Losses and Gains: What Next after Western Strikes against the Houthis?

The American and British strikes against weapons caches and camps of the Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen didn't come as a surprise after Washington and London had threatened to carry them out days earlier in response to the militias’ attacks on Red Sea shipping.

However, questions have been raised over the impact of the strikes on the Yemeni crisis and the power of the Houthis themselves.

The strikes were a precedent in the Yemeni conflict and may lead to new developments and veer the political process off its course. The United Nations had declared in December a roadmap for peace that the Yemeni warring parties were set to discuss this month.

Mark Kimmitt, former US Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the strikes succeeded in hitting their targets, even though the order to take them may have come too late.

He said it would be “interesting” to see whether the Houthis understood the consequences of their continued attacks in the Red Sea.

They must think twice before retaliating, he remarked, but added that since they are the Houthis, they will likely respond.

Kimmitt predicted that more strikes will be carried out if the initial barrage didn’t hit all their targets.

The United States carried out an additional strike against the Houthis on Friday. The guided missile destroyer Carney used Tomahawk missiles in the follow-on strike early on Saturday local time "to degrade the Houthis' ability to attack maritime vessels, including commercial vessels," the US Central Command said in a statement on X, formerly Twitter.

US and British warplanes, ships and submarines on Thursday launched missiles against targets across Yemen controlled by the militias, which have cast their maritime campaign as support for Palestinians under siege by Israel in Hamas-ruled Gaza.

Kimmitt said the Houthi escalation in response to the raids depends on what Iran wants. He stressed that the militias are being trained, equipped and supported by Tehran.

Moreover, he refuted claims by Iran that it has no control over its proxies in the region. Tehran says the groups take their decisions independently from it, while Kimmitt stated that US assessments show otherwise.

Furthermore, he added that it was necessary for the Houthis to be again designated as terrorist.

The Biden administration had removed their designation soon after it came to power, believing that the Houthis would become more moderate and less hostile.

The contrary happened, noted Kimmitt. The Houthis today are worse than they were before the designation was removed, he went to say, adding that he believes Washington may decide to blacklist them again.

Political gains

Aide to the Yemeni prime minister Ali al-Sarari said the Houthis have made political gains after the western strikes.

He explained that the militias will likely gain more support in Yemen and beyond. They will be seen in the same vein as Hamas in that they are both fighting Israel and the US because of the war on Gaza and Israel’s escalation in the occupied West Bank.

He noted the recent regional efforts, led by Saudi Arabia and Oman, to speed up the peace process in Yemen and agree on a roadmap. The western strikes will only strengthen the Houthis’ negotiations position, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The Houthis have gained greater support on the local and Arab levels, he continued, expecting that the peace process will probably come to a halt after the strikes.

Moreover, he doubted the strikes had really impacted the Houthis’ military capabilities, explaining that the West had warned that it would carry out the attacks, so the militias had ample time to move their weapons to safer locations, such as caves and other hideouts.

In addition, the strikes killed and wounded no more than six Houthis, which is a small figure compared to the 73 raids the West carried, meaning they weren’t very effective, he said.

Shirking responsibilities

It seems the US and its western allies are at a loss over how to protect their economic interests and achieve a political settlement in Yemen while still keeping the Houthis in the picture despite their attacks on Red Sea shipping.

Yemeni political researcher Abduljalil Alhaqab echoed al-Sarari's remarks that the western strikes will strengthen the Houthi position and claim they are confronting Israel and the West.

What is actually happening really serves Israel, the Houthis and Iran, all of whom are opposed by the Yemeni people, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Ultimately, all these developments will severely harm the Yemeni people themselves, their state and political and economic future, he lamented.

Alhaqab said the western strikes will not impact the Houthis’ military capabilities unless they are carried out over a prolonged campaign.

He said defeating the Houthis demands a military solution on the ground and support to the Yemenis from the international community. The Houthis have the means to develop their capabilities, make up for their losses and recruit more fighters, he warned.

Meanwhile, a Yemeni government official said the Houthis’ intransigence will push them to expand the confrontation, which may escalate the situation and incur greater dangers, disasters and tragedies in Yemen and the region, and allow them to shirk their responsibilities towards peace.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on condition of anonymity, he criticized the international community for dealing with the Red Sea tensions without consulting the legitimate Yemeni government.

He noted that the international community’s pressure on Yemen had allowed the Houthis to expand their influence over the war-torn country over the years. It is now time for it to realize that its interests cannot be secured without ending the Houthi coup and their deployment at Yemeni ports and coastal regions.

Limited impact

The Houthis have vowed to retaliate to the western strikes by attacking American and British vessels in the Red Sea. The militias’ leaders warned the two powers that they will not be the ones who decide how the fight ends.

Yemeni political researchers Salah Ali Salah said the western strikes will have a “very limited” impact on the Houthis.

Politically, the militias can escalate their tone to underscore their claims that they are confronting foreign powers, and in return, they will gain more local support and recruit more fighters, he explained.

Moreover, he said the West lost the element of surprise when it warned that it would carry out attacks in response to the Houthi attacks. The warning allowed the militias to take precautions.

Furthermore, he revealed that the strikes actually hit positions the Arab coalition had previously attacked. He speculated that the attacks could not have been aimed at weakening the Houthis’ military capabilities, but simply delivering a message.

Weakening the Houthis’ military capabilities demands operations on the ground, he went on to say.

Another political analyst warned that the Houthis will exploit the strikes to garner Arab support, including financial donations and even recruit fighters. This will only bolster Iran’s position in the region.

Tehran wants to sow division among Arabs, which will favor Israel, he told Asharq Al-Awsat from Sanaa on condition of anonymity.

The Houthis believe that the US and its allies don’t want to wage an open confrontation with them. Rather, the militias are carrying out the attacks in the Red Sea to improve their position at any negotiations table.

The days will tell what sort of confrontation is in store for the Houthis, he said, noting the fate of ISIS in Iraq which may be in wait for the militias if they continue with their intransigence and hostile behavior.

Visitors to Damascus today can’t miss the city’s busy, fast-paced rhythm. Traffic jams clog the main entrances, intersections, and markets, while schoolchildren dart around their parents, backpacks in hand, at the end of the school day. These scenes bring a sense of normalcy, showing that daily life continues despite the challenges.

Cars with license plates from across Syria—Raqqa, Homs, and Idlib—mix with Damascus vehicles at intersections and working traffic lights. “This is new for us,” said a local. “We didn't see cars from these areas before.”

Amid the congestion, as drivers jostled for space, the man joked: “An Idlib plate now means ‘government car’—we’d better make way.”

With traffic police largely absent, a few members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have stepped in at key intersections to direct the flow. Still, residents seem to manage on their own, relying on self-organization.

As night fell, parks, cafes, and the bustling Shaalan Street in Damascus filled with families and young people. Crowds moved between juice stands, sandwich shops, and shisha cafes, many with foreign or English-inspired names.

The famed adaptability of locals is evident in small but significant changes. People quickly adjusted to using foreign and Arab currencies, garbage collection resumed swiftly, and even rules for non-Syrians buying SIM cards were amended.

Previously, foreigners had to register with an entry stamp and local address. Now, with Syrian border controls relaxed and monitoring left to the Lebanese side, new measures ensure SIM cards remain traceable without complicating the process.

The “revolution flag” now covers private cars, taxis, and shop entrances in Damascus. Many stores are offering discounts on clothing and shoes to celebrate “victory,” while street vendors eagerly sell the new flag, urging people to buy it with cheers and congratulations.

It’s unclear who genuinely supports the change and who is simply going along to stay safe, especially among small business owners. What is certain, however, is that public spaces have moved on.

From the Lebanese border to the heart of Damascus, slogans praising Assad and the “eternity” he symbolized have been wiped away.

Posters and billboards have appeared across Damascus, especially in Umayyad Square, with messages like “Syria is for all Syrians” and “Time to build a better future.” The slogans call for unity and a shared future for all citizens.

It’s unclear if this is part of an organized campaign by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or just political improvisation.

Umayyad Square, now a “revolutionary site,” draws crowds day and night, eager to take photos near the historic monument and the abandoned statue of Hafez al-Assad. The scene speaks volumes about untold stories.

Once a key landmark of Damascus, the square is now Syria’s gateway to the world. Syrians from inside and outside the country flood social media with joyful images, while journalists and TV teams from around the globe report in multiple languages.

The atmosphere feels like the opening of “Pandora’s Box,” revealing both the good and the bad.

Journalists in the square, whom you later find in small local restaurants and hotel lobbies, bring to mind post-2003 Baghdad—another capital at a historic turning point, filled with people and emotions.

Like Baghdad, hotel lobbies here are full of contradictions, with journalists playing just a small role.

In these grand spaces, diplomats, UN staff, and translators sit alongside businessmen and contractors eager to capitalize on economic opportunities. While Damascus itself hasn't changed much, its need for basic services, especially electricity, is huge. Entire neighborhoods have been destroyed, with forced displacement, hunger, and fear almost touching the city's hotels and restaurants.

In these hotels, which have become a microcosm of Syrian society, Damascenes are meeting for the first time faction leaders and fighters from the north. Many of them, due to their circumstances, had never seen the capital or entered a hotel.

Their sense of victory is clear, but so is the confusion in their eyes and actions. For example, one might hesitate in an elevator, unsure whether to step out or stay, then greet you politely while avoiding eye contact.

In their military uniforms, with visible weapons and long beards, the fighters stand out in these historic hotels, with their elegant decor and refined staff.

This contrasts sharply with the ordinary Damascenes who visit hotel cafes and restaurants simply for peace and privacy. The fighters bridge the gap with their serious, guarded demeanor, though it softens with a joke from a friend.

Locals feel their “bubble” has burst, and their way of life has changed forever. Yet, most agree that nothing will be worse or last longer than what they’ve already experienced.

Losses and Gains: What Next after Western Strikes against the Houthis?