Iran 2023: Suppressing Protests, Regional Diplomacy, and Deepening Confrontation with the West

Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)
Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)
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Iran 2023: Suppressing Protests, Regional Diplomacy, and Deepening Confrontation with the West

Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)
Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)

In 2023, Iran initiated a campaign to suppress the most extensive surge of popular protests ever witnessed in the country, sparked by the tragic death of the young woman Mahsa Amini while in custody.

During the first weeks of the year, the Iranian government sought to quell protests and strikes, hastily conducting trials for protesters and carrying out death sentences for the convicted.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, however, later issued a pardon for prisoners, encompassing those detained during the protests, amidst skepticism from human rights organizations.

Before the dust of the protests could settle, non-lethal but toxic attacks on girls’ schools across the country instigated a state of panic and fear among Iranians. The responsible party remains unknown to date.

The repercussions of the protests persist both domestically and internationally.

Tehran has accused Western powers of waging a hybrid war against it.

Iranian human rights activist Narges Mohammadi was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, while the European Union bestowed the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought upon Amini.

The US and Europe have also imposed a series of sanctions on Iranian officials, particularly targeting leaders of the military apparatus and the Iranian judiciary.

Relations between the UK and Iran became strained after Tehran executed Ali Reza Akbari, the former assistant defense minister and a close associate of Ali Shamkhani, the former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, on charges of spying for the UK.

Just 72 hours after Akbari’s case was revealed, authorities announced his execution.

The execution of Akbari heightened tensions between Iran and Western powers.

Furthermore, prospects for reviving the nuclear agreement and returning to diplomatic channels stumbled as Russia expanded its use of Iranian drones in bombing Ukrainian cities.

Tehran insisted on its commitment to maintaining the diplomatic track and adhering to its conditions for returning to the nuclear agreement, but diplomatic efforts remained on the brink of collapse.

In February, William Burns, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), stated that Washington does not believe Khamenei has decided to resume nuclear weapons programs.

During the same month, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) criticized Iran for concealing a change in the enrichment system at the underground Fordow facility.

Shortly afterward, IAEA inspectors announced the discovery of uranium particles enriched to 83.7%, significantly surpassing Iran's declared enrichment level of 60%.

This raised concerns about Tehran laying the groundwork for enriching uranium to 90%, the threshold required for nuclear weapons production.

Iran blamed the IAEA inspectors, while the agency stated that Tehran had informed them that the cause was “unintended fluctuations” during equipment changes.

As tensions between Tehran and Western powers regarding the nuclear agreement escalated, coupled with its collaboration with Russia, Tehran made moves to break its isolation by seeking to improve relations with its regional neighbors.

A pivotal moment in these efforts was the achievement of an agreement with Saudi Arabia, mediated by China, to open a new chapter in diplomatic relations.

This breakthrough followed a seven-year hiatus and was met with regional and international approval.

Ultimately, it led to the exchange of ambassadors, the reopening of diplomatic missions, and reciprocal visits between the foreign ministers of the two countries.



Sweida’s Druze, Bedouin Tribes Locked in Historic Grievances

Druze woman from Israeli-Occupied Golan gazes toward Syria (Reuters)
Druze woman from Israeli-Occupied Golan gazes toward Syria (Reuters)
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Sweida’s Druze, Bedouin Tribes Locked in Historic Grievances

Druze woman from Israeli-Occupied Golan gazes toward Syria (Reuters)
Druze woman from Israeli-Occupied Golan gazes toward Syria (Reuters)

Sweida, a province in southern Syria, is teetering on the brink after days of deadly violence and clashes between local communities and government security forces, an unrest that signals deeper turmoil across the war-battered country.

The latest flare-up has laid bare tensions that go beyond the provincial borders, raising concerns about the future of coexistence and civil peace in a region long known for its rich tapestry of religious, social, and cultural diversity.

While the Syrian government in Damascus seeks to reassert control over all of its territory, local groups are renewing calls for greater recognition of their rights and “distinct identity.” The result is a fragile and combustible equation in a strategically vital region.

Sweida has long been a flashpoint, shaped by decades of uneasy relations between Druze communities and neighboring Bedouin tribes. That legacy of mistrust now intersects with a crumbling economy, a lack of essential services, the rise of armed factions, and a newly entrenched central authority in Damascus, factors that together threaten to turn the province into a flashpoint for wider instability.

Competing narratives have further muddied the waters, with each side offering starkly different versions of recent events, accounts that are often shaped not just by what happened in the past few days, but by long-standing grievances and buried animosities. The deepening rift and absence of trust among local communities highlight just how far Syria remains from reconciliation.

As pressure builds, observers warn that without a sustainable political solution that acknowledges local demands while maintaining national cohesion, Sweida may be a harbinger of further unrest in Syria’s uncertain future.

Power Struggles and Fractured Alliances

In Syria’s Sweida, power is fragmented among a complex web of religious authorities, influential families, and rival armed factions, a fractured landscape that reflects the broader divisions tearing at the country.

Local leadership is split between traditional Druze clerical authorities and prominent families, each with their own loyalties and varying degrees of influence on the ground. Political rivalries run deep, and military factions are equally divided, some aligning with the government in Damascus, while others openly challenge it.

Among the most prominent pro-government groups is the “Madafat al-Karama” faction led by Laith al-Balous, son of the late Druze leader Sheikh Wahid al-Balous. He is seen as a key ally of Damascus, alongside Suleiman Abdel-Baqi, commander of the “Ahrar Jabal al-Arab” group.

On the opposing side are factions such as the “Military Council in Sweida” and “Liwa al-Jabal” (Mountain Brigade), which collectively field around 3,000 fighters. These groups are seen as aligned with the views of influential Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, who has been increasingly critical of the central government.

A newer alliance has also emerged under the banner of “Counter-Terrorism Forces” or the “Syrian Brigade Party,” bringing together factions such as “Dir’ al-Tawhid,” “Forces of Al-Ulya,” “Sheikh al-Karama,” “Saraya al-Jabal,” and “Jaysh al-Muwahideen.” This coalition formally severed ties with Damascus following Sheikh Hijri’s speech on July 15, in which he rejected the government’s announcement of a ceasefire agreement with local notables.

Also active in the province is the “Men of Dignity Movement,” a relatively large faction led by Abu Hassan Yehya al-Hajjar. Though not officially aligned with the new coalition, the group is also staunchly opposed to the Syrian government.

The growing number of factions and rival power centers has deepened instability in Sweida.

Bedouin Tribes in Sweida Say They Are Marginalized, Blamed and Forgotten

Even after government forces withdrew and a fragile ceasefire took hold in Sweida, clashes reignited, this time between Druze residents and Bedouin tribes, underscoring the deep and historical grievances simmering beneath the surface of the country’s sectarian fault lines.

The Bedouin, who see themselves as long-marginalized stakeholders in the region, say they have been caught in the crossfire - blamed for violence they did not initiate and excluded from political life and public services.

“We are the perpetual scapegoats,” said Mohammad Abu Thulaith, a lawyer and member of the Sweida Tribal Council. A descendant of one of the Bedouin tribes long at odds with the Druze population, he told Asharq Al-Awsat that “Bedouins are the weakest link in the local power struggle.”

The sense of injustice voiced by Abu Thulaith runs deep and is rooted in historical narratives. According to his account, the Druze - who migrated to the Jabal al-Arab area around two centuries ago - gradually expanded their influence, curbing the pastoral livelihoods of the Bedouin, particularly livestock herding. This, he said, led to the forced migration of nearly half of the Bedouin tribes from the mountain region toward Jordan, rural Damascus, and Daraa.

He cited the example of Saad Hayel al-Surour, a former speaker of the Jordanian parliament, who remains a Syrian citizen to this day. His father, Hayel al-Surour, once headed the Syrian parliament before the 1958 union between Syria and Egypt.

Many in the Bedouin community consider themselves the original inhabitants of the land, victims of what they describe as “a prolonged injustice” that denied them citizenship rights, political representation, and even basic services.

Abu Thulaith argues that the source of current tensions must be addressed at its roots. “We are blamed because the other side does not dare confront the real actors behind the violence,” he said, referring to armed groups operating in the area.

He called on the Druze tribal leadership - often referred to as “the people of the mountain” - to assume responsibility for protecting the Bedouin community and ending decades of exclusion. “We’ve suffered from a double injustice,” he said. “One at the hands of the Assad regime and Baathist rule, and the other from our neighbors. We have no access to employment, no political representation, and we’re deprived of the most basic public services.”

Despite the mounting frustration, Abu Thulaith insists that the Bedouin do not seek confrontation. “We don’t have the means to fight,” he said. “All we want is to live in peace with our neighbors. No one can erase the other. Since the fall of the former regime, tribal communities have hoped the state would step in to offer protection and ensure the most basic rights.”

As tensions in Sweida continue to spiral, voices like Abu Thulaith’s are demanding a deeper national conversation about identity, land, and the future of Jabal al-Arab - one that addresses long-neglected wounds before they erupt into further conflict.

Druze Grapple with a Perpetual Identity Crisis

For Syria’s Druze minority, identity is not just a question of culture or belief, it is a matter of survival. That fear of erasure has long shaped their political instincts, social structures, and geographic presence in the country.

“The Druze, like many minorities, live with a constant sense of threat,” said Khaldoun Al-Nabbouani, a professor of political philosophy at the University of Paris and a native of Sweida. “This persistent anxiety drives them to close ranks around their identity in a collective effort of self-preservation.”

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Al-Nabbouani explained that the community’s inward turn is not only symbolic or cultural - it also manifests demographically. “Just as the Alawites are concentrated in the coastal mountains, the Druze have built their stronghold in Jabal al-Arab. It reflects a broader pattern among minorities to cluster in specific regions where they can reinforce their social cohesion and safeguard a perpetually anxious identity.”

That reflex dates back centuries. The very formation of the Druze sect, he said, was a political and cultural rebellion against traditional Islam. “Since its inception, the community has developed a deep need for internal solidarity and social insulation,” he said. “Even today, that’s visible in things like marriage practices - interfaith unions remain extremely rare.”

This insularity, he noted, extends to the political realm. The community has historically resisted the appointment of governors or officials from outside the Druze fold, a trend dating back to the 1930s and continuing into recent decades. One of the more controversial examples was the appointment of a non-Druze governor under the government of Ahmad Al-Sharaa, which sparked uproar, resignation, and a political standoff before the governor ultimately returned.

Tensions between the Druze and the central government are nothing new. Under President Adib Shishakli in the early 1950s, relations with Damascus deteriorated sharply. Shishakli accused the Druze of plotting against the state and in 1954 ordered artillery strikes on Jabal al-Arab, an assault that killed civilians, displaced families, and left deep scars that still echo in local memory.

When the Baath Party seized power in 1963, Damascus shifted tactics, pursuing what Al-Nabbouani described as a policy of “soft containment.” Symbolic appointments of Druze figures to government positions were coupled with tight security oversight in Sweida, a strategy aimed at managing rather than integrating the province.

As new waves of unrest ripple through southern Syria, the Druze community once again finds itself wrestling with existential questions caught between historical trauma, present instability, and an uncertain future.