Palestinian Ex-Prisoner Hopes His Son Will Also Be Freed in Israel Swap

 Palestinians search for casualties at the site of Israeli strikes on a house in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip November 22, 2023. (Reuters)
Palestinians search for casualties at the site of Israeli strikes on a house in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip November 22, 2023. (Reuters)
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Palestinian Ex-Prisoner Hopes His Son Will Also Be Freed in Israel Swap

 Palestinians search for casualties at the site of Israeli strikes on a house in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip November 22, 2023. (Reuters)
Palestinians search for casualties at the site of Israeli strikes on a house in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip November 22, 2023. (Reuters)

For Yusif Abu Maria, the looming Gaza hostage deal is especially personal. Not only is his son on a list of candidates of imprisoned Palestinians to be freed by Israel: It would be a replay of Abu Maria's own release from jail almost 20 years ago.

The Qatari- and Egyptian-mediated agreement approved by Israel in the early hours of Wednesday will pause the war between Israel and Hamas militants for a few days, enabling the entry of more humanitarian aid to the ravaged Gaza Strip.

In the lull, Hamas will free 50 children and women who were among some 240 people taken to Gaza during its Oct. 7 killing spree in south Israel. In return, 150 female inmates or teenaged males will be released from Israeli security prisons.

A list of 300 candidate prisoners published by Israel's Justice Ministry includes Ubay Abu Maria, who was taken into custody this year, four months after his 18th birthday, and accused of belonging to the armed Islamic Jihad militant group.

The length of the list suggested Israel was preparing for the possible disqualification of some prisoners by its Supreme Court, where victims of Palestinian attacks can file challenges, or that future prisoner-for-hostage swaps were being prepared.

But Ubay's pining father sounded confident of a homecoming.

"Of course I'm very happy, because I've lived through this myself," said Yusif, who in 2004 was among 400 prisoners freed in return for an Israeli businessman and the bodies of three Israeli soldiers held by the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

"Ubay will be in my arms, among my family, my brethren, his siblings, and in his mother's lap. We say that, God willing, all prisoners - not just Ubay, but also prisoners who have been in jail for 40 years, 30 years - should be released," he told Reuters, saluting their "great and brave resistance" to Israel.

Many Israelis see the Palestinian prisoners as dangerous foes whose freedom would raise risks of new and widespread violence.

Yusif, a member of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah faction, said he had spent several stints in Israeli jails on charges of organizing a potential armed attack. He confirmed Ubay's association with the more hardline Islamic Jihad.

"It was at school where met some people from Islamic Jihad. It was his decision and I supported his decision. I didn't have any objection," Yusif said in the family home in the occupied West Bank.

Uday has an arm injury, his parents said, compounding their worry about conditions that have been toughened up in the prisons, where inmates have clashed with guards at times.

The Prisons Service has reported the death in custody of five inmates since Oct. 7, four of them from apparent health complications. The fifth case is under investigation, the Prisons Service said.

"I feel just like any mother who has a wounded son in jail would," said Yusif's wife, Fida. "We hear a different rumor or a genuine report every day, things that break our hearts. So of course I'm very happy. God willing this will be concluded well."



Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
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Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)

The ground battles between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon remain intense, with no end in sight for the coming weeks. The arrival of winter will bring weather changes that could slow down operations. but won't stop the fighting.

Experts say that while winter weather, especially rain and fog, can make it harder for fighters and vehicles to move, it has a limited impact on the overall conflict. Air operations, which rely on advanced technology, are less affected.

The region’s mild winter conditions, unlike harsher winters in other countries, will not be a decisive factor in the battle.

Retired General Abdul Rahman Shheitly believes that modern military equipment is designed to work in any weather.

However, he told Asharq Al-Awsat that fog and rain can give both sides an advantage by obscuring visibility, making it harder to spot each other.

This benefits the attacking side, Israel, which has superior technology, while Hezbollah’s movements could be hindered by muddy terrain.

Shheitly also noted that weather affects displaced civilians, which could put pressure on political negotiations to end the conflict.

Retired General Hassan Jouni, former deputy chief of staff of operations in the Lebanese Armed Forces, argued that weather conditions affect the attacker more than the defender. Since Hezbollah is defending its ground, it is less impacted by the cold and rain.

The weather only slightly affects vehicle movement, and does not stop the fighting.

Jouni noted that the region doesn’t experience severe winter weather, so air operations will be unaffected by rain or cold. Modern drones, missiles, and aircraft are designed to function in such conditions, with GPS ensuring precise targeting.

Both Hezbollah and Israel rely heavily on drones. Hezbollah’s drones are noted for their accuracy and ability to avoid Israel’s Iron Dome defense, while Israel uses drones for surveillance and targeted strikes.

More than a year has passed since the conflict began after Hezbollah opened its "support front” for Hamas on October 8, 2023. The fighting, mostly limited to airstrikes during the winter of 2023, escalated with Israel’s ground operation a month ago, though its full goals remain unclear.

As the ground battles continue, Israel seems focused on creating a buffer zone in the South rather than occupying towns. Israel has destroyed over 37 villages to achieve this goal.

The next steps remain uncertain.

Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has stated that the military is preparing for further ground operations in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah remains determined to hold its ground and prevent Israeli advances.