There appears to be consensus that the level of Houthi provocations in the Red Sea had become intolerable, whether before or after the US and Britain carried out their strikes against the Iran-backed militias in Yemen.
The Biden administration had sought to garner international consensus against the Houthis when the United Nations Security Council issued a resolution that strongly condemns their attacks against Red Sea shipping. The resolution was approved by a majority of eleven voters and the abstention of Russia, China, Algeria and Mozambique.
Observers viewed the resolution as a strong signal that the Houthis would be dealt a “calculated” strike that would not breach rules of engagement or expand the conflict in the region, which is something the US has been keen on avoiding since the war on Gaza erupted on October 7.
Luring Washington
Paul Salem, president and CEO of the Middle East Institute in Washington, said the US wanted to avoid a strike. It didn’t want to be lured into the consequences of the expansion of the conflict and become embroiled in Yemen.
In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he said the Biden administration had been against the war in Yemen from the minute it took office.
It has been trying to stop the war and even removed the Houthis off the terrorism list, he noted.
The Houthis and Iran, however, forced the US to carry out the strike given its leading role in protecting shipping lanes in the region.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies where he focuses on Iranian security and political issues, said the US strike was an attempt to restore deterrence.
He told Asharq Al-Awsat that in spite of attacking significant Houthi locations and caches, the militias probably have a lot more ammunitions and weapons concealed throughout regions under their control in Yemen.
He stated that any attack that doesn’t target the Iranian agents that help them will be “self-defeating”. Attention is now focused on the Houthis and how and where they will retaliate.
Moreover, he noted that Saudi Arabia doesn’t want the expansion of the conflict or a breach of the ceasefire in Yemen.
He also noted Bahrain’s participation in the coalition that backed the strike. It is evidence of its importance to the US that views Manama as a main partner outside of NATO.
Criticism against Biden
Several American politicians, especially Republicans and former defense officials, have been critical of the Biden administration for its delayed response in carrying out strikes against the Houthis.
Republicans have wondered why the administration hadn’t approved the military response sooner rather than later.
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said the “decision to use military force against these Iranian proxies is overdue. I am hopeful these operations mark an enduring shift in the Biden administration’s approach to Iran and its proxies.”
Last month, he warned that attacks on freedom of navigation are a direct challenge to American leadership.
Republican Senator Roger Wicker, the highest-ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said the strikes were “two months overdue”, but were a “good first step towards restoring deterrence in the Red Sea.”
Former defense officials stressed that Washington’s failure to deter Iran and its closest allies so far could lead to even more devastating attacks in the future and significant loss of American life.
“Typically, appeasement is not an effective long-term solution,” the former commander of US forces in the Middle East, retired General Kenneth McKenzie, said Wednesday.
He said it was important to inflict “pain” on the militants responsible. “And that means you’ve got to strike targets in Yemen that are important to the Houthis.”
Rep. Elissa Slotkin, vice chair of the House Armed Services intelligence and special operations subcommittee, was among the Democrats who lauded the administration’s decision to fight back.
She said the volume and complexity of Houthi activity “has made very clear to me that we need to reestablish deterrence.” That is done, she added, “by striking back at them, and you do it in a precision way, and we do everything we can to minimize civilian casualties.”
Houthis won’t change
Some analysts were doubtful the operation would have the intended effect of curbing the Red Sea attacks.
“The Houthis win by taking a US strike, no matter how heavy, and showing that they can keep going with the shipping attacks,” said Michael Knights, a scholar at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
“The Houthis are high on their successes and will not be easy to deter. They are having the time of their lives, standing up to a superpower who probably cannot deter them.”
Meanwhile, Salem said the strikes are unlikely to stop the Houthi attacks. So, indirect diplomatic efforts are underway with Iran, though mediators including Oman, to convince the Houthis to stop.
He added that now the greater concern is that the attacks in the Red Sea would have repercussions on the Gulf. Iran on Thursday seized an oil tanker, in a sign that tensions between it and Washington are on the rise, he noted.
The situation in Yemen now resembles the one in Lebanon. All parties don’t want a full-scale war, he remarked.
‘Saving face’
Adam Clements, a former US Army attaché to Yemen and former Pentagon official, warned that the strikes Thursday were unlikely to have the desired impact of deterring the Houthis, reported the Washington Post.
“Saving face is of utmost importance,” Clements said of Yemeni culture and politics, adding that “the Houthis will absolutely need to save face, and this won’t deter them, and they will conduct more strikes.”
