Experts: Spy Network within Hezbollah Has Helped Israel Assassinate Top Members

This picture released on Wednesday, July 31, 2024 by Hezbollah Military Media shows Fouad Shukur a Hezbollah top commander who was killed by an Israeli airstrike that hit a building on Tuesday, July 30, 2024, in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon. (Hezbollah Military Media vía AP)
This picture released on Wednesday, July 31, 2024 by Hezbollah Military Media shows Fouad Shukur a Hezbollah top commander who was killed by an Israeli airstrike that hit a building on Tuesday, July 30, 2024, in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon. (Hezbollah Military Media vía AP)
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Experts: Spy Network within Hezbollah Has Helped Israel Assassinate Top Members

This picture released on Wednesday, July 31, 2024 by Hezbollah Military Media shows Fouad Shukur a Hezbollah top commander who was killed by an Israeli airstrike that hit a building on Tuesday, July 30, 2024, in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon. (Hezbollah Military Media vía AP)
This picture released on Wednesday, July 31, 2024 by Hezbollah Military Media shows Fouad Shukur a Hezbollah top commander who was killed by an Israeli airstrike that hit a building on Tuesday, July 30, 2024, in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon. (Hezbollah Military Media vía AP)

Several questions have been raised about Israel's ability to assassinate top Hezbollah operatives. The latest was the assassination on Tuesday of top commander Fouad Shukur in the party’s stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Many people have wondered how Israel has managed to pinpoint Shukur’s exact location at a time when Hezbollah commanders should be exercising extreme caution after Israel vowed to avenge the killing of 12 youths in an attack on Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend. Hezbollah has denied its involvement in the strike.

Wealth of information

Founder and CEO of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) Riad Kahwaji told Asharq Al-Awsat that several advanced technologies are used in spy operations, such as monitoring mobile phones, face recognition cameras, drones and satellites.

However, this technology is useless to the Israelis without information about members of Hezbollah, such where they live, their telephone number and how they actually look like, he explained.

Informants and spies are on the ground to help in these assassinations, he stressed.

“Assuming that Hezbollah leaders are not using mobile phones, the only way to know that Shukur was in the targeted building was if someone had followed him and informed the Israelis of his location,” he went on to say.

There is no doubt that Israel has greatly infiltrated Hezbollah and knows its security measures, allowing it to have committed this number of assassinations of senior figures, as well as members who are not known to the public, but only to the party, Kahwaji said.

Network of agents

Retired general George Nader agrees with Kahwaji that Hezbollah has been infiltrated by a complex network of spies.

Without this network, how could Israeli drones have possibly targeted a Hezbollah member as soon as he crossed a certain location? he wondered in remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat.

No regular person could possibly know the movement of these commanders and their locations. These networks of agents are inside the party in Lebanon, as well as in Syria and Iran, he stated.

Lax measures

Head of the Middle East Center for Strategic Studies retired Brigadier General Dr. Hisham Jaber noted that there are a number of factors that have led to the success of Israeli assassinations.

Hezbollah has been breached and its agents have infiltrated the party, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The Israelis also have data on all the Lebanese people, including members of the resistance [Hezbollah] and its leaders. It boasts advanced technology, satellites and the support of American and European intelligence.

Lax security measures by some members of Hezbollah are also another factor that have led to assassinations, he remarked.

Given the tensions in wake of the Majdal Shams attack, a senior member such as Shukur should not have been at his home or at a place he often frequents, he explained.

Notable assassinations

Israel has succeeded since November in carrying out a number of assassinations against Hezbollah.

In November, it assassinated the son of Hezbollah MP Mohammed Raad and four others, who are members of the al-Radwan unit. They were killed in a drone strike that targeted a house they were in.

On January 2, Israel assassinated leading Hamas member Saleh al-Arouri in a strike in the heart of Hezbollah’s stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburbs. It fired rockets at an apartment where he was meeting with Qassam Brigades field commanders.

Days later, on January 8, Israel succeeded in killing Radwan unit commander Wissam Taweel while he was returning home to a southern Lebanon village. It killed prominent members Taleb Abdullah in June and Mohammed Nasser in July.



Legal Threats Close in on Israel's Netanyahu, Could Impact Ongoing Wars

The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT
The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT
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Legal Threats Close in on Israel's Netanyahu, Could Impact Ongoing Wars

The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT
The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces legal perils at home and abroad that point to a turbulent future for the Israeli leader and could influence the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, analysts and officials say.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) stunned Israel on Thursday by issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the 13-month-old Gaza conflict. The bombshell came less than two weeks before Netanyahu is due to testify in a corruption trial that has dogged him for years and could end his political career if he is found guilty. He has denied any wrongdoing. While the domestic bribery trial has polarized public opinion, the prime minister has received widespread support from across the political spectrum following the ICC move, giving him a boost in troubled times.
Netanyahu has denounced the court's decision as antisemitic and denied charges that he and Gallant targeted Gazan civilians and deliberately starved them.
"Israelis get really annoyed if they think the world is against them and rally around their leader, even if he has faced a lot of criticism," said Yonatan Freeman, an international relations expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
"So anyone expecting that the ICC ruling will end this government, and what they see as a flawed (war) policy, is going to get the opposite," he added.
A senior diplomat said one initial consequence was that Israel might be less likely to reach a rapid ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon or secure a deal to bring back hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza.
"This terrible decision has ... badly harmed the chances of a deal in Lebanon and future negotiations on the issue of the hostages," said Ofir Akunis, Israel's consul general in New York.
"Terrible damage has been done because these organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas ... have received backing from the ICC and thus they are likely to make the price higher because they have the support of the ICC," he told Reuters.
While Hamas welcomed the ICC decision, there has been no indication that either it or Hezbollah see this as a chance to put pressure on Israel, which has inflicted huge losses on both groups over the past year, as well as on civilian populations.
IN THE DOCK
The ICC warrants highlight the disconnect between the way the war is viewed here and how it is seen by many abroad, with Israelis focused on their own losses and convinced the nation's army has sought to minimize civilian casualties.
Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, said the ICC move would likely harden resolve and give the war cabinet license to hit Gaza and Lebanon harder still.
"There's a strong strand of Israeli feeling that runs deep, which says 'if we're being condemned for what we are doing, we might just as well go full gas'," he told Reuters.
While Netanyahu has received wide support at home over the ICC action, the same is not true of the domestic graft case, where he is accused of bribery, breach of trust and fraud.
The trial opened in 2020 and Netanyahu is finally scheduled to take the stand next month after the court rejected his latest request to delay testimony on the grounds that he had been too busy overseeing the war to prepare his defense.
He was due to give evidence last year but the date was put back because of the war. His critics have accused him of prolonging the Gaza conflict to delay judgment day and remain in power, which he denies. Always a divisive figure in Israel, public trust in Netanyahu fell sharply in the wake of the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas assault on southern Israel that caught his government off guard, cost around 1,200 lives.
Israel's subsequent campaign has killed more than 44,000 people and displaced nearly all Gaza's population at least once, triggering a humanitarian catastrophe, according to Gaza officials.
The prime minister has refused advice from the state attorney general to set up an independent commission into what went wrong and Israel's subsequent conduct of the war.
He is instead looking to establish an inquiry made up only of politicians, which critics say would not provide the sort of accountability demanded by the ICC.
Popular Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth said the failure to order an independent investigation had prodded the ICC into action. "Netanyahu preferred to take the risk of arrest warrants, just as long as he did not have to form such a commission," it wrote on Friday.
ARREST THREAT
The prime minister faces a difficult future living under the shadow of an ICC warrant, joining the ranks of only a few leaders to have suffered similar humiliation, including Libya's Muammar Gaddafi and Serbia's Slobodan Milosevic.
It also means he risks arrest if he travels to any of the court's 124 signatory states, including most of Europe.
One place he can safely visit is the United States, which is not a member of the ICC, and Israeli leaders hope US President-elect Donald Trump will bring pressure to bear by imposing sanctions on ICC officials.
Mike Waltz, Trump's nominee for national security advisor, has already promised tough action: "You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC & UN come January,” he wrote on X on Friday. In the meantime, Israeli officials are talking to their counterparts in Western capitals, urging them to ignore the arrest warrants, as Hungary has already promised to do.
However, the charges are not going to disappear soon, if at all, meaning fellow leaders will be increasingly reluctant to have relations with Netanyahu, said Yuval Shany, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute.
"In a very direct sense, there is going to be more isolation for the Israeli state going forward," he told Reuters.