The American and British strikes against weapons caches and camps of the Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen didn't come as a surprise after Washington and London had threatened to carry them out days earlier in response to the militias’ attacks on Red Sea shipping.
However, questions have been raised over the impact of the strikes on the Yemeni crisis and the power of the Houthis themselves.
The strikes were a precedent in the Yemeni conflict and may lead to new developments and veer the political process off its course. The United Nations had declared in December a roadmap for peace that the Yemeni warring parties were set to discuss this month.
Mark Kimmitt, former US Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the strikes succeeded in hitting their targets, even though the order to take them may have come too late.
He said it would be “interesting” to see whether the Houthis understood the consequences of their continued attacks in the Red Sea.
They must think twice before retaliating, he remarked, but added that since they are the Houthis, they will likely respond.
Kimmitt predicted that more strikes will be carried out if the initial barrage didn’t hit all their targets.
The United States carried out an additional strike against the Houthis on Friday. The guided missile destroyer Carney used Tomahawk missiles in the follow-on strike early on Saturday local time "to degrade the Houthis' ability to attack maritime vessels, including commercial vessels," the US Central Command said in a statement on X, formerly Twitter.
US and British warplanes, ships and submarines on Thursday launched missiles against targets across Yemen controlled by the militias, which have cast their maritime campaign as support for Palestinians under siege by Israel in Hamas-ruled Gaza.
Kimmitt said the Houthi escalation in response to the raids depends on what Iran wants. He stressed that the militias are being trained, equipped and supported by Tehran.
Moreover, he refuted claims by Iran that it has no control over its proxies in the region. Tehran says the groups take their decisions independently from it, while Kimmitt stated that US assessments show otherwise.
Furthermore, he added that it was necessary for the Houthis to be again designated as terrorist.
The Biden administration had removed their designation soon after it came to power, believing that the Houthis would become more moderate and less hostile.
The contrary happened, noted Kimmitt. The Houthis today are worse than they were before the designation was removed, he went to say, adding that he believes Washington may decide to blacklist them again.
Political gains
Aide to the Yemeni prime minister Ali al-Sarari said the Houthis have made political gains after the western strikes.
He explained that the militias will likely gain more support in Yemen and beyond. They will be seen in the same vein as Hamas in that they are both fighting Israel and the US because of the war on Gaza and Israel’s escalation in the occupied West Bank.
He noted the recent regional efforts, led by Saudi Arabia and Oman, to speed up the peace process in Yemen and agree on a roadmap. The western strikes will only strengthen the Houthis’ negotiations position, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.
The Houthis have gained greater support on the local and Arab levels, he continued, expecting that the peace process will probably come to a halt after the strikes.
Moreover, he doubted the strikes had really impacted the Houthis’ military capabilities, explaining that the West had warned that it would carry out the attacks, so the militias had ample time to move their weapons to safer locations, such as caves and other hideouts.
In addition, the strikes killed and wounded no more than six Houthis, which is a small figure compared to the 73 raids the West carried, meaning they weren’t very effective, he said.
Shirking responsibilities
It seems the US and its western allies are at a loss over how to protect their economic interests and achieve a political settlement in Yemen while still keeping the Houthis in the picture despite their attacks on Red Sea shipping.
Yemeni political researcher Abduljalil Alhaqab echoed al-Sarari's remarks that the western strikes will strengthen the Houthi position and claim they are confronting Israel and the West.
What is actually happening really serves Israel, the Houthis and Iran, all of whom are opposed by the Yemeni people, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Ultimately, all these developments will severely harm the Yemeni people themselves, their state and political and economic future, he lamented.
Alhaqab said the western strikes will not impact the Houthis’ military capabilities unless they are carried out over a prolonged campaign.
He said defeating the Houthis demands a military solution on the ground and support to the Yemenis from the international community. The Houthis have the means to develop their capabilities, make up for their losses and recruit more fighters, he warned.
Meanwhile, a Yemeni government official said the Houthis’ intransigence will push them to expand the confrontation, which may escalate the situation and incur greater dangers, disasters and tragedies in Yemen and the region, and allow them to shirk their responsibilities towards peace.
Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on condition of anonymity, he criticized the international community for dealing with the Red Sea tensions without consulting the legitimate Yemeni government.
He noted that the international community’s pressure on Yemen had allowed the Houthis to expand their influence over the war-torn country over the years. It is now time for it to realize that its interests cannot be secured without ending the Houthi coup and their deployment at Yemeni ports and coastal regions.
Limited impact
The Houthis have vowed to retaliate to the western strikes by attacking American and British vessels in the Red Sea. The militias’ leaders warned the two powers that they will not be the ones who decide how the fight ends.
Yemeni political researchers Salah Ali Salah said the western strikes will have a “very limited” impact on the Houthis.
Politically, the militias can escalate their tone to underscore their claims that they are confronting foreign powers, and in return, they will gain more local support and recruit more fighters, he explained.
Moreover, he said the West lost the element of surprise when it warned that it would carry out attacks in response to the Houthi attacks. The warning allowed the militias to take precautions.
Furthermore, he revealed that the strikes actually hit positions the Arab coalition had previously attacked. He speculated that the attacks could not have been aimed at weakening the Houthis’ military capabilities, but simply delivering a message.
Weakening the Houthis’ military capabilities demands operations on the ground, he went on to say.
Another political analyst warned that the Houthis will exploit the strikes to garner Arab support, including financial donations and even recruit fighters. This will only bolster Iran’s position in the region.
Tehran wants to sow division among Arabs, which will favor Israel, he told Asharq Al-Awsat from Sanaa on condition of anonymity.
The Houthis believe that the US and its allies don’t want to wage an open confrontation with them. Rather, the militias are carrying out the attacks in the Red Sea to improve their position at any negotiations table.
The days will tell what sort of confrontation is in store for the Houthis, he said, noting the fate of ISIS in Iraq which may be in wait for the militias if they continue with their intransigence and hostile behavior.
