Iran 2023: Suppressing Protests, Regional Diplomacy, and Deepening Confrontation with the West

Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)
Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)
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Iran 2023: Suppressing Protests, Regional Diplomacy, and Deepening Confrontation with the West

Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)
Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)

In 2023, Iran initiated a campaign to suppress the most extensive surge of popular protests ever witnessed in the country, sparked by the tragic death of the young woman Mahsa Amini while in custody.

During the first weeks of the year, the Iranian government sought to quell protests and strikes, hastily conducting trials for protesters and carrying out death sentences for the convicted.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, however, later issued a pardon for prisoners, encompassing those detained during the protests, amidst skepticism from human rights organizations.

Before the dust of the protests could settle, non-lethal but toxic attacks on girls’ schools across the country instigated a state of panic and fear among Iranians. The responsible party remains unknown to date.

The repercussions of the protests persist both domestically and internationally.

Tehran has accused Western powers of waging a hybrid war against it.

Iranian human rights activist Narges Mohammadi was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, while the European Union bestowed the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought upon Amini.

The US and Europe have also imposed a series of sanctions on Iranian officials, particularly targeting leaders of the military apparatus and the Iranian judiciary.

Relations between the UK and Iran became strained after Tehran executed Ali Reza Akbari, the former assistant defense minister and a close associate of Ali Shamkhani, the former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, on charges of spying for the UK.

Just 72 hours after Akbari’s case was revealed, authorities announced his execution.

The execution of Akbari heightened tensions between Iran and Western powers.

Furthermore, prospects for reviving the nuclear agreement and returning to diplomatic channels stumbled as Russia expanded its use of Iranian drones in bombing Ukrainian cities.

Tehran insisted on its commitment to maintaining the diplomatic track and adhering to its conditions for returning to the nuclear agreement, but diplomatic efforts remained on the brink of collapse.

In February, William Burns, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), stated that Washington does not believe Khamenei has decided to resume nuclear weapons programs.

During the same month, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) criticized Iran for concealing a change in the enrichment system at the underground Fordow facility.

Shortly afterward, IAEA inspectors announced the discovery of uranium particles enriched to 83.7%, significantly surpassing Iran's declared enrichment level of 60%.

This raised concerns about Tehran laying the groundwork for enriching uranium to 90%, the threshold required for nuclear weapons production.

Iran blamed the IAEA inspectors, while the agency stated that Tehran had informed them that the cause was “unintended fluctuations” during equipment changes.

As tensions between Tehran and Western powers regarding the nuclear agreement escalated, coupled with its collaboration with Russia, Tehran made moves to break its isolation by seeking to improve relations with its regional neighbors.

A pivotal moment in these efforts was the achievement of an agreement with Saudi Arabia, mediated by China, to open a new chapter in diplomatic relations.

This breakthrough followed a seven-year hiatus and was met with regional and international approval.

Ultimately, it led to the exchange of ambassadors, the reopening of diplomatic missions, and reciprocal visits between the foreign ministers of the two countries.



Kurdish-Turkish Settlement: Shaping a New Middle East

Tulay Hatimogulları speaks at a press conference. Asharq Al-Awsat file photo
Tulay Hatimogulları speaks at a press conference. Asharq Al-Awsat file photo
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Kurdish-Turkish Settlement: Shaping a New Middle East

Tulay Hatimogulları speaks at a press conference. Asharq Al-Awsat file photo
Tulay Hatimogulları speaks at a press conference. Asharq Al-Awsat file photo

A string of pivotal developments in recent months has forged new and unprecedented dynamics - mainly related to the Kurdish cause - across the region.

The collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8 shifted the calculations of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), pushing them to break their isolation from Iraqi Kurdish factions.

Simultaneously, an overture by Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan, who called for the disarmament of his group, opened communication channels between Türkiye’s Kurds and their counterparts in Iraq and Syria.

At the heart of this political transformation is Tulay Hatimogulları, co-chair of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM). A leftist Turkish politician of Arab Alawite origin, she embodies the complex identities of the Levant and its interconnected communities.

With her modest charisma and approachable style, Hatimogulları rarely turns down a request for a photo or a chat from her Kurdish supporters. An Asharq Al-Awsat correspondent met her in Diyarbakir—known to Kurds as Amed—shortly after her arrival from Ankara.

She was quick to tell them, in fluent Arabic, that she hails from Iskenderun, a region that was part of the autonomous Syrian district of Alexandretta under French control from 1921 until its controversial annexation by Türkiye in 1939, following a disputed referendum and the displacement of many of its original inhabitants.

Hatimogulları comes from a family of Arab Alawites who remained in the area. Today, she stands out as one of the few Turkish politicians capable of mediating between Ankara and the PKK at what many view as a potentially historic moment.

On February 27, Ocalan, who is serving a life sentence in the island prison of İmralı in the Sea of Marmara, issued a call for the PKK to lay down its arms and disband. His message was relayed by DEM party representatives who met him in prison. Ocalan was captured by Turkish special forces in Kenya in February 1999, and since then, most PKK fighters have been based in the mountainous regions of northern Iraq.

Ocalan’s call came after a statement last October by Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a key ally of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Türkiye’s parliament. Bahçeli proposed a deal to free Ocalan in exchange for the PKK’s cessation of its insurgency.

Hatimogulları, speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, explained that “with the PKK’s announcement of plans to hold a disarmament conference, it is essential that military operations and airstrikes cease. Additionally, the necessary technical and logistical infrastructure must be established to enable direct communication between Ocalan and the PKK.”

The potential developments between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ocalan could have significant repercussions across the Middle East, with signs of these effects already beginning to emerge.

Both Masoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), and Nechirvan Barzani, President of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, sent representatives to attend Nowruz celebrations in Amed (Diyarbakir).

During their visit, they met with officials from the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (HDP). In turn, the HDP sent representatives to the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in February to discuss the peace initiative. There, they held talks with officials from the Barzani-led KDP and the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), BafelTalabani.