Lebanon Front Shifts from Gaza Support to Open Operations

Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon are intensifying in severity and scope (AP)
Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon are intensifying in severity and scope (AP)
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Lebanon Front Shifts from Gaza Support to Open Operations

Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon are intensifying in severity and scope (AP)
Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon are intensifying in severity and scope (AP)

Military actions along the Lebanese-Israeli border are straying from the standard rules of engagement. While Hezbollah avoids large-scale operations to prevent sparking a broader conflict, Israel has surpassed previous limits set since 2006.

Tel Aviv is striking targets deep within Beirut’s suburbs, conducting assassinations, and hitting Hezbollah's facilities, even reaching the Baalbek-Hermel area near Lebanon’s borders with Syria.

Some see Hezbollah’s caution as a bid to prevent Lebanon from being dragged into a costly war. But military expert Brig. Gen. Khalid Hamadeh believes these border events reflect a shift in US-Iran relations and Iran’s evolving role in the region, illustrated by Hezbollah’s disciplined actions.

Hezbollah has been exchanging near-daily fire with Israel across Lebanon's southern border since Oct. 8, a day after Hamas attacked southern Israel, triggering a fierce Israeli land, air and sea offensive on the Gaza Strip.

Hamadeh notes that since Oct. 8 Iran has been distancing itself from the Gaza events, as evidenced by statements from Iranian leaders claiming ignorance of actions taken by their allies.

He also pointed out that while Israeli operations are escalating, Hezbollah’s response remains limited both in scope and scale. He emphasized that Hezbollah sticks to targeting Israeli military objectives within a 10-km radius, whereas Israel strikes whatever it deems fit without restraint.

He noted that these developments lead to a few key conclusions, chiefly that Hezbollah is constrained by Iran’s reluctance to escalate and by the specific weapons Tehran allows for use, such as anti-tank missiles and older-model rockets, without the ability to escalate further.

The situation on the ground in southern Lebanon cannot be separated from broader political and military shifts in the region.

Dr. Sami Nader, Director of the Levant Center for Strategic Affairs, connected the developments in southern Lebanon to regional escalation affecting the Lebanese-Israeli front.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Nader noted Israel’s escalation is primarily aimed at diverting attention from the devastation in Gaza, which has significantly affected global perceptions of Israel.

The clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have intensified since early October, moving from strikes in open areas to exchanges of fire targeting exposed military sites on both sides.

However, Israel has escalated further with surprise operations, including assassinations of key Hezbollah figures. The party has responded with limited strikes on Israeli military positions but hasn’t matched the intensity of Israeli attacks.

Hamadeh believes that Israel’s military and intelligence performance has shifted the battle from skirmishes to real confrontations, resulting in significant destruction and casualties on the Lebanese side.

However, he predicted that Hezbollah’s operations will continue to escalate cautiously, and Iran won't risk its influence in Lebanon until after the US presidential election.



As Trump Seeks to Be a Peacemaker, Netanyahu Leaves Washington without Breakthrough on Gaza Deal

 Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, left, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, arrive for a meeting at the Pentagon, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, in Washington. (AP)
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, left, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, arrive for a meeting at the Pentagon, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, in Washington. (AP)
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As Trump Seeks to Be a Peacemaker, Netanyahu Leaves Washington without Breakthrough on Gaza Deal

 Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, left, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, arrive for a meeting at the Pentagon, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, in Washington. (AP)
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, left, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, arrive for a meeting at the Pentagon, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, in Washington. (AP)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s trip to Washington this week netted President Donald Trump another nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize he covets, but the ceasefire the US leader sought for the war in Gaza didn't emerge.

Despite Trump throwing his weight behind a push for a 60-day truce between Israel and Hamas, no breakthrough was announced during Netanyahu's visit, a disappointment for a president who wants to be known as a peacemaker and has hinged his reputation on being a dealmaker.

“He prides himself or being able to make deals, so this is another test case,” said Rachel Brandenburg, the Israel Policy Forum's Washington managing director and senior fellow.

Trump’s ability to strike a ceasefire deal in the 21-month war will reveal the boundaries of his influence with Netanyahu, especially after their recent joint strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities that both leaders touted at the White House this week.

Beyond the back-to-back meetings Trump and Netanyahu had at the White House this week, there was little public evidence of progress at a time when the Republican US president is pushing to end the fighting.

‘Closer than we’ve been,’ but challenges remain

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday that when it comes to a ceasefire in Gaza, “we’re closer than we’ve been in quite a while and we’re hopeful, but we also recognize there’s still some challenges in the way.”

Rubio, who spoke to reporters while traveling in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, also said that Trump “wants to see a ceasefire and we’ve invested a lot of time and energy.”

Beyond ending the bloodshed, ending the war in Gaza would give Trump more leeway to strike some of the broader agreements he seeks in the Middle East, such as expanding the Abraham Accords that started in his first term and normalizing relations with Syria’s new government.

“He wants to be the one who gets hostages home and see the war in Gaza end so he can move on to some of these bigger deals,” Brandenburg said.

Even if a truce is reached, Netanyahu has promised fighting will continue if necessary until Hamas is destroyed. The group, meanwhile, has conditioned the release of the remaining hostages on Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, a stipulation Israel has been unwilling to accept.

Trump-Netanyahu relationship sees a rebound

It’s unclear how much pressure Trump put on Netanyahu in their private talks this week. But the two leaders came into the visit seeming more aligned than ever — at least for now — fresh off the president having twice come to the Israeli leader’s assistance.

Trump made the risky move to join Israel’s attacks on Iran last month, delivering pivotal US firepower while alarming world leaders and some of Trump’s “America first” supporters. Trump also inserted himself into Israel’s domestic affairs, calling for Netanyahu’s yearslong corruption trial to be thrown out.

That’s a marked turnaround in their relationship, which had appeared somewhat strained in recent years.

Trump shocked some of his fellow Republicans and staunch supporters of Israel by publicly criticizing Netanyahu not long after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, setting off the conflict.

He said that Netanyahu “was not prepared” for the attack from Hamas and that Netanyahu had “let us down” just before the US killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in 2020.

Even during his last visit to the White House earlier this year, Netanyahu seemed caught off guard when Trump announced the US would hold talks with Iran over its nuclear deal rather than embrace Netanyahu’s push for military pressure.

With their military objectives aligning for a time on Iran, the Israeli leader has worked to foster a warmer relationship.

In a video he released after the US strikes, Netanyahu spoke — in English instead of Hebrew — of the “unshakeable alliance” between their countries while repeatedly praising Trump.

“His leadership today has created a pivot of history that can help lead the Middle East and beyond to a future of prosperity and peace,” Netanyahu said.

Netanyahu tries the charm offensive on Trump

In his visit to Washington this week, the Israeli leader also showed he knows how to praise the president in a way that matters greatly to him when he unveiled a letter in front of reporters and cameras to announce he had nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize.

Those gestures, though, may only carry him so far as Trump pushes for a deal that Netanyahu may not be able to accept.

“I think if Netanyahu stands in the way too much for too long of the sort of loftier objectives Trump has set out for himself,” Brandenburg said, “Netanyahu will be cast aside as more of a problem than an asset.”

Netanyahu, like many Israelis, believes Trump is the greatest friend they have ever had in the White House and is deeply grateful for the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites last month.

But the Israeli leader is also under mounting public pressure to end the war as hostages languish in captivity and more Israeli soldiers are killed in guerrilla-style attacks.

Israel’s military success against Iran has given him some political capital, but if he ends the war while leaving Hamas intact, he will have broken his repeated promise of “total victory.”

His far-right coalition partners have threatened to bolt if he does that, sparking early elections that could end his nearly unbroken 16 years in power and leave him more vulnerable to long-standing corruption charges.

That may prove too heavy a price for delivering the kind of lasting ceasefire sought by Trump and demanded by Hamas. Instead, Netanyahu, who is seen as a masterful politician by friends and foes alike, is expected to thread the needle.

In a video statement on Thursday, Netanyahu said that he would agree to a “temporary” 60-day ceasefire in return for the release of half the hostages remaining in Gaza, many of whom are believed dead, and that he would begin negotiations on ending the war.

But he conditioned any lasting ceasefire on Hamas giving up its arms – something the fighters have refused to do as long as Israel occupies parts of Gaza.

If Hamas can be disarmed through negotiations, “so much the better,” Netanyahu said. “If it is not achieved through negotiations in 60 days, we will achieve it in other ways — by using force.”