northern Gaza (EPA)
TT
20

What Will We Do the Day After the War? Israel’s Million-Dollar Question

Smoke rises from Beit Hanoun in northern Gaza (EPA)
Smoke rises from Beit Hanoun in northern Gaza (EPA)

The million-dollar question in Israel, which has remained unanswered since the lengthy 2014 war on Gaza, revolved around the “day after” regaining control of the territory.

In Israel’s small-scale security and political cabinet, questions such as “What should our actions be on the following day? Should we maintain our presence? Reoccupy Gaza? Restore the Palestinian Authority? Or should we withdraw and potentially face a resurgence of Hamas' power?” were raised.

The questions were discussed by thinkers, journalists, writers, security experts, retired military personnel, and intelligence agencies, including Mossad and Shin Bet.

However, these questions have remained unanswered.

Nine years later, Israel finds itself compelled to fight in the heart of Gaza with the goal of toppling and destroying Hamas’ rule. Nevertheless, the issue of the “day after” the overthrow of the movement’s rule continues to be a cause for concern, assuming that the Israelis succeed in their mission.

Security Control without Clear Answers

After a month of fierce conflict with the Palestinians and significant pressure from the US, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israel would assume “comprehensive security responsibility” in Gaza “for an unspecified period” following the conclusion of the war against Hamas.

Netanyahu conveyed to ABC News that Israel will take on comprehensive security responsibility for an unspecified period because it has witnessed what happens when it doesn’t.

“When we don't assume that security responsibility, what we end up with is a scale of terrorism (Hamas) beyond imagination,” said Netanyahu.

While this marks the first time the premier has spoken about Israel’s vision for the day after Hamas, it remains unclear what he means regarding the extent of security responsibility.

Was Netanyahu implying a desire to occupy Gaza, occupy a portion in the north of the territory, and establish a security buffer zone with Israeli forces for some time, or was he speaking about continuing operations as needed after a complete withdrawal?

Israeli officials insist they do not seek to occupy Gaza, and President Joe Biden’s administration has also expressed opposition to this scenario.

Amir Tibon, writing in Haaretz, suggests there is no exit plan from the current crisis, and US officials are concerned about the absence of a clear exit strategy.

He added that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised this during his recent visit to the Israeli government, but his impression of the Israeli responses is that “the matter was not explicitly put up for discussion.”

Israeli state-owned free-to-air television channel “Kan 11” confirmed that Netanyahu's government has begun outlining the broad parameters for the post-war scenario and the nature of security control in the Gaza Strip, driven by ongoing US pressures to make a decision on this matter.

Who Holds Civilian Authority?

Over the past 30 days, Israeli officials have put forth several scenarios, including altering the shape of Gaza, reducing its territory, establishing an international governing body, deploying peacekeeping forces, or the return of the Palestinian Authority.

While US officials confirmed that discussions are ongoing, following ideas presented by Blinken to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid believed that the Palestinian Authority is the sole entity capable of assuming control over Gaza after a victory over Hamas.

Lapid asserted that civilian control should rest with the PA, while security control in the foreseeable future should remain in the hands of the Israeli military.



The US and Iran Have Had Bitter Relations for Decades. After the Bombs, a New Chapter Begins

Iran's and US' flags are seen printed on paper in this illustration taken January 27, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Iran's and US' flags are seen printed on paper in this illustration taken January 27, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
TT
20

The US and Iran Have Had Bitter Relations for Decades. After the Bombs, a New Chapter Begins

Iran's and US' flags are seen printed on paper in this illustration taken January 27, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Iran's and US' flags are seen printed on paper in this illustration taken January 27, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Now comes a new chapter in US-Iran relations, whether for the better or the even worse.

For nearly a half century, the world has witnessed an enmity for the ages — the threats, the plotting, the poisonous rhetoric between the “Great Satan” of Iranian lore and the “Axis of Evil” troublemaker of the Middle East, in America's eyes, The Associated Press reported.

Now we have a US president saying, of all things, “God bless Iran.”

This change of tone, however fleeting, came after the intense US bombing of Iranian nuclear-development sites this week, Iran's retaliatory yet restrained attack on a US military base in Qatar and the tentative ceasefire brokered by President Donald Trump in the Israel-Iran war.

The US attack on three targets inflicted serious damage but did not destroy them, a US intelligence report found, contradicting Trump's assertion that the attack “obliterated” Iran's nuclear program.

Here are some questions and answers about the long history of bad blood between the two countries:

Why did Trump offer blessings all around? In the first blush of a ceasefire agreement, even before Israel and Iran appeared to be fully on board, Trump exulted in the achievement. “God bless Israel,” he posted on social media. “God bless Iran.” He wished blessings on the Middle East, America and the world, too.

When it became clear that all hostilities had not immediately ceased after all, he took to swearing instead.

“We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f— they’re doing,” he said on camera.

In that moment, Trump was especially critical of Israel, the steadfast US ally, for seeming less attached to the pause in fighting than the country that has been shouting “Death to America” for generations and is accused of trying to assassinate him.

Why did US-Iran relations sour in the first place? In two words, Operation Ajax.

That was the 1953 coup orchestrated by the CIA, with British support, that overthrew Iran's democratically elected government and handed power to the shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The Western powers had feared the rise of Soviet influence and the nationalization of Iran's oil industry.

The shah was a strategic US ally who repaired official relations with Washington. But grievances simmered among Iranians over his autocratic rule and his bowing to America's interests.

All of that boiled over in 1979 when the shah fled the country and the theocratic revolutionaries took control, imposing their own hard line.

How did the Iranian revolution deepen tensions? Profoundly.

On Nov. 4, 1979, with anti-American sentiment at a fever pitch, Iranian students took 66 American diplomats and citizens hostage and held more than 50 of them in captivity for 444 days.

It was a humiliating spectacle for the United States and President Jimmy Carter, who ordered a secret rescue mission months into the Iran hostage crisis. In Operation Eagle Claw, eight Navy helicopters and six Air Force transport planes were sent to rendezvous in the Iranian desert. A sand storm aborted the mission and eight service members died when a helicopter crashed into a C-120 refueling plane.

Diplomatic ties were severed in 1980 and remain broken.

Iran released the hostages minutes after Ronald Reagan's presidential inauguration on Jan. 20, 1981. That was just long enough to ensure that Carter, bogged in the crisis for over a year, would not see them freed in his term.

Was this week's US attack the first against Iran? No. But the last big one was at sea.

On April 18, 1988, the US Navy sank two Iranian ships, damaged another and destroyed two surveillance platforms in its largest surface engagement since World War II. Operation Praying Mantis was in retaliation against the mining of the USS Samuel B. Roberts in the Persian Gulf four days earlier. Ten sailors were injured and the explosion left a gaping hole in the hull.

Did the US take sides in the Iran-Iraq war? Not officially, but essentially.

The US provided economic aid, intelligence sharing and military-adjacent technology to Iraq, concerned that an Iranian victory would spread instability through the region and strain oil supplies. Iran and Iraq emerged from the 1980-1988 war with no clear victor and the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives, while US-Iraq relations fractured spectacularly in the years after.

What was the Iran-Contra affair? An example of US-Iran cooperation of sorts — an illegal, and secret, one until it wasn't.

Not long after the US designated Iran a state sponsor of terrorism in 1984 — a status that remains — it emerged that America was illicitly selling arms to Iran. One purpose was to win the release of hostages in Lebanon under the control of Iran-backed Hezbollah. The other was to raise secret money for the Contra rebels in Nicaragua in defiance of a US ban on supporting them.

President Ronald Reagan fumbled his way through the scandal but emerged unscathed — legally if not reputationally.

How many nations does the US designate as state sponsors of terrorism? Only four: Iran, North Korea, Cuba and Syria.

The designation makes those countries the target of broad sanctions. Syria's designation is being reviewed in light of the fall of Bashar Assad’s government.

Where did the term ‘Axis of Evil’ come from? From President George W. Bush in his 2002 State of the Union address. He spoke five months after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and the year before he launched the invasion of Iraq on the wrong premise that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction.

He singled out Iran, North Korea and Saddam's Iraq and said: “States like these, and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world.”

In response, Iran and some of its anti-American proxies and allies in the region took to calling their informal coalition an Axis of Resistance at times.

What about those proxies and allies? Some, like Hezbollah and Hamas, are degraded due to Israel's fierce and sustained assault on them. In Syria, Assad fled to safety in Moscow after losing power to opposition factions once tied to al-Qaida but now cautiously welcomed by Trump.

In Yemen, Houthi militants who have attacked commercial ships in the Red Sea and pledged common cause with Palestinians have been bombed by the US and Britain. In Iraq, armed Shia factions controlled or supported by Iran still operate and attract periodic attacks from the United States.

What about Iran's nuclear program? In 2015, President Barack Obama and other powers struck a deal with Iran to limit its nuclear development in return for the easing of sanctions. Iran agreed to get rid of an enriched uranium stockpile, dismantle most centrifuges and give international inspectors more access to see what it was doing.

Trump assailed the deal in his 2016 campaign and scrapped it two years later as president, imposing a "maximum pressure" campaign of sanctions. He argued the deal only delayed the development of nuclear weapons and did nothing to restrain Iran's aggression in the region. Iran's nuclear program resumed over time and, according to inspectors, accelerated in recent months.

Trump's exit from the nuclear deal brought a warning from Hassan Rouhani, then Iran's president, in 2018: “America must understand well that peace with Iran is the mother of all peace. And war with Iran is the mother of all wars.”

How did Trump respond to Iran's provocations? In January 2020, Trump ordered the drone strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, Iran's top commander, when he was in Iraq.

Then Iran came after him, according to President Joe Biden's attorney general, Merrick Garland. Days after Trump won last year's election, the Justice Department filed charges against an Iranian man believed to still be in his country and two alleged associates in New York.

“The Justice Department has charged an asset of the Iranian regime who was tasked by the regime to direct a network of criminal associates to further Iran’s assassination plots against its targets, including President-elect Donald Trump," Garland said.

Now, Trump is seeking peace at the table after ordering bombs dropped on Iran, and offering blessings.

It is potentially the mother of all turnarounds.