What's in Israel's Three-Phase Gaza Ceasefire Roadmap
US President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the conviction of former US President Donald J. Trump on 34 felony counts in his hush money trial, before announcing a proposal for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 31 May 2024. EPA/MICHAEL REYNOLDS / POOL
What's in Israel's Three-Phase Gaza Ceasefire Roadmap
US President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the conviction of former US President Donald J. Trump on 34 felony counts in his hush money trial, before announcing a proposal for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 31 May 2024. EPA/MICHAEL REYNOLDS / POOL
US President Joe Biden unveiled a three-phase Israeli proposal to end the war in Gaza on Friday, which includes a ceasefire and the release of hostages held by Hamas, said AFP.
Here are the key elements of the "comprehensive" plan that the 81-year-old called a "roadmap to an enduring ceasefire."
- Phase One -
Biden said the first phase includes a "full and complete ceasefire" lasting six weeks, with Israeli forces withdrawing from "all populated areas of Gaza."
Hamas would release "a number" of hostages captured in the October 7 attacks on Israel, including women, the elderly and the wounded. The remains of some hostages who had been killed would also be returned.
US hostages held by Hamas would also be freed, Biden said, adding that "we want them home."
Hundreds of Palestinian prisoners would be released in exchange.
Palestinian civilians would be allowed to return to their "homes and neighborhoods" throughout Gaza, including in the north, which has been devastated by months of Israeli bombing.
Humanitarian aid would "surge" to 600 trucks a day entering Gaza, while the international community would deliver hundreds of thousands of temporary shelters and housing units.
During the initial six-week period, Israel and Hamas would "negotiate the necessary arrangements to get to phase two, which is a permanent end to hostilities."
The ceasefire would also be extended if the negotiations continue, with mediators the United States, Egypt and Qatar working to ensure they continue, Biden said.
Phase Two
Israeli forces would completely withdraw from Gaza under the second phase of the plan, lasting around another six weeks.
Hamas would release "all remaining living hostages" including male Israeli soldiers. This has been a key sticking point for Hamas in the past.
If both sides keep to the deal it will lead to the "cessation of hostilities permanently," Biden quoted the Israeli proposal as saying.
Phase Three
A major reconstruction and stabilization plan for Gaza would begin, backed by the US and the international community.
Homes, schools and hospitals would be rebuilt, Biden said. He would also work with regional partners to ensure it happens in a way that "does not allow Hamas to re-arm."
The reconstruction phase would take between three and five years, a senior US official said.
The final remains of any hostages who had been killed would be returned in the third phase.
What if it goes wrong?
Biden said that if Hamas "fails to fulfill its commitments under the deal, Israel can resume military operations."
But he added that Egypt and Qatar would work to make Hamas stick to the terms, while the United States would do the same for Israel.
Saudi Arabia launched its Vision 2030 in 2016. (AP)
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Arab Gulf in 25 Years: Prosperity in a Region on Fire
Saudi Arabia launched its Vision 2030 in 2016. (AP)
Dr. Ibrahim Al-Othaimin*
I like to refer to Henry Kissinger in summing up the reality experienced in the region over the past quarter century. In his book, “World Order: Reflections on the Character of Nations and the Course of History”, the former US secretary of state said “the Middle East is caught in a confrontation akin to—but broader than—Europe’s pre-Westphalian wars of religion. Domestic and international conflicts reinforce each other. Political, sectarian, tribal, territorial, ideological, and traditional national-interest disputes merge.”
The wars, he added, were caused by the collapse of the state and their transformation into fertile ground for terrorism and weapons smuggling. The collapse will subsequently lead to the breakup of the regional and world orders.
The Arab region witnessed unprecedented developments in the past 25 years that have altered its features and impacted the structure of its regional order. The Arab Gulf countries were at the heart of these developments. Despite the regional and international threats, they managed to maintain their internal stability and consolidate their pivotal role in achieving regional balance, underscoring their position as the cornerstone of security and stability in the region.
The September 11, 2001, attacks changed the shape of the world. (Reuters file)
First wars of the 21st Century
The September 11, 2001, attacks marked the beginning of the first wars of the 21st Century that would go on to change global security equations. They would also lead to massive pressure on the region by the terrorist al-Qaeda organization. The developments were a real turning point in global counter-terrorism efforts.
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf were victims of a series of terrorist attacks in the past decades that targeted their security and stability. The worst of the attacks targeted a refinery in the city of Yanbu. It was carried out by Mustafa al-Ansari, an al-Qaeda member who had taken part in fighting in Afghanistan and Somalia. Another attack targeted Halliburton offices in the city of Khobar.
The Gulf countries responded to these challenges by taking firm counter-terrorism measures and launching efforts to dry their sources of funding. In 2002, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries approved a joint security strategy to combat terrorism.
In 2004, Gulf countries signed a counter-terrorism agreement during a meeting of interior ministers in Kuwait. The agreements established a legal framework for GCC efforts to bolster coordination between their members. In 2006, they set up a permanent security committee tasked with combating terror. The committee meets regularly to address terrorism-related issues and to bolster joint security cooperation.
The 2003 US invasion of Iraq was one the landmark moments in the war on terror. It forever changed the shape of the region, paving the way for a new chapter of unrest. The toppling of Saddam Hussein’s regime led to security vacuum that gave way for sectarian divisions and increased Iran’s influence, creating instability in the region.
Even though the Gulf countries opposed the invasion and stressed the need to respect international laws, they found themselves having to confront its fallout. On the political level, they expressed their concern over Iran’s growing influences and intensified their efforts to back Iraq’s unity, stability, sovereignty and independence. They supported the political process that was led by the UN, including holding legislative elections and the ratification of a new constitution.
On the security level, the Gulf countries sought to bolster their defense capabilities, intensify intelligence cooperation and boost security partnerships with the US to counter Iran's influence.
A US soldier covers a Saddam Hussein statue with an American flag in Baghdad on April 5, 2003. (AFP)
Major collapses
The region was soon swept by the 2011 so-called “Arab Spring” protests. The Gulf was again put to the test of maintaining its internal security and stability amid the major collapses of regimes and rulers across the region, starting with Tunisia, then Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen.
These developments led to the collapse of political systems and the fragmentation of the countries’ social and political structures. Chaos reigned, leading to unrest and protests, which were fertile ground for the emergence of terrorist groups and foreign meddling that seek their interests at the expense of regional stability.
The Gulf countries feared that these changes would lead to the spread of so-called political Islamist ideology in the Arab world. They approached the “Arab Spring” from a deep strategic view and with total awareness of the challenges at hand. This allowed them to take calculated steps that preserved their internal stability and regional roles. The countries also worked on consolidating internal unity and listened to the demands of the people to ensure that stability is maintained.
On the regional level, the Gulf contained the impact of the crises through supporting allied countries that were affected by the unrest. They also intervened directly in some countries, such as Yemen and Bahrain, to preserve stability and avert the spread of chaos.
After more than a decade since the “Arab Spring” developments, their impact is still very much felt to this day in several countries in the region. Throughout, the Gulf countries managed to maintain their stability and present themselves as a regional force that can help in confronting chaos and unrest.
The crises in Gaza and Lebanon have topped the concerns of Gulf countries. (SPA)
COVID-19
No sooner had the region caught its breath after the unrest than it was confronted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The world was faced with an unprecedented threat that helped reshape health and economic priorities and left a lasting impact on various levels.
The Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, handled the crisis with extraordinary skill. From the very first moment the virus emerged, the Kingdom took firm measures and offered healthcare to everyone without exception. It provided free treatment, expanded its healthcare sector and rapidly launched vaccination campaigns that were commended by international organizations.
Despite the pandemic’s impact on the global economy and oil prices, the Gulf countries’ preemptive long-term plans and strategies, which called for easing reliance on oil, such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, allowed them to weather the storm. The Gulf countries showed vigilant leadership and an exceptional ability to adapt during the pandemic, allowing them to protect their people and preserve their economic and social stability.
Prosperity amid regional tumult
The region is now confronted with a new wave of escalation, especially amid the war on Gaza and the possibility that the conflict may spread in the Middle East. It also has to contend with the fallout of the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria.
Amid these changes, the Gulf countries have again proven their ability to adapt by presenting effective diplomatic initiatives and deepening international coordination with the aim of consolidating stability in the region.
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the war on Gaza remain a top priority. The Gulf countries have repeatedly called for ending the conflict. They have backed international and regional efforts to reach a peaceful resolution based on the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative and implementing the two-state solution.
In Lebanon, as tensions rise with Hezbollah, the Gulf countries have continued to support efforts that would bolster Lebanon’s sovereignty and stability through international coordination aimed at the implementation of UN Security Council resolution 1701.
The Gulf region is also preparing to deal with post-Assad Syria, hoping to help in the country’s reconstruction to establish it as a stable state that shuns Iranian meddling. The goal demands critical coordination with regional and international partners to ensure that stability is restored to Damascus and the entire region.
*Dr. Al-Othaimin is a researcher in foreign relations.
