Abed Rabbo to Asharq Al-Awsat: Hamas’ Sinwar Was Stunned by Extent of Oct. 7 Breach

Veteran Palestinian politician Yasser Abed Rabbo speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Veteran Palestinian politician Yasser Abed Rabbo speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Abed Rabbo to Asharq Al-Awsat: Hamas’ Sinwar Was Stunned by Extent of Oct. 7 Breach

Veteran Palestinian politician Yasser Abed Rabbo speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Veteran Palestinian politician Yasser Abed Rabbo speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, mounted by Hamas on Oct.7, has left Palestinians at a critical juncture, torn between a potential new disaster and the hope for a Palestinian state.

Many questions linger: What about Hamas’ recent actions? How will Israel respond? What conditions does Hamas have for joining a peaceful settlement? And what about the Palestinian Authority’s plans for the future?

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Yasser Abed Rabbo, a key figure in Palestinian politics since the late 1960s, shared his insights into the current situation: “Palestinians are facing an unprecedented crisis, surpassing even the historic Nakba (the catastrophe) of the past.”

“Back then, the Palestinian national movement was fractured, replaced by Arab initiatives that fell short of truly safeguarding Palestinian rights,” he added.

A fresh ‘Nakba’ in a changed landscape

In this new crisis, with its flaws laid bare by recent tragedies like the war in Gaza and the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, the Palestinian national movement endures.

This movement, according to Abed Rabbo, can’t be wiped out or replaced, regardless of military outcomes. It’s not just about comparing past Israeli brutality to today’s. The tools for killing and destruction are far more advanced now, but the aim remains unchanged.

Back in 1948, around 500 Palestinian villages, towns, and cities were destroyed, with a harshness no less than what we see today.

But now, Palestinians have a stronger memory than before.

Back in 1948, they couldn't imagine being completely removed from their homeland. Today, Palestinians of all ages fear being forced out of their land again, seeing this threat as real and tangible. They’re determined to defend their land, despite the destruction in Gaza.

Among the rubble, Palestinians declare: “I won't leave my homeland.” These words reflect the awareness built up over seventy years. Palestinian self-reliance can make a significant difference now.

The world isn't entirely pro-Israel. Some Western political circles support Israel, but with hesitance and, at times, shame, said Abed Rabbo.

Even those sympathetic to Israel acknowledge that a Palestinian state is the solution. They try to downplay Israeli crimes in Gaza, past and present. Today, some call Palestinians “subhuman,” while others openly advocate for expelling Gazans and expanding settlements, he added.

Nevertheless, the world is pressing Israel for accountability like never before. The International Criminal Court’s actions are significant. Despite Israel’s history of crimes against Palestinians, it has never faced trial for genocide, remarked Abed Rabbo.

What role for Hamas?

When asked if Hamas can help solve the problem, he noted that it is hard to say unless the Palestinian group is willing to rethink some of its approaches. While Hamas has been a strong Palestinian force and a key player in past uprisings, it needs to reconsider some of its strategies for real progress.

For Hamas to stay relevant, it needs to rethink its game plan, especially after the recent Gaza tragedy, stressed Abed Rabbo.

Israel’s aim to devastate Gaza completely raises serious questions. Despite potential accusations and sanctions, Hamas must decide its next move, he went on to say.

Consider this: While Hamas faces terrorism charges, Israeli settler activities in Palestinian territories go unchecked, involving killings and destruction.

However, there’s still room for Hamas to adapt, as history has shown with other Palestinian factions like Fatah. They managed to bounce back despite setbacks. Hamas needs to engage with the world and learn from the Palestinian experience, which can’t endure repeated tragedies indefinitely, clarified Abed Rabbo.

Sinwar and Arafat’s influence

When asked if Yahya al-Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza, could accept what Yasser Arafat agreed to in the 1993 Oslo Accords, Abed Rabbo’s response was straightforward: “Yes.”

According to the veteran politician, learning from past experiences, Sinwar, unlike some ideologues, can adapt to changing situations.

Sinwar had joined Hamas during the first intifada in 1987 as part of its Islamic and resistance movement.

Another point is that the outcome of the Palestinian breach of Gaza’s borders on Oct. 7 was unexpected. It was perhaps meant to be a limited operation, involving the capture of some soldiers and minor clashes, said Abed Rabbo.

The aim was to initiate a limited confrontation with Israel, with minimal shelling and destruction, to improve conditions in Gaza under the suffocating Israeli blockade.

Abed Rabbo explained that Hamas had hoped to enhance livelihoods, economics, and possibly even secure geographical terms like a port or airport. Additionally, the movement sought conditions for Israel to accept Hamas leadership in Gaza politically.

This unexpected explosion, termed a failure by Israelis, may have surprised Sinwar and others, revealed Abed Rabbo.

Operation Al-Aqsa Flood: A military move

Regarding if he was aware of any regional timing when the Al-Aqsa Flood operation began, Abed Rabbo said no. He believes it wasn’t orchestrated by Iran or any other external force.

Hamas, according to Abed Rabbo, has ties with Iran but also seeks relations beyond that.

The Hamas leadership outside Gaza was caught off guard, leaving others, like himself, surprised, acknowledged Abed Rabbo.

Some tried to justify it as a decision by the internal military leadership, deflecting responsibility from the political leadership.

Hamas didn't anticipate Israel exploiting the situation to launch a destructive campaign, emphasized Abed Rabbo.

External forces, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, were surprised by the operation’s launch, asserted Abed Rabbo, adding that Iranian and Hezbollah leaders immediately tried to distance themselves from the operation mounted by Hamas.

Abed Rabbo also believes that the decision for launching the attack came from Hamas leaders in Gaza. They expected a smaller-scale operation and a limited Israeli response. But they were surprised by their own success and quickly capitalized on it by obtaining weapons from captives, causing a shock within Israel.

Need for renewing the Palestinian Authority

The recent events in Gaza highlight the urgent need for a fresh start in Palestinian leadership.

Keeping frank, Abed Rabbo pointed to the growing international talk about the need for a new Palestinian Authority. While some may see this as an excuse by global powers to dodge their responsibility, it's worth considering.

With a unified Palestinian leadership, including Hamas, Palestinians could have handled the situation more effectively, using all available resources to protect Palestinian interests.

It’s time to rethink priorities and strategies for a better outcome, stressed Abed Rabbo.

Missing chances to unite Palestinian forces has led to unilateral actions that caught others off guard, he lamented.

Palestinians need to seriously rebuild their unity under a single leadership and revive leadership within the national authority to navigate the current situation and seize diplomatic opportunities, advised Abed Rabbo.

Reforming the Palestinian Authority and Hamas: Are they willing?

As for whether the Palestinian Authority and Hamas could change for the better, Abed Rabbo said he thinks it is possible.

He believes Hamas needs to adapt to avoid a dire fate. Currently, the movement enjoys widespread support among Palestinians and in the Arab world.

Some argue that the conflict predates recent events, going back to the shortcomings of the 1993 Oslo Accords, which failed to curb Israeli occupation and settlement expansion.

Hamas and Fatah both have the potential, but it needs a real commitment from both sides to rethink their political approaches, said Abed Rabbo.

What Palestinians need is a government that represents national unity, not one faction over another.

Not a Hamas-led government in Gaza or a Fatah-led government in the West Bank, but a unified government embraced by all parties and trusted by Palestinians and the international community to work towards the goal of an independent Palestinian state, urged Abed Rabbo.



Iran Opts for Dialogue with Europe ahead of Trump's Return to Office

President Donald Trump shows a signed Presidential Memorandum after delivering a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, Tuesday, May 8, 2018, in Washington. (AP)
President Donald Trump shows a signed Presidential Memorandum after delivering a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, Tuesday, May 8, 2018, in Washington. (AP)
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Iran Opts for Dialogue with Europe ahead of Trump's Return to Office

President Donald Trump shows a signed Presidential Memorandum after delivering a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, Tuesday, May 8, 2018, in Washington. (AP)
President Donald Trump shows a signed Presidential Memorandum after delivering a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, Tuesday, May 8, 2018, in Washington. (AP)

It is difficult to predict what the outcomes will be of the discussions between Iran, France, Britain and Germany about Tehran’s nuclear program in Geneva on Friday.

Last week, the UN atomic watchdog's 35-nation Board of Governors passed a resolution again ordering Iran to urgently improve cooperation with the agency and requesting a "comprehensive" report aimed at pressuring Iran into fresh nuclear talks.

Britain, France, Germany and the United States, which proposed the resolution, dismissed as insufficient and insincere a last-minute Iranian move to cap its stock of uranium that is close to weapons-grade. Diplomats said Iran's move was conditional on scrapping the resolution.

Iran has been weighing its response to the censure, debating whether to increase uranium enrichment or by being open to the proposals expected at the Geneva talks.

The discussions may seek a new nuclear deal instead of the 2015 one with Tehran that is in tatters.

As it stands, Iran is likely to opt for negotiations instead of escalation due to a number of internal, regional and international reasons.

Diplomatic sources in Paris noted US President-elect Donald Trump’s appointments of officials handling Middle East affairs, underscoring their unreserved support to Israel and clear hostility to Iran.

These appointments may lead Iran to think twice before resorting to any escalation.

Even before Trump has taken office, his circles have said that the new president will take “several executive decisions related to Iran and that will be declared on his first day in office.” The decisions will be binding and do not need Congress’ approval.

However, Trump is unpredictable and the sources did not rule out the surprise possibility of him striking a deal with Iran related to its nuclear program and behavior in the Middle East. This means that Tehran will have to make major concessions, including abandoning its policy of “exporting the revolution”.

This remains a far-fatched possibility, however. In all likelihood, Washington under Trump will return to his “maximum pressure” policy against Iran on political, diplomatic and economic levels to make it return to the negotiations table and agree on a deal that completely ends its nuclear ambitions.

So, at the Geneva meeting on Friday, Tehran will seek to achieve two main goals: a nuclear breakthrough during what remains of US President Joe Biden’s time in office, and attempt to lure the European powers away from Trump.

The truth is that Tehran is wading in the unknown. One only has to go back to Trump’s past statements about how Israel should have struck Iran’s nuclear facilities during its October 26 attack on the country.

Trump has already shown Iran his hardline stance when he ordered the assassination of Quds Forces leader Qassem Soleimani near Baghdad airport in January 2020.

Based on this, Tehran is scrambling to avert a joint American-Israeli strike that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been dreaming of.

Iran is vulnerable now due to two main reasons: the Israeli strike in October weakened Iran’s air defenses and Netanyahu has said that Israeli jets can now run rampant over Iran without any worries.

And Tehran can no longer rely on its allied militias to threaten Israel with all-out war. Hamas in Gaza is no longer in a position to threaten Israel and neither is Hezbollah in Lebanon.

So, Iran now finds itself exposed and would rather turn to negotiations with Europe than risk escalation that would cost it dearly with Israel now that it can no longer rely on Hamas and Hezbollah.