Could Kamala Harris Beat Donald Trump in November’s Presidential Race?

She worries Republican donors, has name recognition, and Democratic Party heavyweights are beginning to line up behind her.

Vice President Kamala Harris would be President Joe Biden's natural successor if he bowed to growing pressure and stepped aside as the Democratic candidate in the 2024 election, top Democrats say.

Now party donors, activists and officials are asking: Does she have a better chance than Biden of beating Donald Trump? Biden is staying in the race, he has said repeatedly.

Harris, 59, a former US senator and California attorney general, would be the first woman to become president of the United States if she were the party's nominee and prevailed in the Nov. 5 election. She is the first African American and Asian person to serve as vice president.

Her three-and-a-half-year White House tenure has been characterized by a lackluster start, staff turnover, and early policy portfolios including migration from Central America that did not produce major successes.

As recently as last year, many inside the White House and the Biden campaign team privately worried Harris was a liability for the campaign. The situation has changed significantly since then, Democratic officials have said, as she stepped forward on abortion rights and courted young voters.

SOME POLLS FAVOR HARRIS

Recent polls suggest Harris could do better than Biden against Trump, the Republican candidate, although she would face a tight contest.

A CNN poll released on July 2 found voters favor Trump over Biden by six percentage points, 49% to 43%. Harris also trailed Trump, 47% to 45%, within the margin of error.

It also found independents back Harris 43%-40% over Trump, and moderate voters of both parties prefer her 51-39%.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll after last week's televised debate between Trump and a faltering Biden found Harris and Trump were nearly tied, with 42% supporting her and 43% backing him.

Only former first lady Michelle Obama, who has never expressed any interest in getting into the race, polled higher among possible alternatives to Biden.

Internal polling shared by the Biden campaign after the debate shows Harris with the same odds as Biden of beating Trump, with 45% of voters saying they would vote for her versus 48% for Trump.

Influential Democrats including US Representative Jim Clyburn, the man who was key to Biden's 2020 win; Rep. Gregory Meeks, a New York congressman and senior member of the Congressional Black Caucus and Summer Lee, a House Democrat from Pennsylvania have signaled Harris would be the best option to lead the ticket if Biden chooses to step aside.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has also privately signaled the same to lawmakers, a Congressional aide said.

Harris is taken so seriously, two Republican donors told Reuters they would prefer for Trump to face Biden than her.

"I would prefer Biden to stay in place" rather than be replaced by Harris, said Pauline Lee, a fundraiser for Trump in Nevada after the June 27 debate, who said she thought Biden had proved himself to be "incompetent."

And some on Wall Street, an important Democratic fundraising center, are starting to indicate a preference.

"Biden is already behind Trump, and is unlikely to be able to overcome that gap given where his campaign is currently. Having VP Harris likely improves Democrats' odds of taking the White House," said Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group, a financial services company, after the debate. "There's potentially more upside for her chances than Biden's at this point."

A majority of Americans see Harris in a negative light, as they do both men running for president.

Polling outlet Five Thirty Eight said 37.1% of voters approve of Harris and 49.6% disapprove. Those numbers compare to 36.9% and 57.1% for Biden, and 38.6% and 53.6% for Trump.

WOMEN, BLACK VOTERS, GAZA

Since the Supreme Court repealed women's constitutional right to abortion in 2022, Harris has become the Biden administration's foremost voice on reproductive rights, an issue Democrats are betting on to help them win the 2024 election.

Some Democrats believe Harris could energize Democratic-leaning groups whose enthusiasm for Biden has faded, including Black voters, young voters and those who do not approve of Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war.

"She would energize the Black, brown, and Asian Pacific members of our coalition...she would immediately pull the dispirited youth of our country back into the fold," said Tim Ryan, a former Democratic Congressman from Ohio, in a recent op-ed.

Democratic and Republican suburban women may also be more comfortable with her then Trump or Biden, he said.

As vice president, Harris's public Israel strategy is identical to Biden's, although she was the first senior leader of the US government to call for a ceasefire in March.

"Simply swapping out the candidate does not address the central concern" of the movement, said Abbas Alawieh, a member of the national "Uncommitted" movement that withheld votes for Biden in the primary based on his support of Israel.

If Biden were to step aside, there could be a competition between other Democrats to become the nominee.

If the party were then to choose another candidate over Harris, some Democrats say it could lose the support of many Black voters who were critical to Biden's election win in 2020.

"There is no alternative besides Kamala Harris," said Adrianne Shropshire, executive director of Black voter outreach group BlackPAC.

"If the Democratic Party thinks that they have problems now with their base being confused... Jump over the Black woman, the vice president, and I don't think the Democratic Party actually recovers."

TOO LEFTY?

However, Harris may struggle to reel in moderate Democrats and the independent voters who like Biden's centrist policies, some Democratic donors said. Both parties seek independents to help pull them over the finishing line in presidential elections.

"Her greatest weakness is that her public brand has been associated with the far left wing of the Democratic Party ... and the left wing of the Democratic party cannot win a national election," said Dmitri Mehlhorn, a fundraiser and adviser to LinkedIn co-founder and Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman. "That is the challenge that she will have to overcome if she is the nominee."

Harris would take over money raised by the Biden campaign and inherit campaign infrastructure, a critical advantage with just four months before election day on Nov. 5.

But any Democratic campaign still needs to raise hundreds of millions of dollars more before November to be successful, strategists say. And there, Harris could be a liability.

"I can tell you we have a really tough time raising money for her" said a source at the Democratic National Committee.

As a presidential candidate ahead of the 2020 election, Harris lagged Biden in raising money. She dropped out of the race in December 2019, the same month her campaign reported $39.3 million in total contributions. Biden's campaign reported $60.9 million in the same period.

However, Biden's campaign raised a record $48 million in the 24 hours after he named Harris as his running mate in 2020.

Harris's prosecutorial background could shine in a head-to-head debate against Trump, some Democrats said.

"She is incredibly focused and forceful and smart, and if she prosecutes the case against the criminality of Donald Trump, she will rip him apart," said Mehlhorn.

Republican attacks on Harris are ramping up as she has been floated as a possible Biden replacement. Conservative talking heads are re-circulating criticism leveled at her during the 2020 race, including from some Democrats, that Harris laughs too much, that she is untested, and unqualified.

Kelly Dittmar, a political science professor at Rutgers University, said the attacks are part of a long history of objectifying and denigrating women of color in politics.

"Unfortunately, the reliance on both racist and sexist attacks and tropes against women running for office is historically common and persists to this day," said Dittmar.

Six weeks into a ceasefire that halted the war between Israel and Hezbollah, many displaced Lebanese whose homes were destroyed in the fighting want to rebuild — but reconstruction and compensation are slow in coming, The Associated Press reported.
Large swaths of southern and eastern Lebanon, as well as Beirut’s southern suburbs, lie in ruins, tens of thousands of houses reduced to rubble in Israeli airstrikes. The World Bank estimated in a report in November — before the ceasefire later that month — that losses to Lebanon's infrastructure amount to some $3.4 billion.
In the south, residents of dozens of villages along the Lebanon-Israel border can't go back because Israeli soldiers are still there. Under the US-negotiated ceasefire deal, Israeli forces are supposed to withdraw by Jan. 26 but there are doubts they will.
Other terms of the deal are also uncertain — after Hezbollah's withdrawal, the Lebanese army is to step in and dismantle the militants' combat positions in the south. Israeli officials have complained the Lebanese troops are not moving in fast enough — to which they say the Israeli troops need to get out first.
Reconstruction prospects — and who will foot the bill — remain unclear.
In 2006, after the monthlong Israel-Hezbollah war, Hezbollah financed much of the $2.8 billion reconstruction with ally Iran's support.
The Lebanese militant group has said it would do so again and has begun making some payments. But Hezbollah, which is also a powerful political party, has suffered significant losses in this latest war and for its part, Iran is now mired in a crippling economic crisis.
The cash-strapped and long paralyzed Lebanese government is in little position to help and international donors may be stretched by the post-war needs in the Gaza Strip and neighboring Syria.
Many Lebanese say they are waiting for Hezbollah's promised compensation. Others say they received some money from the group — much less than the cost of the damage to their homes.
Manal, a 53-year-old mother of four from the southern village of Marjayoun has been displaced with her family for over a year, since Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on Oct. 8, 2023, in support of its ally Hamas in Gaza.
Israel responded with shelling and airstrikes in southern Lebanon. In July, Manal's family heard that their home was destroyed. The family has now sought compensation from Hezbollah.
“We haven’t received any money yet,” said Manal, giving only her first name for fear of reprisals. “Maybe our turn hasn’t arrived."
On a recent day in southern Beirut, where airstrikes had hit just 100 meters (yards) away from his home, Mohammad watched as an excavator cleared debris, dust swirling in the air.
He said his father went to Hezbollah officials and got $2,500 — not enough to cover $4,000 worth of damage to their home.
“Dad took the money and left, thinking it was pointless to argue,” said Mohammad, who also gave only his first name for fear of repercussions. He said his uncle was offered only $194 for a similarly damaged home.
When the uncle complained, Mohammad said, Hezbollah asked him, “We sacrificed our blood, what did you do in the war?”
Others, however, say Hezbollah has compensated them fairly.
Abdallah Skaiki, whose home — also in southern Beirut — was completely destroyed, said he received $14,000 from Qard Al-Hasan, a Hezbollah-linked microfinance institution.
Hussein Khaireddine, director of Jihad Binaa, the construction arm of Hezbollah, said the group is doing as much as it can. Its teams have surveyed over 80% of damaged houses across Lebanon, he said.
“We have begun compensating families,” he said. “We have also started providing payments for a year’s rent and compensations for furniture.”
Khaireddin said their payments include $8,000 for furniture and $6,000 for a year’s rent for those living in Beirut. Those who are staying elsewhere get $4,000 in money for rent.
Blueprints for each house are being prepared, he said, declining to elaborate on reconstruction plans.
“We are not waiting for the government," he added. “But of course, we urge the state to act."
There is little the government can do.
The World Bank's report from mid-November said Lebanon's infrastructure and economic losses from the war amount to $8.5 billion. And that estimate doesn't take into account the last month of the war, Deputy Prime Minister Saadi Chami told The Associated Press.
“The government does not have the financial resources for reconstruction,” he said bluntly.
The World Bank said 99,209 housing units were damaged — and 18% of them were completely destroyed. In southern Beirut suburbs alone, satellite analysis by Lebanon’s National Center for Natural Hazards and Early Warning identified 353 buildings completely destroyed and over 6,000 homes damaged.
Lebanese officials have appealed to the international community for funding. The government is working with the World Bank to get an updated damage assessment and hopes to set up a multi-donor trust fund.
The World Bank is also exploring an “emergency project for Lebanon,” focused on targeted assistance for areas most in need, Chami said, though no concrete plan has yet emerged.
“If the World Bank gets involved, it will hopefully encourage the international community to donate money,” Chami said.
Ali Daamoush, a Hezbollah official, said earlier this month that the group has mobilized 145 reconstruction teams, which include 1,250 engineers, 300 data analysts and hundreds of auditors — many apparently volunteers.
The compensations paid so far have come from “the Iranian people,” Daamoush said, without specifying if the money was from Iran's government or private donors.
Jana, a 29-year-old architect, is volunteering with Hezbollah teams to survey the damage to her hometown of Nabatiyeh in southern Lebanon. Much of the city is destroyed, including an Ottoman-era market. Her father’s warehouse was hit by airstrikes, and all the medical supplies stored there were consumed by a fire.
Hezbollah officials "told us not to promise people or discuss reconstruction because there is no clear plan or funding for it yet,” she told the AP. She did not give her last name because she wasn't authorized to talk about Hezbollah's actions.

Could Kamala Harris Beat Donald Trump in November’s Presidential Race?