What Are the Legitimate Yemeni Govt’s Messages from Bab al-Mandab Visit?

Yemeni coastguard members loyal to the legitimate government ride in boats the Red Sea off of the government-held town of Mokha in the western Taiz province, close to the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, on December 12, 2023. (AFP)
Yemeni coastguard members loyal to the legitimate government ride in boats the Red Sea off of the government-held town of Mokha in the western Taiz province, close to the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, on December 12, 2023. (AFP)
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What Are the Legitimate Yemeni Govt’s Messages from Bab al-Mandab Visit?

Yemeni coastguard members loyal to the legitimate government ride in boats the Red Sea off of the government-held town of Mokha in the western Taiz province, close to the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, on December 12, 2023. (AFP)
Yemeni coastguard members loyal to the legitimate government ride in boats the Red Sea off of the government-held town of Mokha in the western Taiz province, close to the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, on December 12, 2023. (AFP)

Deputy head of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council Aidarous al-Zubaidi and Defense Minister Mohsen al-Daeri visited the Bab al-Mandab district and Mayyun island in the Red Sea.

The significant development took place as the United States on Tuesday launched a multinational operation to safeguard commerce in the Red Sea as attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militias forced major shipping companies to reroute, fueling concern over sustained disruptions to global trade.

Zubaidi met with commanders of the Arab coalition forces on Mayyun, hailing the major role the alliance has played in securing the region and supporting efforts to restore normal life there, reported the state news agency Saba.

He toured several vital projects underway on the island, including the construction of Mayyun airport, a desalination plant and residential unit that is being built with the support of the United Arab Emirates.

Zubaidi’s press secretary Ali al-Hadyani told Asharq Al-Awsat that the visit to Bab al-Mandab and Mayyun aims to deliver two messages.

"The first is that this vital region, which is located on one of the world’s most important marine shipping and trade routes, is a sovereign part of the nation and we will protect and defend it with all our might," he declared.

"We will not let it slip through our fingers no matter the challenges and hardships," he added, vowing to confront the dangers threatening these regions.

The second message is that the visit by the PLC deputy leader sends a signal that "we are part of the regional and international communities," he went on to say.

"Our presence here is a sign that we are part of Arab national security. Bab al-Mandab and its islands are an integral part of Arab national security. We will cooperate with our brothers in the Arab coalition to protect these regions and deter any threats," he vowed.

"We will always be part of the Arab fold ... and we will be prepared to be part of any coalition that will be formed to protect this vital waterway," he stated.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, who was on a trip to Bahrain, said Britain, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain were among nations involved in the Red Sea security operation.

The group, widely dubbed in media reports a "task force," will conduct joint patrols in the southern Red Sea and the adjacent Gulf of Aden.

"This is an international challenge that demands collective action," Austin said in a statement, announcing the initiative as "Operation Prosperity Guardian." He called on other countries to contribute as he condemned "reckless Houthi actions".

The Red Sea is linked to the Mediterranean by the Suez Canal, which creates the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia. About 12% of world shipping traffic transits the canal.



Iran Opts for Dialogue with Europe ahead of Trump's Return to Office

President Donald Trump shows a signed Presidential Memorandum after delivering a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, Tuesday, May 8, 2018, in Washington. (AP)
President Donald Trump shows a signed Presidential Memorandum after delivering a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, Tuesday, May 8, 2018, in Washington. (AP)
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Iran Opts for Dialogue with Europe ahead of Trump's Return to Office

President Donald Trump shows a signed Presidential Memorandum after delivering a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, Tuesday, May 8, 2018, in Washington. (AP)
President Donald Trump shows a signed Presidential Memorandum after delivering a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, Tuesday, May 8, 2018, in Washington. (AP)

It is difficult to predict what the outcomes will be of the discussions between Iran, France, Britain and Germany about Tehran’s nuclear program in Geneva on Friday.

Last week, the UN atomic watchdog's 35-nation Board of Governors passed a resolution again ordering Iran to urgently improve cooperation with the agency and requesting a "comprehensive" report aimed at pressuring Iran into fresh nuclear talks.

Britain, France, Germany and the United States, which proposed the resolution, dismissed as insufficient and insincere a last-minute Iranian move to cap its stock of uranium that is close to weapons-grade. Diplomats said Iran's move was conditional on scrapping the resolution.

Iran has been weighing its response to the censure, debating whether to increase uranium enrichment or by being open to the proposals expected at the Geneva talks.

The discussions may seek a new nuclear deal instead of the 2015 one with Tehran that is in tatters.

As it stands, Iran is likely to opt for negotiations instead of escalation due to a number of internal, regional and international reasons.

Diplomatic sources in Paris noted US President-elect Donald Trump’s appointments of officials handling Middle East affairs, underscoring their unreserved support to Israel and clear hostility to Iran.

These appointments may lead Iran to think twice before resorting to any escalation.

Even before Trump has taken office, his circles have said that the new president will take “several executive decisions related to Iran and that will be declared on his first day in office.” The decisions will be binding and do not need Congress’ approval.

However, Trump is unpredictable and the sources did not rule out the surprise possibility of him striking a deal with Iran related to its nuclear program and behavior in the Middle East. This means that Tehran will have to make major concessions, including abandoning its policy of “exporting the revolution”.

This remains a far-fatched possibility, however. In all likelihood, Washington under Trump will return to his “maximum pressure” policy against Iran on political, diplomatic and economic levels to make it return to the negotiations table and agree on a deal that completely ends its nuclear ambitions.

So, at the Geneva meeting on Friday, Tehran will seek to achieve two main goals: a nuclear breakthrough during what remains of US President Joe Biden’s time in office, and attempt to lure the European powers away from Trump.

The truth is that Tehran is wading in the unknown. One only has to go back to Trump’s past statements about how Israel should have struck Iran’s nuclear facilities during its October 26 attack on the country.

Trump has already shown Iran his hardline stance when he ordered the assassination of Quds Forces leader Qassem Soleimani near Baghdad airport in January 2020.

Based on this, Tehran is scrambling to avert a joint American-Israeli strike that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been dreaming of.

Iran is vulnerable now due to two main reasons: the Israeli strike in October weakened Iran’s air defenses and Netanyahu has said that Israeli jets can now run rampant over Iran without any worries.

And Tehran can no longer rely on its allied militias to threaten Israel with all-out war. Hamas in Gaza is no longer in a position to threaten Israel and neither is Hezbollah in Lebanon.

So, Iran now finds itself exposed and would rather turn to negotiations with Europe than risk escalation that would cost it dearly with Israel now that it can no longer rely on Hamas and Hezbollah.