Military actions along the Lebanese-Israeli border are straying from the standard rules of engagement. While Hezbollah avoids large-scale operations to prevent sparking a broader conflict, Israel has surpassed previous limits set since 2006.
Tel Aviv is striking targets deep within Beirut’s suburbs, conducting assassinations, and hitting Hezbollah's facilities, even reaching the Baalbek-Hermel area near Lebanon’s borders with Syria.
Some see Hezbollah’s caution as a bid to prevent Lebanon from being dragged into a costly war. But military expert Brig. Gen. Khalid Hamadeh believes these border events reflect a shift in US-Iran relations and Iran’s evolving role in the region, illustrated by Hezbollah’s disciplined actions.
Hezbollah has been exchanging near-daily fire with Israel across Lebanon's southern border since Oct. 8, a day after Hamas attacked southern Israel, triggering a fierce Israeli land, air and sea offensive on the Gaza Strip.
Hamadeh notes that since Oct. 8 Iran has been distancing itself from the Gaza events, as evidenced by statements from Iranian leaders claiming ignorance of actions taken by their allies.
He also pointed out that while Israeli operations are escalating, Hezbollah’s response remains limited both in scope and scale. He emphasized that Hezbollah sticks to targeting Israeli military objectives within a 10-km radius, whereas Israel strikes whatever it deems fit without restraint.
He noted that these developments lead to a few key conclusions, chiefly that Hezbollah is constrained by Iran’s reluctance to escalate and by the specific weapons Tehran allows for use, such as anti-tank missiles and older-model rockets, without the ability to escalate further.
The situation on the ground in southern Lebanon cannot be separated from broader political and military shifts in the region.
Dr. Sami Nader, Director of the Levant Center for Strategic Affairs, connected the developments in southern Lebanon to regional escalation affecting the Lebanese-Israeli front.
Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Nader noted Israel’s escalation is primarily aimed at diverting attention from the devastation in Gaza, which has significantly affected global perceptions of Israel.
The clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have intensified since early October, moving from strikes in open areas to exchanges of fire targeting exposed military sites on both sides.
However, Israel has escalated further with surprise operations, including assassinations of key Hezbollah figures. The party has responded with limited strikes on Israeli military positions but hasn’t matched the intensity of Israeli attacks.
Hamadeh believes that Israel’s military and intelligence performance has shifted the battle from skirmishes to real confrontations, resulting in significant destruction and casualties on the Lebanese side.
However, he predicted that Hezbollah’s operations will continue to escalate cautiously, and Iran won't risk its influence in Lebanon until after the US presidential election.
